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China-Japan-Koreas
Korea on its own as China pulls out
2006-10-07
NORTH Korea can have a future or it can have nuclear weapons but "it cannot have both", the US said, as staunch ally China warned "no one is going to protect" the regime should it go ahead with atomic tests.
“staunch ally China warned "no one is going to protect" the regime should it go ahead with atomic tests...”


Beijing's ominous caution breaks a longstanding policy of avoiding criticism of Pyongyang, and leaves the Stalinist state without the support of its sole powerful friend. "I think if North Koreans do have the nuclear test, I think that they have to realise that they will face serious consequences," China's UN ambassador, Wang Guangya, said.

The rebuke spells trouble for North Korea, which faces a relatively united front against its nuclear aspirations, in sharp contrast to the fractured reaction to a series of missile tests in July. At that time, China accused Japan of overreacting in calling for sanctions.
Posted by:Fred

#30  Yep, agree, Zen - ZF thumped the crux dead-on.

If China isn't playing PR this time, then shit won't happen and poofy will have to climb down. If it's just more of the shifting triangulation component of their so-called foreign policy, then shit be a-commin. Sad that it won't fall on China until after others have paid for their arrogance.
Posted by: .com   2006-10-07 21:16  

#29  The bottom line here is that if we want China to stop North Korea from exploding a nuke, we need to make China an offer it can't refuse. The 27% Schumer tariff on Chinese goods might concentrate Chinese minds a little. Every time the Chinese balk, we could double that tariff. When the Chinese economy starts recording double digit negative growth instead of double digit positive growth, the Chinese government will start to see reason - or at least appear to do so. And Kim will start to behave himself.

Word, ZF.

China already controls Kim and North Korea - it supplies - for free - the fuel oil that keeps North Korea lit and warm, and the food (again, for free) that keeps the leadership fed. All China has to do is shut off the free stuff, and Kim will be killed by his generals in an effort to get the free stuff flowing again. As long as China continues to give North Korea enough free stuff to keep the leadership fed and warm, nobody else can do much about North Korea. This is why China has always had to be involved in talks involving North Korea, and why these talks have always failed. Because North Korea is China's Rottweiler, and China's not going to stop feeding it.

Word, again, ZF. As it always has been, China is the real problem. All else is window dressing.
Posted by: Zenster   2006-10-07 21:02  

#28  ZF: Just one example - cities in the booming coastal areas of southern China have absorbed a hundred million migrants from other regions, many of whom do not even speak Mandarin, China's lingua franca - which means that they would be just like an Appalachian hillbilly stranded in Poland - or a North Korean stranded in China.

Or an illegal alien from Mexico working a construction site. Look at it this way - we have absorbed perhaps 15 million illegal aliens from Latin America, we provide them all kinds of free social services that strain our tax revenues, our economic growth rate is about 4% and we only have a population of 300 million. But the Chinese are going to have problems absorbing 20 million people from North Korea - its entire population - despite providing no free social services to out of area immigrants, having a double digit economic growth rate and a population base of 1.3 billion? This is nothing more than Chinese government propaganda to convince gullible foreigners that China has a stake in reining Kim in and that Kim isn't China's handpuppet.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-10-07 20:09  

#27  NS: A Nork collapse with significant refugees to China would get a bit more publicity than other refugee episodes. I suspect the Chinese would prefer not to be bothered by inquiring minds.

A few points. One, China doesn't give journalists the freedom to publish what they want to publish. The tiny handful of Chinese journalists who break the rules are routinely given long jail terms for revealing state secrets, even when they work for the New York Times.

Two, China has a population of 1.3 billion people, and while underemployment (on the several acre plots of land that constitute most Chinese farms) is a problem, starvation is not. China can absorb the entire North Korean population (20 million) without breaking a sweat. Just one example - cities in the booming coastal areas of southern China have absorbed a hundred million migrants from other regions, many of whom do not even speak Mandarin, China's lingua franca - which means that they would be just like an Appalachian hillbilly stranded in Poland - or a North Korean stranded in China.

Three, China isn't much concerned about bad publicity. Think about how it's harvesting organs from FLG practitioners. (Hey - I've just thought of a new use for North Korean refugees - organ donors). And if China is brutal enough, North Koreans aren't going to want to move to China - i.e. China won't have a refugee problem.

NS: China does not wish to control Kim or NoKor, it wishes to be rid of him and it and to capture SoKor as it did Hong Kong. That is the only reason to keep troops there, distasteful as that may be.

