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Europe
Estonian-American exile defeats country's final Soviet leader for presidency
2006-09-26
From the Baltic Times

TALLINN -- Cheers erupted in bars and shops across Tallinn as Toomas Hendrik Ilves was declared Estonia's new president on Sept. 23. "This was a choice between looking backwards or moving forwards," explained one jubilant celebrator. Ilves, 52, won 174 votes in the Electoral College, beating incumbent Arnold Ruutel, 78, who gathered 162 votes. Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Estonia's new president

It's been a surreal weekend for me living in Tallinn. A couple years ago, I was shared cab fare with this guy when we worked at the same university. I USED TO SHARE CAB FARE WITH THE PRESIDENT.

I just like saying that ...


Until the last weeks of campaigning, Ruutel was widely expected to enjoy an easy re-election.

Ruutel was the last general secretary of the Estonian SSR. He only spoke Russian and Estonian, and was an empty suit when it came to influencing events. He got elected 5 years ago because the ruling-right parties This election came down to a split between the generations as much as anything. Ilves his in his 50s, Ruutel was 77.

Yet the nation reacted angrily toward the underhanded politicking of RuutelÂ’s supporting parties, the Center Party and the PeopleÂ’s Union both minority left-of-center parties, which forced the Parliamentary round of voting to fail and brought about the formation of the Electoral College.

I'll say the Estonians were angry, as much as Estonians ever do get. There were rallies, demonstrations, and a huge outdoor concert right outside the door of the Electoral College before the vote. The Center and the People's Union parties didn't allow their parliamentarians to even pick up their buzzers during the election, which meant that a plurality couldn't be had by any stretch. They thought they'd have a better chance in the Electoral College, which adds representatives to the parliament voters with delegates from the country municipalities. They were wrong ...

The final result was viewed as much as a protest vote against Ruutel and his supporting parties as a vote in favor of Ilves.

The 174-162 vote makes it looks more decisive than it was. Ilves got two more votes than he needed to win. The pubs in Old Town went bananas when the live count got Ilves to the brink, and the woman counting the ballots still had ballots in her hand.

Ilves, a Social Democrat who has served as EstoniaÂ’s foreign minister and is currently a member of the European Parliament, said he wanted to re-unite the nation, which had been split by the divisive election campaign. He said Estonia should become one of EuropeÂ’s leading idea generators.

Ilves also gave an indication of the direction of EstoniaÂ’s future relations with Russia. "The road to Moscow goes via Brussels," he said.

"In a number of fields we have seen that after the enlargement of the European Union the influence of the new member states has been significantly smaller than what we would have liked it to be. I believe that Estonia should be one of those who start taking the floor more in Europe."

Much has been made of IlvesÂ’ western leanings.

The oppossition tried to turn it into an issue, by suggesting -- stop me if you've heard this before -- that he was a CIA agent.

He grew up in the United States and was educated as a psychologist, attending and receiving degrees from Columbia University and the University of Pennsylvania and then working in academic positions.

Ilves worked as an analyst and researcher with Radio Free Europe in Munich, Germany, from 1984-1988, and as head of the Estonian desk of Radio Free Europe from 1988-1993.

After returning to Estonia and relinquishing his US citizenship, Ilves served as Estonia's ambassador to the United States from 1993-1996, becoming foreign minister in December 1996 and serving in that position until September 1998. He then began campaigning for the Moderates (now the Estonian Social Democratic Party) in the parliamentary elections.

In March 1999, after the elections, he became foreign minister again, serving until 2002. He was member of the parliament from 2002-2004.

During 2001-2002 he was the leader of the Social Democrats. In 2004 Ilves was elected to the European Parliament, remaining a member of his party's governing board. He sits with the Party of European Socialists group.

At home, the Social Democratic Party is part of the opposition, siding on a number of key policy issues with the center-right opposition rather than the other center-left parliamentary parties.

Ilves sees as his political role model Daniel Patrick Moynihan, which is why he wears the bow-tie. He would be a liberal's liberal on social issues in the States -- he would like to see a Scandinavian-style safety net in Estonia (which will never happen). But he's totally hawkish on foreign policy issues, particularly Russia (as you might expect the son of refugees to be).

Ilves' election means that now all the three Baltic states have presidents coming from the exile community.

Vaira Vike-Freiberga has been the Baltic star, although Adamkus in Lithuania isn't bad, either. But Vike-Freiberga is stepping down soon, and Adamkus is in his 70s, I believe.

Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip was quick to congratulate Ilves, and predicted he would unite the nation and project a positive international image.

You look around Europe, and you don't see much leadership to be inspired about. Brown? Prodi? Merkel might be a international star in the making, but she has a thin majority. I think its rock-solid that Ilves will be punching above his weight on the international stage very soon. I'd recommend his addition to the Rantburg mugshot archive.

