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Europe
Montenegro vote opens separatist Pandora's box
2006-05-24
Montenegro's independence could open a Pandora's box for other separatist movements in Europe and the former Soviet Union, with some already claiming the right to follow the same path.

Separatists in Spain's Basque and Catalan regions were among the first to welcome Montenegro's independence vote as a positive omen for their aspirations of loosening ties with Madrid. But Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos stressed the situations in his country and Montenegro were "politically, diplomatically, juridically" incomparable and that making such a comparison would represent a "great irresponsibility".
Correct: the Catalans have been demanding independence for over 300 years, not just 10.
His view was supported by European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who said any such comparisons would be "delirious".

After Montenegro the EU has to immediately tackle the issue of the United Nations-administered Serbian province of Kosovo, where ethnic Albanians are the majority. Kosovo Albanians hope to gain independence this year, a demand Belgrade fiercely opposes. Tim Judah, a Balkans specialist at the Centre for European Reform based in London, said regional stability depended far more on Kosovo -- "the final act in this 15-year drama" -- than on Montenegro. "Compared to Kosovo, Montenegro is easy," he said, stressing that "Kosovo is a much, much bigger problem".

"Although some refuse to establish a link, possible independence of Kosovo, which would be internationally recognised, would legitimise the ambitions of other separatists who never had their own state," a Western diplomat based in the Croatian capital Zagreb told Agence France-Presse, wishing to remain anonymous.
It would pretty much wipe out one essential tenet of the Peace of Westphalia: the creation of nation-states, as opposed to principalities and city-states. The European nation-states could well devolve into various parts, which will be more inclined -- for reasons of security and political skull-duggery -- to incorporate themselves into the modern version of the Holy Roman Empire: the EU Constitution.
Bosnian Serbs have already said Montenegro's independence was a good model to be followed by their entity of Republika Srpska, which, along with the Muslim-Croat Federation, has made up post-war Bosnia.

For those fighting for the independence of the Germanic Tyrol region of Italy, and its annexation to Austria, the outcome of Montenegro's referendum inspired dreams to organise a similar vote.
Why annex to Austria when you can have your own mini-state, be part of the EU, and not have to put up with any nonsense from some national capital far away?
Konstantin Kosachev, chairperson of the Russian Parliament's foreign-affairs committee, warned of setting a precedent over Kosovo. "This will create a precedent heavy with consequences for other regions," he said, citing in particular Turkish northern Cyprus and Spain's Basque separatists.

But even in the former Soviet Union, several regions are hoping to follow the lead of Montenegro. They were unilaterally proclaimed during the bloody conflicts that followed its 1991 collapse and supported by Moscow, but not recognised by the international community. Among them, the breakaway republics of Transdniestr in Moldova and Abkhazia in Georgia, were the first to say the vote serves as a model of "self-determination".
With Mother Russia providing security and 'direction', of course.
"One can only welcome such a civilised method for gaining self-determination," said the "president" of Abkhazia, Sergei Bagapch, quoted by Interfax.

The "foreign minister" of Transdniestr, Valeri Litskai, said the outcome of Sunday's referendum in the tiny Balkan republic was a day for celebration. "The chief diplomats of all the unrecognised republics of the former Soviet Union were satisfied" with the referendum result, he said after a meeting with representatives of regional minorities in Moscow
Posted by:Steve White

#1  I hope somebody is thinking carefully about how to make empire disassembly work relatively peacefully. We can all come up with a list of probable candidates: Sudan, the Chinese empire (sooner or later), Nigeria, Pakistan, maybe Iraq, etc. They may involve population transfers along the Greece/Turkey lines. Messy...
Posted by: James   2006-05-24 13:00  

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