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| Israel-Palestine-Jordan |
| Israeli general plots war with Iran |
| 2006-08-29 |
| Israel has appointed a top general to oversee a war against Iran, prompting speculation that it is preparing for possible military action against Tehran's nuclear program. Maj. Gen. Elyezer Shkedy, Israel's air force chief, will be overall commander for the "Iran front," military sources told the London Sunday Telegraph. News of the appointment comes just days before a United Nations deadline expires for Iran to give up its nuclear program, which Western governments fear will be used to produce atomic weapons. Despite Iran's offer last week to engage in "serious talks" on the matter, Israel fears even more than other Western nations that the offer is simply to buy time for Tehran to secure all the technology it needs to build the bomb. "Israel is becoming extremely concerned now with what they see as Iran's delaying tactics," said Israeli Iran analyst Meir Javedanfar. "[The planners] think negotiations are going nowhere, and Iran is becoming a major danger for Israel. Now they are getting ready for living with a nuclear Iran or letting the military take care of it." The prospect of Israel "living with" a nuclear Iran appears remote. Last week, Giora Eiland, Israel's former national security adviser, told reporters that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would "sacrifice half of Iran for the sake of eliminating Israel." |
| Posted by:Nimble Spemble |
| #39 Iran = Russia > Govt. officials or personages in the know have claimed that domestic fuel supplies will allegedly end or run out in circa 20-25 years. Besides its oil reserves, Iran is along the strategic direction of attack into southern Russia = READ, RUSSIA'S VITAL FOOD etc. BELTS. Iran is also an end-trail for CHINA's old SILK ROAD - Communist China does not have much of a commercial merchant or air fleet ergo must still depend on ancient land-sea routes, mostly land, for the bulk of domestic trade. IS A MAJOR REASON FOR SO-CALLED "BATTLE FOR INDIA" AND WHY COMMIES-MAOISTS ARE HELPING INDIAN-SPECIFIC SOCIALIST + TERROR + SEPARATIST GROUPS, besides of course NEPAL, PAKISTAN, BURMA, BANGLEDESH, MALAYSIA and former USSR -Stans in CENASIA/SCO. INDIA not only provides China wid major trade routes into the Indian Ocean + Africa but also protects the southern flanks and sub-routes of the old "Silk Road" in Central Asia. As for 2008 the US DemoLeft need more than obscenely criticizing Dubya-GOP and defective Fascist = Hitlerist = well-meaning Limited Communist-Totalitarianist, or female Jihadis blowing themselves up, etal. to win the Oval Office or the Congress. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2006-08-29 23:43 |
| #38 My concern with your plan is if we let them survive they stand the opportunity to rally the country against us and rally the world opinion. 49 Pan, I don't think anyone here is advocating that we take Iran's fuel supplies offline and then slowly back away. That merely would be Phase I of a longer term strategy that includes sequentially crippling more and more of Iran's military/industrial complex until the mullahs and their layers of protection are stripped away. The net result must always be regime change and/or dismantling of their nuclear program, in that order. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-08-29 23:24 |
| #37 It either won't work, and they fall with the blustering NK, or it does work and they blow themselves up, or it does work and the regional world community shuts them down. I wonder if we shouldn't buy some popcorn. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2006-08-29 23:09 |
| #36 A lot of reports talk about the youth in Iran being restless. I hope your right and wish they would get active and kill the black hats. My concern with your plan is if we let them survive they stand the opportunity to rally the country against us and rally the world opinion. They will do anything they can as a last ditch effort and go after the rest of the middle east. If we do anything we have to strike the military infrastructure in the process. |
| Posted by: 49 Pan 2006-08-29 22:14 |
| #35 I agree, Mouse - BTW we understood |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-08-29 21:55 |
| #34 dang...I meant "RG's" as in Iranian Republican Guard. |
| Posted by: anymouse 2006-08-29 21:45 |
| #33 49Pan...My feeling is that the "Iranian natives" are restless. Most of the population is under the agae of 25 and have no memory of the fall fo the Shah and the rise of theocracy. Though they are generally persion-nationalists, and shia to boot...they hate the black hats. A series of strikes to knock out gas and diesel supplies would paralize the black hats and limit the ability of the RP's to quell a massive uprising...which is simmering under the surface. Just my 2 cents. |
| Posted by: anymouse 2006-08-29 21:43 |
| #32 Destroying the reserves and gas will only delay what we will have to do sooner or later. We must destroy their military and political leadership. Mous is right on the first pass, hitting their econimic structure gas etc..., but unless we want to burdon our kids with fighting them again we must destroy them. |
| Posted by: 49 Pan 2006-08-29 20:27 |
| #31 basic supplies need not include fuel, if you don't mind throwing the country into an emergency mode where most people don't work -- and are conveniently dependent on the MMs for food and survival in the most direct way. Certain ethnic and political groups might find themselves missing out, know what I mean? |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-08-29 19:57 |