"We are happy that we were able to carry out the will of the people," Ansip said. "We have reason to be glad not so much because Toomas Hendrik Ilves was our candidate, but first and foremost because Estonia got a good president," he said.

Bush will get his first look at Ilves when he visits the country at the end of November. It will be the first visit of a sitting U.S. president to the country.
Posted by:Mizzou Mafia

#10  And looking back on this entire thread, how to do I chip in to get some spellcheck on Rantburg? ;-p
Posted by: Mizzou Mafia   2006-09-26 18:20  

#9  Seafarious,

I would see the best short-term good for U.S. policy in the Baltic States, (and Eastern Europe) to lift the visa restrictions that exist today. There has been talk about it, but little action.

My Estonian girlfriend has to pay around $170 for a U.S. visa when she goes with me on a visit. That's when the average salary is a little north of $400 a month. There are plenty of good Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, and Polish kids, who are now going to places like the U.K. to work, who would go to the U.S. if the visa restrictions were lifted, as they have been for countries like FRANCE. France was the home of Richard Reid for one, and I can't remember the last time a terrorist bomber came out of this region.

I think this is a travesty in the making. The U.S. has the opportunity to affect the outlook of the younger generation of these countries, but is preventing their best and brightest from coming there, even to work.
Posted by: Mizzou Mafia   2006-09-26 18:17  

#8  Thanks for the update Mizzou. I'd lost track of the old bugger. I was always surprised the US State Dept and the gummit permitted him to accept the job. Hope he's still cashing retirement checks.
Posted by: Besoeker   2006-09-26 18:14  

#7  Besoeker, Einseln basically broke his spear in his stint as the chief of their armed forces.

The organization was still too heavily Sovietized in the mid-1990s. Einseln made a lot of changes, but a little like Rumsfeld, he fought inertia during his stint.

I don't know where he is now, but to his credit, the Estonian armed forces are much more professional than they've ever been. They are in both Afghanistan and Iraq.

Their speciality is IED bombs. Some of the bomb-sniffing dogs that came back from Iraq in the last year are known by their first names.

They are talking about making the Estonian military a voluntary force, which should improve things.
Posted by: Mizzou Mafia   2006-09-26 18:09  

#6  Thanks for the comments.

I forgot some interesting details. The effect of Ilves' presidency:

One, the president has veto power over the parlament and is the one that invites the dominant parties to form a coalition. That's about it; the position is largely ceremonial.

But I predict two outcomes. Even though Ilves is a "Social Democrat", he will see himself in the mold of the first real post-Soviet president, Lennart Meri. Which means that he will try to be above politics. He told his party today to stop running recruitment ads with his face on them, as his party won anything. No, he won because the center-right parties supported him over the candidate of the left.

The left parties are totally screwed. I asked Ilves once about the leader of the Center Party, Edgar Savisaar (who was the main party who didn't allow his members to vote in the first parliamentary election), and he started to froth at the mouth (pull a Fox-style Clinton). Edgar Savisaar stepped down as prime minister after he was caught secretly recording conversations with his opponents (including Ilves). Even though Ilves is on the left side of the spectrum politicallly on domestic issues, he will not let the left parties form a coalition if he can help it. He's going to stick it to the pro-Russian, anti-American left.

Two, I see Mart Laar, the wunderkind behind the flat tax in Estonia becoming prime minister again. By the end of the year. He's been out of government, writing books and getting Cato awards. His time in the wilderness is about over. This is the guy that took the only economics book he'd ever read, by Friedman, and made the whole thing as government policy.

So, the end result -- Estonia will be more pro-American and NATO friendly than it ever has. "Eesti on vaba!!" (Estonia is free!!) was a sign I saw on Saturday.

Estonians certainly haven't been this fired up politically since 1991. And it was fun to be here for it.
Posted by: Mizzou Mafia   2006-09-26 18:00  

#5  Thanks, Mizzou.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-09-26 16:33  

#4  The Mizzou Mafia on assignment in Estonia? Rove really *is* that good!

Thanks for the commentary, MM, let us know what US policy objectives would help Estonia best...
Posted by: Seafarious   2006-09-26 16:16  

#3  good news, good comments, MM!
Posted by: Frank G   2006-09-26 16:15  

#2  Americans seem to do quite well in Estonia. I remember an old, retired SF Colonel by the name of Einseln who became the Estonian Army Chief in the 1990's. Don't know what ever happended to him, retired retired maybe.
Posted by: Besoeker   2006-09-26 16:05  

#1  Excellent commentary, Mizzou.
Posted by: mcsegeek1   2006-09-26 16:04  

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