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| Home Front: WoT |
| 60 year old analysis |
| 2006-09-13 |
| I don't know if this has appeared at the 'burg before, but it is interesting. The Moslem world sprawls around half the east, from the Pacific across Asia and Africa to the Atlantic, along one of the greatest of trade routes; in its center is an area extremely rich in oil; over it will run some of the most strategically important air routes. With few exceptions, the states which it includes are marked by poverty, ignorance, and stagnation. It is full of discontent and frustration, yet alive with consciousness of its inferiority and with determination to achieve some kind of general betterment. Two basic urges meet head-on in this area, and conflict is inherent in this collision of interests. These urges reveal themselves in daily news accounts of killings and terrorism, of pressure groups in opposition, and of raw nationalism and naked expansionism masquerading as diplomatic maneuvers. The urges tie together the tangled threads of power politics which—snarled in the lap of the United Nations Assembly—lead back to the centers of Islamic pressure and to the capitals of the world's biggest nations. The first of these urges originates within the Moslems' own sphere. The Moslems remember the power with which once they not only ruled their own domains but also overpowered half of Europe, yet they are painfully aware of their present economic, cultural, and military impoverishment. Thus a terrific internal pressure is building up in their collective thinking. The Moslems intend, by any means possible, to regain political independence and to reap the profits of their own resources, which in recent times and up to the present have been surrendered to the exploitation of foreigners who could provide capital investments. The area, in short, has an inferiority complex, and its activities are thus as unpredictable as those of any individual so motivated. The other fundamental urge originates externally. The world's great and near-great powers cover the economic riches of the Moslem area and are also mindful of the strategic locations of some of the domains. Their actions are also difficult to predict, because each of these powers sees itself in the position of the customer who wants to do his shopping in a hurry because he happens to know the store is going to be robbed. In an atmosphere so sated with the inflammable gases of distrust and ambition, the slightest spark could lead to an explosion which might implicate every country committed to the maintenance of world peace through the United Nations Organization. An understanding of the Moslem world and of the stresses and forces operative within it is thus an essential part of the basic intelligence framework. The Present Estimate If the Moslem states were strong and stable, their behavior would be more predictable. They are, however, weak and torn by internal stresses; furthermore, their peoples are insufficiently educated to appraise propaganda or to understand the motives of those who promise a new Heaven and a new Earth. Because of the strategic position of the Moslem world and the relentlessness of its peoples, the Moslem states constitute a potential threat to world peace. There cannot be permanent world stability, when one-seventh of the earth's population exists under the economic and political conditions that are imposed upon the Moslems. And in the last 60 years, it is fair to say that Geroge Bush is the first to attempt to change those conditions, however unsuccessful his efforts may thusfar appear. That this is so should also indicate how immense the effort will be. The alternative is glassing, to which I am not unalterably opposed. But we will give the nice guy effort a little longer and wait till the last possible moment to implement the alternative. Our real mistake is not making it clear enough that we will indeed implement that alternative if pushed far enough. Somebody needs to explain to the Moslem leadership that it is not dumb blind luck that put us in the position we hold, though we will refuse no assistance available. |
| Posted by:Nimble Spemble |
| #3 Our real mistake is not making it clear enough that we will indeed implement that alternative if pushed far enough. This is Bush's one great failing. The nuclear option is the fulcrum of all other levers we apply in the Middle East. Not making this plain only emboldens our enemies and needlessly complicates our efforts. Were the situation reversed, atomic weapons would have already been used against us. That we so cautiously refrain from any allusion to them is a disservice to our soldiers and the security of our nation. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-09-13 23:38 |
| #2 It's like listening to my uncle in 1967. I thought he fell from a cherry tree and that influenced his faculties. I was a kid, it was a brave new world albeit jetsons paradigm did not materialize at the time and probably won't for some time. I laughed, thinking how in this modern world people (certain kind) can indulge in such a lunacy. I still thought he was not correct in 1990. How things change... |
| Posted by: twobyfour 2006-09-13 23:08 |
| #1 Amen, NS. Good article and good comments. I know the motives behind the present course, but history would predict failure. I guess we can always say we tried. The only thing that this cult understands is brutal force. We need to apply that now. They certainly intend to if/when they become capable. |
| Posted by: SOP35/Rat 2006-09-13 12:25 |