China already controls Kim and North Korea - it supplies - for free - the fuel oil that keeps North Korea lit and warm, and the food (again, for free) that keeps the leadership fed. All China has to do is shut off the free stuff, and Kim will be killed by his generals in an effort to get the free stuff flowing again. As long as China continues to give North Korea enough free stuff to keep the leadership fed and warm, nobody else can do much about North Korea. This is why China has always had to be involved in talks involving North Korea, and why these talks have always failed. Because North Korea is China's Rottweiler, and China's not going to stop feeding it.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-10-07 20:00  

#26  A Nork collapse with significant refugees to China would get a bit more publicity than other refugee episodes. I suspect the Chinese would prefer not to be bothered by inquiring minds.

China does not wish to control Kim or NoKor, it wishes to be rid of him and it and to capture SoKor as it did Hong Kong. That is the only reason to keep troops there, distasteful as that may be.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-10-07 19:23  

#25  The bottom line here is that if we want China to stop North Korea from exploding a nuke, we need to make China an offer it can't refuse. The 27% Schumer tariff on Chinese goods might concentrate Chinese minds a little. Every time the Chinese balk, we could double that tariff. When the Chinese economy starts recording double digit negative growth instead of double digit positive growth, the Chinese government will start to see reason - or at least appear to do so. And Kim will start to behave himself.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-10-07 19:21  

#24  A: I have long considered an interesting possibility here. The US could make a deal with China. If the Norks step over the line, the US wouldn't police them up, with great destruction, the Chinese would.

Here's the logic. All the Nork weaponry is pointed South, and the Chinese have all the air and ground forces to sweep the place overnight. Much less danger of the Norks getting a nuke missile off, or annihilating Seoul.

I think the Chinese are just posturing. Within moments of US airstrikes, you are going to hear the Chinese warning Uncle Sam about Chinese intervention to defend their Korean "brothers". Fact is that China doesn't need to invade to remove Kim.

And an invasion would cost billions of dollars, and run the risk of getting the South Koreans involved. The ROK's don't have a problem with North Koreans, but they really have a problem with Chinese troops in North Korea. Korean nationalism involves a feeling of ethnic solidarity with the North Koreans, a feeling of racial solidarity with the Chinese (which doesn't extend to the Japanese, of course) and a traditional xenophobia against people neither Korean nor yellow (hence the anti-Americanism). Once China enters North Korea, it joins Japan on the shit list, and the possibility of a South Korean counter-invasion is extremely high - I would expect North and South Korean forces to coordinate a move north to counter the Chinese armies. A Chinese invasion of North Korea wouldn't be like America's Vietnam War - it would be like China's Korean War - a horrendously expensive, high-casualty disaster for the Chinese military that led to decades of debt to the Soviet Union for equipment purchased on credit.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-10-07 19:11  

#23  NS: The Chinese don't want to see Kimmie fall for the same reason. They don't want a flood of refugees even greater than what they have now.

China doesn't provide aid for refugees. If they find work, they eat. If not? They die, and the local morgue cremates their cadavers. China has 1.3 billion people, 30% of whom don't speak Mandarin - the national language. North Korean refugees will blend in just fine with north eastern China's several million-strong Korean ethnic minority.

NS: I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese preference is for the Norks to start a nulear war so they can just clean the place with Enhanced Radiation Weapons and then let Chinese immigrants push down to the 49th parallel.

North Korea is China's pet Doberman. Everything that North Korea does, it does with China's permission. If China really wanted to stop Kim, they could just shut off his fuel - his generals would shoot him overnight to get the oil flowing again. Kim is merely China's handpuppet, nothing more - and all of the Chinese "analysts" are parroting the Chinese party line (as they are required to, being Party members and government employees), not providing analysis.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-10-07 18:54  

#22  I don't see the People's Republic of China having any qualms about exterminating all future refugees from N. Korea, should they get to cause problems.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418   2006-10-07 17:31  

#21  Bad Thoth! Bad, to your hovel!
Posted by: Shipman   2006-10-07 17:29  

#20  Yep, paying their own money out is the one thing worse than nuclear war to the SKors.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2006-10-07 14:55  

#19  The Chinese don't want to see Kimmie fall for the same reason. They don't want a flood of refugees even greater than what they have now. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese preference is for the Norks to start a nulear war so they can just clean the place with Enhanced Radiation Weapons and then let Chinese immigrants push down to the 49th parallel.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-10-07 14:51  

#18  Sorry Moose, SKors will never go along. Even if the scenario plays out as you say and the SKors escape damage in the war, they'll never agree to foot the bill for reconstruction.
Posted by: Steve White   2006-10-07 14:46  

#17  Great scenario, Anonymoose, would be good for everybody bar kimmie if it turned out that way.
Posted by: anonymous5089   2006-10-07 13:20  

#16  I have long considered an interesting possibility here. The US could make a deal with China. If the Norks step over the line, the US wouldn't police them up, with great destruction, the Chinese would.

