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| Science & Technology |
| U.S. warships ply waters, China on horizon |
| 2006-05-05 |
| It has been a rough few days. Steaming up the eastern coast of Japan, Cmdr. Joseph Deleon's guided missile frigate has been tossed around on heavy seas and the younger sailors, back from five months ashore, are feeling seasick. Grounded by high winds, the helicopter pilots are watching movies in the ward room. The primary mission is hunting submarines. But the Gary, like the U.S. Seventh Fleet to which it belongs, is also a showcase of American power in a region fraught with crises -- North Korea, Taiwan, terrorism and piracy. It is also a region whose security profile is being changed by the rise of China and a major realignment of U.S. forces, and by the prospect of Japan breaking out of its 60-year pacifist mind-set and playing a greater defense role. The fleet's 40-50 ships, 120 aircraft and roughly 20,000 sailors and Marines have an area of operations that spans the Pacific and Indian oceans, 52 million square miles (135 million square kilometers) from the international dateline to the east coast of Africa. It's a region that accounts for more than US$220 billion (euro174 billion) in trade with the United States, 98 percent of which moves by sea. The consequences of a war in these waters are obvious -- global economic meltdown. With major outposts in Japan, South Korea, Guam and the Diego Garcias in the Indian Ocean, the fleet has a reach and deterrent force that other nations can only envy. As the Gary makes its way through the Tsugaru Straits between Japan's main island and Hokkaido on its way to exercises with the South Koreans, the flagship of the fleet, the USS Blue Ridge, is 3,000 miles (4,830 kilometers) away making port calls in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The centerpiece of it all, the USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier, is at the fleet's home port in Yokosuka, just south of Tokyo, undergoing repairs. But in the Pacific, calm waters can turn rough very fast. Just a few days' journey away from the Gary is North Korea, openly hostile, claiming nuclear might and technically still at war with South Korea. Then there's Taiwan, a U.S. ally which China claims as a renegade province, to be recovered by force if necessary. To the south, the Malacca Straits, one of the world's most important trade routes, are infested with pirates. Terrorism is rife throughout much of southeast Asia; territorial disputes begin up around the Siberian coast and work their way down to well below the equator. Taking a short break in his quarters just below the bridge on the Gary, Deleon refuses to single out any specific hotspot as a primary concern. "We have countries that we are monitoring, that we are aware of," he said. The rest, he suggests, is classified. Some facts speak for themselves, however. With the decline of the once mighty Soviet navy, most of the subs the fleet is tracking are now Chinese. With its physical size, 1.3 billion people and swelling economy, China casts a lengthening shadow as it establishes itself yet again as a power to be reckoned with. But where is it going? Some experts believe that while the Soviet Union was primarily a military rival and Japan an economic one, China could emerge as the first country with the potential to challenge the United States on both fronts. Its economic growth, fanned by robust exports and investment, is expected to be 8.9 percent in 2006. China is now the world's second largest consumer and third-largest importer of oil. And this year, its foreign currency reserves reached US$853.7 billion (euro675.2 billion), topping Japan's to become the world's largest. Clyde Prestowitz, a former U.S. trade negotiator, notes that China and India have a combined 230 million people considered "highly skilled" -- not far off the entire population of the United States. "It's true these are poor countries on average, but these are big populations," he said during a recent visit to Tokyo. "We've been talking about globalization for a long time, except half of the population has been out. Now they're in." Much of Asia already depends on the Chinese economy to fire growth, and China is widely credited by economists with pulling the region out of the financial crisis of the 1990s. So, according to Prestowitz, the rise of China isn't what the developed countries should fear. "What we should fear is its failure," he said. But as China's economy has grown, so has its military. In March last year, Beijing announced it was increasing its defense budget 12.5 percent, to about US$29.9 billion (euro23.7 billion), twice as much as in 2000. That figure is generally considered an underestimate. It excludes key areas, such as foreign weapons procurement and support for its nuclear stockpile. The actual budget could be two to three times higher. "China will not threaten anyone," its latest national defense policy statement said. "China needs a peaceful international environment to develop itself ... China will never pursue expansion and hegemony." The Pentagon sees it differently. "China does not now face a direct threat from another nation," it said in a report last July. "Yet, it continues to invest heavily in its military, particularly in programs designed to improve power projection. ... In the future, China's leaders may be tempted to resort to force or coercion more quickly to press diplomatic advantage, advance security interests or resolve disputes." |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #1 Article: So, according to Prestowitz, the rise of China isn't what the developed countries should fear. "What we should fear is its failure," he said. Prestowitz is a nutjob. He portrayed Japan as this big threat during its boom years back in the 1980's, even though it was an American ally, and now he's downplaying the Chinese threat despite the fact that China has fought significant border wars with India, Russia and Vietnam, not to mention annexed Tibet. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2006-05-05 23:29 |