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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| The Siniora Syndrome |
| 2006-08-03 |
| By Jed Babbin In 1973, when a bank robbery turned into a six-day siege, several employees of the Kreditbanken in Stockholm, Sweden were held hostage under threat of death. At some point in those six long days, the psychological pressure so badly twisted some of the hostages' minds that they believed the robbers were protecting them from the police. This emotional pathology became known as the Stockholm Syndrome. Nations have psyches too. And when nations are held captive they can also fall prey to that same emotional disorder. At the national level it deserves another name. Because today's most prominent hostage nation is Lebanon, the emotional disorder should be called the Siniora Syndrome. Lebanon was, for decades, a model for Middle Eastern democracy. Its collapse into the captivity of Syria, Iran and their terrorist surrogate Hizballah is the operational template being followed by opponents of democracy in Iraq. Under Lebanon's "National Pact" of 1943, ethnic groups - Sunni, Druze, Shia, Christian - agreed that they would form a "confessional" democracy, representation in the national congress for each ethnicity in proportion to its numerical strength. But the most important part of the pact was agreement that no group would ally itself with any group or force outside of Lebanon: "no victors and no vanquished" was the principle uniting the Lebanese. The National Pact began to fall apart in 1958 when Lebanese Arabs responded to calls for Arabic nationalism. The Pact was finally destroyed in the 1975 civil war when Sunni and Druze Lebanese allied themselves with Syria and Arafat's Palestinians. And so began thirty years of domination by Syria which included the creation and rise of Hizballah, which has controlled southern Lebanon since Israel withdrew in 2000. All of this supposedly ended in the 2005 "Cedar Revolution" in Lebanon. Withdrawal of Syrian forces, the election of a "democratic" government and the continued presence of UN "peacekeepers" on the Israel-Lebanon border were supposed to herald the emergence of Lebanon as a lasting democracy. But instead, the Syrians - determined that their influence would not be substantively reduced -- left solid political, intelligence and terrorist operations to keep Lebanon under control. Syria assassinated former Lebanese PM Hariri for trying to rid Lebanon of Syrian domination. Worse still, Hizballah has become a major part of the elected Lebanese government. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government isn't reluctantly accepting Hizballah. They are praising Hizballah's political influence and "accomplishments." Hizballah and the Lebanese people are fulfilling each others' expectations. We are bombarded daily with proofs that Lebanon - its government and its citizens - have all fallen prey to the Siniora Syndrome. All of Lebanon's top political leaders, from President Lahoud to Prime Minister Siniora to their UN envoy, all echo the Hizballah party line. Siniora parrots Hizballah's demands for Israeli withdrawal and a cease-fire that would allow Hizballah to remain in de facto control of his nation. Siniora - who at times seems to be speaking for Hizballah, not for his people -- proclaims Hizballah as Lebanon's savior from Israel. Once again the hostages are acclaiming the bank robbers for protecting them from the cops. Lebanese President Lahoud, in a Der Spiegel interview, said "Hizballah enjoys utmost prestige in Lebanon, because it freed our country. All over the Arab world you hear: Hizballah maintains Arab honor, and even though it (Hizballah) is very small, it stands up to Israel. And of course [Hizballah chieftain] Nasrallah has my respect." Were he to say opposite, Lahoud knows his fate would be the same as Hariri's. Under UN Security Council Resolution 1559, the Lebanese government is supposed to be disarming Hizballah. But that is not only beyond Lahoud's power: it is not even his wish. Lahoud's special envoy to the UN, Nahoud Mahmoud, told Tim Russert that Hizballah, "...are part of the Lebanese society and they have their...legitimacy through...fighting, the...occupation [by] Israel..." When asked if the Lebanese Army is too weak to disband Hizballah, Mahmoud said, "It's not on our political agenda to disband them militarily." This is a man representing a government with which he shares a psychological pathology: he counts himself on the side of those who hold him, his people and his government hostage. For the Stockholm hostages - and those such as Symbionese Liberation Army hostage-cum-member Patty Hearst - it required years of psychoanalysis to cure them of their emotional disorder. For Lebanon, there is neither the time nor the means for slow cures. As the Israelis expand their military incursion into Lebanon and push northward to the Litani River, the strategic stakes are very high. If they succeed, Iran's gambit to take the pressure off their nuclear weapons program will have failed, Syria will be cowed and quiet for a time, and the many pundits who are already proclaiming Israel's defeat will have been proven wrong as they were in 1967 and 1973. The world's focus will, as it must be, be on the dangerous terrorists who comprise Iran's regime. But if the Israelis wish to crush Hizballah, they cannot do so conclusively in southern Lebanon. Hizballah will be reinforced, resupplied and rearmed by Syria and Iran in a matter of months and Israel will have to mount this sort of invasion again and again. No international force will accomplish Hizballah's destruction, especially one from the UN or NATO. Because the French are still French, neither the Russians nor the Chinese need bestir themselves to doom the operation. According to a Reuters report, during a visit to Beirut French foreign minister Douste-Blazy said, "It was clear that we could never accept a destabilization of Lebanon, which could lead to a destabilization of the region." He added, "In the region there is of course a country such as Iran -- a great country, a great people and a great civilization which is respected and which plays a stabilizing role in the region." Iran is, indeed, trying to establish a new stability in the Middle East. If Israel fails to force Hizballah out of Lebanon and free the Siniora government from captivity, then Iran will have succeeded. It will have established Lebanon as the first captured nation in its new caliphate. That would be a strategic defeat for Israel, and for us. To be even partially successful against Hizballah - to do enough to preclude Syria and Iran from re-establishing them quickly in Lebanon - the Israelis have to drive it out of the Lebanese government. To do that, they will need the loud and clear support of America and every other nation that understands the Siniora Syndrome. We, and the Israelis, must force the expulsion of Hizballah from Lebanon and its political life. No nation can pretend to be a democracy when the elected government is controlled by terrorists. Jed Babbin was a deputy undersecretary of defense in the George H.W. Bush administration. He is a contributing editor to The American Spectator. |
| Posted by:ryuge |
| #3 It wouldn't be a bad idea to have a few thousand US SOF or ex-SOF to form a retaliation wing to respond to muslim atrocities. Better yet, to push back islam from the borders. There could even be tax deductable charities to fund them. |
| Posted by: ed 2006-08-03 16:55 |
| #2 They should detach half the IDF and IAF from the Israeli Gov. and refer to it as "the military wing of B'nai Brith", then they , like Hizbollah will be invisible uncontrollable and beyond considering officially. |
| Posted by: J. D. Lux 2006-08-03 16:19 |
| #1 An interesting read. I think it helped me figure out a translation problem I was having, too. All this time, I thought "Arab honor" meant "honor", when it really means "Arab dominance." That's interesting, too, when you think about the instances in which "honor" is most often uttered. Oh, and Mr. Bolton, you might mention this at the next discussion to find out whether 1559 has been nullified: (Mahmood) "It's not on our political agenda to disband them militarily." |
| Posted by: Jules in the Hinterlands 2006-08-03 15:48 |