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Home Front: Politix
Poll favors Democrats in fall elections
2006-06-28
Americans are paying unusually close attention to the congressional elections in November, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and they are more inclined to deliver big gains to Democrats than in any year since Republicans swept to control of the House and Senate in 1994. The survey, taken Friday through Sunday, indicates that voters are more concerned about national issues than local ones — a situation that favors Democrats hoping to tap discontent over the Iraq war and gas prices — and prefer Democrats over Republicans on handling every major issue except terrorism.

President Bush looms as a significant drag: 39% of those surveyed say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush. Just 21% say they would be more likely. "At this point, it certainly looks like a significant tilt to the Democrats, but it's still quite early," says James Campbell, a political scientist at the University of Buffalo and author of The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections. Democrats including House leader Nancy Pelosi of California express optimism about winning the 15 seats needed to take control. They are hampered, though, by the limited number of competitive districts across the country.
Posted by:Fred

#18  I call this skew the "Loudmouth Minority Effect". Some effects are gratifying (ie: shows up after the ballots are counted!), and some are irritating (shows up in liberal speech when you know they're wrong but they're sure they're right!).
Posted by: grb   2006-06-28 13:37  

#17  Useful for donk spin and designed to be.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-06-28 11:59  

#16  Weekend poll = skews Dem.

Worthless, and designed to be.
Posted by: JSU   2006-06-28 11:57  

#15  right 6!! What's that saying.... spraying air freshner....

I think these polls work because the liberals are all a bunch of sheep who need someone to tell them how they think.
Posted by: 2b   2006-06-28 10:55  

#14  I favor the democrats to fall in the election too.
Posted by: wxjames   2006-06-28 10:51  

#13  39% of those surveyed say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush. Just 21% say they would be more likely. "

Worth reading closely, I think that sez than 61% don't care one way or the other or support B.
Posted by: 6   2006-06-28 10:49  

#12  "There's only one poll that matters."
Posted by: mojo   2006-06-28 10:16  

#11  I believe the polls had Kerry and Gore winning by a comfortable margin in 2000 and 2004.

Posted by: bigjim-ky   2006-06-28 10:08  

#10  Certainly "Generic" has never done anything to turn the electorate off.
Posted by: eLarson   2006-06-28 09:02  

#9  Don't forget, too, that "generic Democrat" versus "generic Republican" never tells you much of anything. Nobody ever votes for "generic." When you step up to the touch-screen machine, it's "incumbent Congresscritter" vesus "challenger," and your decision on that question depends largely on who those people are and what they said and whose push-polling phone call annoyed you the most.
Posted by: Mike   2006-06-28 07:08  

#8  Onthe poll itself:

Gallup = phone poll.

Respondnets will be more likely D than R - R tend ot have unlisted numbers, etc.

Friday through Sunday polling. On a weekend in the summer - R voters are more likely to be away formthe phone, NASCAR, fishing, etc. D (ubran) voters will be indoor near the phone withthe Air Conditioning on, watching the world cup.

On top of that, their sames are off - they far oversampled Dems (see above) and undersampled Repubs.

Etc.

Methodology makes them just as wrong now as they were in 2002 and 2004.

Rassmussen is more accurate - that would be one to watch on a state by state basis.

Zogby and USA/Gallup are heavily biased toward D - they had Bush losing Ohio, and Kerry winning the national popular vote by several percentage points the last national cycle. Its similarly bad that they tend to use push-poll type questions, not neutral ones.

Posted by: Oldspook   2006-06-28 04:31  

#7  Nancy, name the 15 seats you'll change.

And remember you have to hold all your current ones as well. And that includes that nutbag Murtha who will be facing a solid opponent against his moonbattery and senility.


Posted by: Oldspook   2006-06-28 04:26  

#6  This is the "generic" Democrat vs Republican poll.

But when you get it downto individual contgressional districts, its far different.

Those 10:1 Dem margins in heavily Dem areas get washed out in the rest of the US.

Thank goodness.



Posted by: Oldspook   2006-06-28 04:25  

#5  They are hampered, though, by the limited number of competitive districts across the country.

That sounds an awful lot like "We can't find anyone to vote for us!"
Posted by: grb   2006-06-28 04:13  

#4  LOL, Silentbrick & PBMcL!
Posted by: flyover   2006-06-28 04:06  

#3  I just took a poll, and 100% of the respondents (me) think that polls are a waste of time...
Posted by: PBMcL   2006-06-28 01:12  

#2  We need more and more polls telling us the Democrats are going to win. Maybe in 2-3 Centuries the Democrats will figure out that these fake polls they love to do only drive Republicans to the Polls. Of course, Hell will also freeze over as the Flying Pigs expel freon from their nether regions as well to cause Global Cooling.
Posted by: Silentbrick   2006-06-28 00:59  

#1  Polls have been claiming similar things for years and every year the Dems lose - what is clear is that even iff the GOP-Right loses a few seats, their agenda is still preferred over the Dems by the majority of the Amer mainstream. The Dems want easy street, i.e. to have the GOP resolve the Rogues for them while all they do is spend Amer dollars everywhere while simul eroding Amer geopol power and position unto anti-Amer OWG.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2006-06-28 00:45  

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