| Submit your comments on this article |
| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| USN would keelhaul Iranian "Navy" |
| 2006-05-01 |
| From Geostrategy Direct and I do not have the URL Think tank: U.S. could easily stop Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz WASHINGTON — Iran lacks the capability to block the world's leading shipping route for crude oil exports, according to a new report by a Washington think tank. The Center for Strategic and International Studies said the Iranian navy, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has failed to procure platforms or weapons required to block the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway for 60 percent of the world's oil trade. In a report, the Washington-based center said the United States could block any Iranian attempt to attack Gulf shipping, particularly from the sea. "Iran could not close the Strait of Hormuz, or halt tanker traffic, and its submarines and much of its IRGC forces would probably be destroyed in a matter of days if they become operational," the report said. The assertion undermined an Iranian warning to threaten the global oil trade if attacked by the United States. The warning was issued during the Holy Prophet exercise in the Gulf, which took place from March 31 to April 6. Authored by Anthony Cordesman and Khalid Al-Rodhan, the report said Iran could seek to disrupt Gulf oil traffic from land-based facilities. The report, "Iranian Nuclear Weapons? The Options if Diplomacy Fails," envisioned Iranian missile strikes on oil facilities in Iraq and the southern Gulf region in response to a U.S. air strike. "Even sporadic random strikes would create a high risk premium and potential panic in oil markets," the report said. Still, the report said, the Iranian navy remains highly vulnerable and would be quickly overwhelmed by a U.S. attack. The navy has deployed such assets as the Raad anti-ship missile, with a range of up to 100 kilometers and deployed near the Strait of Hormuz. The navy also operates three "relatively effective" Kilo-class submarines procured from Russia, the report said. The underwater platforms have been equipped with mines as well as long-range wire-guided torpedoes. The report said the IRGC naval branch operates 10 Hudong missile patrol boats with sea-skimming anti-ship missiles. The force also deploys C-14 high-speed catamarans and 40 Bohammar Marine patrol boats. "Many are so small they are difficult to detect with ship-borne radars," the report said. "They can conduct suicide attacks, or release floating mines covertly in shipping lanes or near key facilities." The report also dismissed the effectiveness of Iran's air defense umbrella. Cordesman and Al Rodhan said Iran's arsenal of aging Western- or Russian-origin surface-to-air missile batteries could be quickly neutralized by U.S. countermeasures. "All of its major systems are based on technology that is now more than 35 years old, and all are vulnerable to U.S. use of active and passive countermeasures," the report said. "Iran's air defense forces are too widely spaced to provide more than limited air defense for key bases and facilities, and many lack the missile launcher strength to be fully effective." |
| Posted by:Brett |
| #8 ... would probably be destroyed in a matter of days ... I was thinking more like "in a matter of minutes" (first 80%) or maybe "in a matter of hours" (next 80%). If the final 4% worth of targets didn't scuttle themselves by the 24 hour mark, they'd be "sleeping with the fishes" as well. Looking back at our naval engagements with Iran back in the '80's - when we weren't even half trying - it is easy to image the "shooting fish in a barrel" if we ever let loose with a concerted effort. |
| Posted by: Lone Ranger 2006-05-01 21:54 |
| #7 Iff history is any measure, the USA = USDOD will not hesitate to take out by [limited]pre-emption any missle or air defense(s), etal. that is deemed to place world transhipments in the Persian Gulf at even light risk - all thats needed is the word for attack from Dubya and Rummy. Keep in mind that the Mullahs and Madmoud want de facto invasion by US/US-led Allied ground forces, as any such direct invasion will the PC alibi/diversion to launch terror strikes against America ala 9-11, strikes against domestic Amer targets which in reality are likely disguised decapitation strikes meant to assure pro-isolationist, pro-Anti-Sovereignty, pro-OWG, "anti-USA = Saving the USA from Itself" Commie Clinton- and DemoLeft ascendancy to the White House and Congress, but espec to the White House. ONCE THE SOCIALISTS-COMMUNISTS ARE IN POWER THE ONLY WAY TO SAVE FREE AMERICA IS VV CIVIL WAR AND ARMED REVOLUTION, BECUZ THE FORMER ARE NOT GOING TO GIVE AMERICA BACK WITHOUT WAR. The Lefties are for everyone and no one except themselves, and take cradit for everything and nothing, e.g helping you = killing you. They have no qualms iff defective Fascist=Rightist-led Clintonian SOCIALIST America wages war for 9-11 as long as an ANTI-SOVEREIGN COMMUNIST TOTALITARIAN SOCIALIST AMERIKA UNDER OWG AND SWO IS THE FINAL OUTCOME. IRAN = NORTH KOREA = TAIWAN, ETAL. > JUST BLOODY DIVERSIONS FROM THE REAL BATTLEFIELD THAT IS IN THE HALLS OF CONGRESS AND THE VOTING BOOTHS OF CLINTONISM-PREMISED PRE-/PSEUDO-COMMUNIST AMERIKA. THe Chicoms cannot be held responsible for desiring the [pre-planned]extermination of 200Milyuhn or more defective Rightist Socialist Amerikans becuz under Saint Bill's -ism Americans wish to be destroyed anyway, to be governed by anyone and everyone except an American let alone a Rightist Conservative SOCIALIST Amerikan. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2006-05-01 20:37 |
| #6 If if the Iranians were as competent as the USN, I would be really, really concerned. Happily, that is not the case. They have old or outmoded equipment (F4/F5s or any sov/chicom tech products (i.e. more complex that a RPD)) and a whole lotta Muzzie Juche equivalent. In their minds, allen will make it happen as it is pre-ordained. Pfeh. I am sure we have been watching every radar, silkworm, missle, dock, transmission and communication and CP there. Listening. Learning. I suspect as in Iraq, many Iranian officers will get "informative" cell phone calls as 'the Balloon is going up', providing useful advice on how to survive. |
| Posted by: Brett 2006-05-01 19:43 |
| #5 Pay for it with oil from the Iranian oil fields. Yup. The cost of any hostilities caused by Iran (already a given) shall be underwritten by war reparations paid in Iranian oil. Attempts to contest such actions with military force will merely cause daily penalties assessed at, oh ... let's say, 100% of the original sum. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-05-01 19:33 |
| #4 This article makes me happy. |
| Posted by: bgrebel 2006-05-01 19:23 |
| #3 Pay for it with oil from the Iranian oil fields. |
| Posted by: Laurence of the Rats 2006-05-01 18:40 |
| #2 It's even simpler than mines, for which the US can adequately deal. Fear. There is not a single shipping company whose insurance underwriters will allow in a "war zone". This means that not only would the US have to underwrite any war consequences, but pay for replacement ships, *and* pay combat pay to the ships crews. And even that is problematic. The shipping companies might just say no. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2006-05-01 18:11 |
| #1 All the Iranians have to do is fill a chokepoint with mines. They also just got a great upgrade installed from the Russians. |
| Posted by: gromky 2006-05-01 17:51 |