Here's the logic. All the Nork weaponry is pointed South, and the Chinese have all the air and ground forces to sweep the place overnight. Much less danger of the Norks getting a nuke missile off, or annihilating Seoul.

Okay, so China conquers Nork, and sets up a temporary puppet government. What next?

Under Chinese and US auspices, both Koreas begin serious, timetabled discussion on reunification.

First of all, out of the deal, the Chinese get a Korea that loves them, a major trading partner, and a nation set up like Hong Kong that already does things "the Chinese way", so is no threat. China makes lots of billions of dollars out of the deal.

For its part, the US can pull its military out of the peninsula. With neutrality rules in place, it keeps Korea as a major trading partner, too. It no longer has to fret about Norks missiles and nukes. We save billions of dollars every year.

Even the Norks win big in the deal. They get to eat for once.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2006-10-07 13:16  

#15  
Kimmie is safe to assume nothing will be done. It is difficult to see how any one would be a net gainer by taking action against Kimmie.

That is something we have to change. Kim's All Night Boom Boom Shop has way too much business as it is. Allowing him to conduct a nuclear test will be the equivalent of okaying a parking lot sale to all and sundry rogue regimes.

But "if the U.S. removes sanctions ... then tensions can be eased.

Oh ho! Blackmail! I wondered what that smell was.

You swar mosquitos BEFORE they bite.

Word, Redneck Jim.
Posted by: Zenster   2006-10-07 10:16  

#14  Ok, ok! You can have your trains back! Now will you be my buddy again?
Posted by: Kim Jong Il   2006-10-07 09:02  

#13  You swar mosquitos BEFORE they bite.
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2006-10-07 08:50  

#12  A North Korea expert in China, the North's closest ally, said only the removal of American economic sanctions against Pyongyang could dissuade the country from carrying out a nuclear test.

"North Korea has already made a decision to carry out a test," said Li Dunqiu, of China's State Council Development Research Center, a Cabinet-level think tank. But "if the U.S. removes sanctions ... then tensions can be eased. Otherwise launching a nuclear test is unavoidable for North Korea."

The United States imposed economic restrictions on North Korea last year to punish it for alleged counterfeiting and money laundering.

Looks like the Macao bank thing is really hurting them. Hurting them so much that they're getting desperate.
Posted by: gromky   2006-10-07 08:46  

#11  Kimmie is safe to assume nothing will be done. It is difficult to see how any one would be a net gainer by taking action against Kimmie.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-10-07 06:22  

#10  Kimmie's like the test rat that can choose to press level A and get a food pellet, or press lever B and get a woodie.
Posted by: .com   2006-10-07 02:48  

#9  Too late. It's pregnant.
Posted by: Thoth   2006-10-07 02:37  

#8  Damn, Zenster, OUCH!
Posted by: mac   2006-10-07 02:18  

#7  Anybody got any ideas how he thinks he's going to feed what's left of his people if he pulls this stunt?

I hear that the tree bark is approaching perfect ripeness.
Posted by: Zenster   2006-10-07 01:49  

#6  Let them blow up their tunnel.
Posted by: Super Hose   2006-10-07 01:47  

#5  Is TAIWAN watching, + READY FOR ANYTHING???
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2006-10-07 01:30  

#4  Anybody got any ideas how he thinks he's going to feed what's left of his people if he pulls this stunt?

do you think he cares? He's assuming a Nuke test will put him on the BIG stage, possibly a UNSC seat. Daffy idiot, but he's consistent
Posted by: Frank G   2006-10-07 01:19  

#3  China's CMC-Generals are reportedly extens studying Russia's AIRBORNE FORCES + MOBILE RR Units. Since OPER IRAGI FREEDOM, they have allegedly intensified their scrutinies.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2006-10-07 01:18  

#2  His psychological profile points directly to such an ill-advised move.

His chemical profile might point to it, too. I wonder if anyone has a hair sample of his to check for lead poisoning. Hard to believe someone could be so daft, but there he is. Anybody got any ideas how he thinks he's going to feed what's left of his people if he pulls this stunt?
Posted by: gorb   2006-10-07 00:44  

#1  I can only imagine that someone spelled it out to China how North Korea going nuclear meant a nuclear Japan and Taiwan. If this is the case, I can only hope that Kim goes right ahead with his test. His psychological profile points directly to such an ill-advised move.

We desperately need Japan and Taiwan to have atomic bombs. Normally, I would not be for further proliferation of nuclear weapons but both of these Asian countries have demonstrated good stewardship of their militaries and of the democratic process. Japan has been a little bit squiffy about proliferating dual-use technology, think Toshiba's milling machines being sent to Russia for propeller machining, but the overall necessity of curtailing China's expansionist tendencies overrides such concerns.
Posted by: Zenster   2006-10-07 00:19  

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