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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Iran: Why August 22?
2006-08-18
The Iranians have been hinting that this August 22 will be very special. You gotta wonder why?

Well, the following should give us all pause for reflection.

Abd Allah Abu Bekr, Arabic merchant/1st kalief of Islam, dies
Abu Bakr's assumption of power is an extremely controversial matter, and the source of the first schism in Islam, between Sunni and Shia Islam. Shi'a believe that Muhammad's cousin and son-in-law, Ali ibn Abu Talib, was his designated successor, while Sunnis believe that Muhammad deliberately declined to designate a successor. They argue that Muhammad endorsed the traditional Arabian method of shura or consultation, as the way for the community to choose leaders. Designating one's successor was the sign of kingship, or mulk, which the independence-minded tribesmen disliked. Whatever the truth of the matter, Ali gave his formal bay'ah, or submission, to Abu Bakr and to Abu Bakr's two successors. (The Sunni depict this bay'ah as enthusiastic, and Ali as a supporter of Abu Bakr and Umar; the Shi'a argue that Ali's support was only pro forma, and that he effectively withdrew from public life in protest). The Sunni/Shi'a schism did not erupt into open warfare until much later. Many volumes have been written on the affair of the succession.


Iran has said that on August 22 it will respond to an offer of incentives

One way to respond to the United Nations and the critics of the Iranian nuclear program would be to test a device. Or use one.

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad is said to be a believer that the end of the world is coming soon and that the Hidden Imam will reveal himself.
The Hidden Imam, however, will eventually leave his Greater Occultation and appear (zuhur ) to the world of humanity. This return is the most significant event in the future for the Shi'ite faithful and has thunderous eschatological consequences. This return will occur shortly before the Final Judgment and the end of history. Imam Mahdi will return at the head of the forces of righteousness and do battle with the forces of evil in one, final, apocalyptic battle.


It is believed that Ahmadi-Nejad is, in particular, a member of a sect of Shi'a that believes that they can hasten the return of the Hidden Imam.

Given the date, the Saudis are certainly a target. As the Sunni superpower, and Gulf rival, their destruction would be a great victory for the Shi'a, who have very little in the way of victories to celebrate. Their holidays generally commemorate losses and martyrdoms. The House of Saud has funded the spread of Sunni Islam worldwide and has funded those who have committed acts of violence against the Shi'a.

However, I cannot rule out an action against the United States or Israel. The United States has a great many facilities in the region within reach of Iran's military. An attack against the United States would certainly generate the turmoil that Ahmadi-Nejad needs to hasten the return.

Israel may a target, as well. The recent war in Lebanon can be seen by the Iranians as weakening the Israelis and making them vulnerable.

The Iranians are going to respond to the offers and demands concerning their nuclear program on August 22. They are not going to give up their program. They are not going to submit to international controls of any sort. Their response could be merely another delaying tactic.

Or, their response could be the detonation of a nuclear device.
Posted by:Thavigum Snumble3800

#2  I bet on Nork. Despite their best efforts, I agree that Iran probably doesn't have a nuke of their own manufacture yet.

Kimmie, however, is getting old and has never had his "big event", though he has tried a bunch of times. Things like digging enormous tunnels under the DMZ, and hair-brained schemes like that.

Already, his sucessors are struggling for who gets the job next, and Kimmie figures he isn't going to last much longer.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2006-08-18 19:43  

#1  North Korea or Iran? Which will be the test site?
Posted by: Thesh Anginter7678   2006-08-18 19:27  

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