Hezbollah's capture of two Israeli soldiers is a trademark gambit of the group's secretary general Hasan Nasrallah, according to Middle East online observers. Nasrallah, who will be 46 years old on Friday,| Happy Birthday, Nasty! The IAF has a nice gift all picked out for you. They may even deliver it in person! "Candygram." |
"Nasrallah's gamble," as Yoav Appel of the Jerusalem Post called it, is that the violence will die down and Israel will enter in negotiations over a prisoner swap. The Shiite political party and militia says the two Israeli soldiers captured on Wednesday will only be released in exchange for prisoners held in Israeli jails. (Palestinians are seeking the same deal for the release of Cpl. Gilad Shalit, captured by Hamas militants last month). Whether or not Nasrallah secures an exchange, the attacks on Israel already "boost Hizbullah's popularity throughout the Middle East, especially at a time when the group is under regional and international pressure to disarm."
Nasrallah's standing among Arabs is high because he is seen as a leader who can negotiate with the Jewish state on an equal basis. In 2004, notes Islam Online, he arranged a massive prisoner exchange in which Israel released two high profile Lebanese leaders and 28 other Lebanese detained by Israel, as well as 400 Palestinian prisoners and the bodies of 59 Lebanese fighters. In return, Hezbollah handed over an Israeli businessman lured to Beirut and kidnapped, and caskets containing the bodies of three Israeli soldiers killed in Lebanon. "Nasrallah will try to be the one responsible for negotiations and will try to combine the two kidnappings into one event," Israeli rofessor Shaul Mishal told Ynet News. He will "leverage the whole process to improve his standing in the Lebanese political system. Now he seems like the mover and shaker of Tehran and Damascus against Israel, and as a main player regionally, not just against Israel but facing Hamas as well."