| #30 #9: anymouse, reports are that the mullahs have stockpiled 2-3 years' worth of basic supplies. Well let's see, I use about three gallons of gasoline a week, times 52 weeks and three years makes a three year stockpile (Just for me alone) equals about 500 gallons, not to mention that's an absolute minimum, just for going to work and some stops on the way at the grocery, not to mention oil changes, occasional tires etc. That "Three Year Stockpile" they brag about does not in fact exist. |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2006-08-29 19:53 |
| #29 Interesting comment about the Russians and Chinese, however, they are very different in a primary respect. Russia is a producer of oil and benefits from an increase in price, whereas China is an importer of oil and a major price change would decimate their economy. It is not in the interest of China for the 'balloon to go up' on this and they are therefore strongly incented to prevent this from happening. |
| Posted by: Brett 2006-08-29 19:15 |
| #28 I don't expect to see any action before the 2008 elections unless there's a causus of some variety. |
| Posted by: 6 2006-08-29 19:01 |
| #27 I wouldn't expect to see any actions before the elections |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-08-29 18:48 |
| #26 Nimble, from my reading of comments here, he may well lose the house if he *doesn't* do the right thing as regards Iran. |
| Posted by: Tony (UK) 2006-08-29 18:48 |
| #25 Well, best get the fwench working on a cease fire resolution to take to the security council, what? |
| Posted by: kelly 2006-08-29 18:42 |
| #24 He's also got 2 years to do it. And he's a lot more concerned about getting a Reupublican in the White House than in dealing with Iran in the next two years, unless he learns something new about Iran. This may not be a problem the people are willing to let him handle. And if he looses the House, he'll have an impeachment taking up all his time. Thus he's also going to be concerned that there be a steady set of hands taking the tiller when he leaves office. He can't do just one thing. And this may turn out to be one thing he can't do. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-08-29 18:34 |
| #23 Why not BUY the Russians and the Chinese. We can pay them with parts of the Caspian Reserve. Russia can name a price for allotments of the Reserves. China likewise. They get to develope the Oil and Gas potentials after the sucessful conclusion of the conflict. We also collapse Iran down by half and parcel out the ethnics into autonomous regions.. We all become partners. Nothing like bloody hands and complicit intent. The Iranians can piss up a rope. They either overthrow the Regime now or they suffer later for sitting there waiting to be run up the pole. Once we are in, we cant afford to play nice. |
| Posted by: Angleton 9 2006-08-29 18:32 |
| #22 Angleton9: Iran has first strike capability on Israel's power infrastructure. But they couldn't do it without Syrian support. Sunnis have been acting feverishly to detach Syria from the Shiite Axis. I predict that Syria will be secretly neutralized by early next month, and Iran attacked before the beginning of October. Unfortunately, Ahmaninejad's threat to turn the Gulf into a "cauldrin of fire," is real, thus, attackers will have no alternative but to use nuclear weapons. Economic stability ends, will justify mass destruction. For those who are unaware, Iranian oil fields are mostly in Arab Shiite areas. Minorities could be conditioned to petition to end Persian-Iranian sovereignty, which is a result of de-colonization agreements to which effected peoples were not party. If everything goes well, Iran will be turned into an impoverished shell by October. Then it will be sectioned off piecemeal. Whatever happens, I hope we all agree that it is not in President Bush's nature to pass on a near certain Iranian ICBM threat to the US Homeland, onto future generations. The President, etc will rely on Reagan style fait accomplis. When the Grenada and Panama operations were over without diplomatic minefields to leap over, recriminations were pointless. |
| Posted by: Snease Shaiting3550 2006-08-29 18:26 |
| #21 Nimble...You are dead on! The shia, islamocancer will self destruct at the hands of the people. |
| Posted by: anymouse 2006-08-29 18:14 |
| #20 The UN will change it's name to NSUN (Not So United Nations) when this happens. No Reuters journalist will be able to photoshop the consequences of this kind of event. Oil price will rocket above the 150$ per barrel. Big question will be what Russia and China will do when this happens. |
| Posted by: Hupeaque Shaviter5476 2006-08-29 17:36 |
| #19 The purpose of attacking the gas reserves, to me, is not so much to destroy the reserves per se as to create civil discontent leading to an Iranian led overthrow of the government. Bombing the reserves and creating work accidents at the refineries will reduce the supply of POL on the domestic market and drive up prices substantially. It's a good target, but not a magic bullet. We'll need more. Espeically soft things that make the Iranians feel like a pariah state, like keeping them out of sporting events, limiting tourism, etc. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-08-29 17:19 |
| #18 You beat me to it, Seafarious. Good catch. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-08-29 16:50 |
| #17 I don't buy that 2-3 yrs either, sorry LOTP. Iran is a dysfunctional theo/kleptocracy. They may have 2-3 yrs supply of food and nubile boys for the mullahs, but they haven't thought or worried about the civilian population. In fact, the DinnerJacket is volunteering them up (without their permission IIRC) for martyrdom to bring back |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-08-29 16:49 |
| #16 I kinda find it hard to believe they could stockpile 2-3 years of gasoline/diesel fuel for a population of almost 70 million people. Who said anything about the |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-08-29 16:49 |
