#4 Some in India's Military Intelligence establishment believe General Musharraf is again considering a Kargil-style enterprise. In recent weeks, the 19 Division, a reserve formation of the Muree-based X Corps, which has its peace-time headquarters at Jhelum, moved to concentration area at Chakoti, in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir. Troops of the Mangla-based 26 and 28 Brigades, along with the 7 Azad Kashmir Brigade from Jhari Khas are thought to have reinforced the Division, along with significant numbers of Special Forces personnel. In addition, the Jalalpur Jattan-based 333 Infantry Brigade, part of the 23 Division's reserves, has moved to forward positions facing the town of Naushera in Rajouri. Such movements typically precede a sharp, localised military thrust, which in this case would threaten Indian positions in Gulmarg and Poonch.
No one believes these troop movements are in themselves indicators of war. However, they suggest that the idea of a limited war in Jammu and Kashmir continues to engage the minds of Pakistani military strategists. An Indian strike against terror training camps in Pakistan, provoked for example by a massive terrorist attack of the kind seen in Mumbai in July, could be the pretext for such an attack. So, too, could large-scale artillery exchanges along the LoC. Most important of all, a massive escalation of violence in Balochistan, on election-eve, is certain to provoke charges that India is underwriting the secessionists — and push Gen. Musharraf to appropriate nationalist sentiment through military action.
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Miran Shah: Hundreds of army troops withdrew from posts on Sunday in a tribal region where it`s believed Osama Bin Laden may be hiding, as an intelligence official said Islamic militants and the government were close to unveiling a peace deal. However, there were conflicting accounts as to whether the deal has been formally signed.