| #15 The mullahs have a different definition of "people". |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2006-08-29 16:47 |
| #14 lotp...appreciate the comment. But, I kinda find it hard to believe they could stockpile 2-3 years of gasoline/diesel fuel for a population of almost 70 million people. Even if they could...it would be a target rich environment for 200-300 TLAMs. |
| Posted by: anymouse 2006-08-29 16:34 |
| #13 lopt, So the mullahs survive, their people won't! |
| Posted by: Xenophon 2006-08-29 16:28 |
| #12 So the mullahs survive, their people won't! |
| Posted by: Xenophon 2006-08-29 16:28 |
| #11 A prudent neccessity. The U.S., I'm sure, has gamed this possibilty also. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2006-08-29 16:20 |
| #10 You take the burden of blood on yourself so that others dont have to take it or risk it. You wont ever wash it off, but its better than waiting for the other bastard to hold a nuke up to your family's head and say convert to Islam and kiss my ass. Word, Angleton 9. lotp, what's to prevent us from taking out the stockpiles as well? Large quantities of gasoline lend themselves quite readily to prompt destruction. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-08-29 16:16 |
| #9 anymouse, reports are that the mullahs have stockpiled 2-3 years' worth of basic supplies. just taking out the terminals isn't going to do it, I fear. |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-08-29 16:11 |
| #8 What objectively prevents us from taking down Iran? They are wide open to being gutted. We have the power, we have the means. What we dont have is the ruthless nerve to murder. Wars are murders. They can be done in the name of high sounding terms and rationalized with the cloaks of glorious deeds. It is still one man killing another. One in the head and one in the chest. It is sometimes necessary, and someone has to do it. What is the lesser of two evils when we kill one another? You kill today so you wont have to kill more tomorrow. You remove a life now so you wont be threatened yourself when you are at a more obvious disadvantage. You take the burden of blood on yourself so that others dont have to take it or risk it. You wont ever wash it off, but its better than waiting for the other bastard to hold a nuke up to your family's head and say convert to Islam and kiss my ass. |
| Posted by: Angleton 9 2006-08-29 16:08 |
| #7 Israel can not do the job alone. More than anything. Israel must not be obliged to do the job alone. Doing so will focus upon Israel even more unwarranted hatred by other Arab states. The justifications for Jewish genocide will gain even more momentum and the endless Arab-Zionist antagonism will be ratcheted up several more notches. As this world's sole remaining superpower, it is incumbent upon America to police Iran's flagrant escalation of hostilities. With the glaring publicity given Iran's recent sponsorship of Hezbollah's atrocities against the Lebanese people and its meddling in Iraq, the window of opportunity has been flung wide open for retaliation against Iran. Now is the time, like no other, for crippling Iran. Their accession to nuclear weapons would trigger a spate of proliferation throughout the Middle East which can only be prevented by an immediate and dramatic intercession in Iran. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-08-29 15:47 |
| #6 For the umpteenth time...any war with Iran need only start and finish with the complete destruction of Iranian gasoline refineries, and gasoline terminals. Iran imports almost 75% of their gasoline. Elimination of gasoline import and production would bring the entire country to a complete halt for months...including construction of any nuclear infrastructure. |
| Posted by: anymouse 2006-08-29 15:47 |
| #5 A good plan, it seem, Angleton 9, but you forgot one thing: The vaunted United Nations will shirley not allow such aggression to stand. Or Shirley won't, one of the two. {snigger} |
| Posted by: Bobby 2006-08-29 14:10 |
| #4 That sounds perfect, Angleton 9. Would that I had the power to say, "Make it so," but I'll trust you and President Bush to handle the US end of things. ;-) And after that the Saudi princelings can be dealt with at leisure. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2006-08-29 13:53 |
| #3 Well, it's only prudent to plan for these...eventualities. I'm still not convinced we aren't in the "playing chicken" stage, however. |
| Posted by: charger 2006-08-29 13:52 |
| #2 Israel can not do the job alone. They will be backed by the United States. The options have already been conferred and discussed. Israel will move, and we will cover. It will escalate quickly and we will finish the job. A strike on Iran requires United States bases in Iraq, it requires logistics and followup. Israel will not be acting alone. Iran will counter and we will take Bandar Abbas and cut off their capacity to close the Straites of Hormuz. We will detach Khuzestan from Iran and it will never be returned to Iranian sovereignty nor will Bandar Abbas. The Iranian military will be decimated and their nuclear plants will vanish. They will not be able to rebuild them for decades. The war will get very nasty and be a lot worse than anyone imagines. Bush is already aware of the situation. It will all come to a head over the next two years. Iran will be boxed and shipped. In a war someone wins and someone loses. There will not be a rematch. With Iran gone Syria will be no problem. We are going to finish anybody who wears a funny hat. |
| Posted by: Angleton 9 2006-08-29 13:31 |
| #1 Good news if true. It looks like Israel will bomb the nuclear sites if Bush dosent. |
| Posted by: Cheregum Crelet7867 2006-08-29 11:25 |