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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Iran May Climb Down Over N-Issue Sooner Than West Expects |
| 2006-04-15 |
| An interesting new bed-time story. Amir Taheri Was Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahamdinejad inspired by a Tehrani folk tale to try and lead the Islamic republic out of what looks like the most serious foreign policy crisis in its history? The question arose the other day as Iranians watched the firebrand president announce Iran’s “full entry into the nuclear club.” The announcement was carefully choreographed for maximum effect. It took place in Mash’had, Iran’s second largest city and the site of the nation’s holiest Shiite shrine. The announcement was also made on the eve of the arrival in Tehran of a negotiating team headed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director Muhammad El-Baradei. Ahmadinejad, with a giant Iranian flag in the background, also described the announcement as a “special present” on the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him). The show was punctuated by songs and dances performed by men and women dressed in folkloric gears, thus adding to the North Korean style of the exercise. Kimmy contracting on party-planng. I thought there was a NORK flare to the dancing and waving uranium in vials. All in all it was a clever mixture of Islam, nationalism, science, political braggadocio, and diplomatic flexibility. The announcement that Iran now masters the full nuclear fuel cycle and that it has enriched uranium to a minimum acceptable level in laboratory conditions, may be no big deal to better-informed citizens. In fact, Iran had the scientific and technological capacity to do so in 1977. It lost that capacity when the Ayatollah Khomeini, who seized power in 1979, shut the nuclear program as “satanic”, had some scientists executed, and forced others into exile. Spoil sports may even claim that the knowledge needed to do what Iran claims to have done is available on the Internet, and that, provided the money is there, even private citizens could process uranium to such low levels of enrichment. But the spoilsports would be wrong. The issue here is not uranium enrichment but the finding of a way for the Islamic republic to walk out of a high-risk confrontation with the United Nations without losing face. On that score, Ahmadinejad should get high marks. But he may owe all that to the Tehrani folk tale we mentioned above. That tale is woven around its hero Ali Golabi (Pear-shaped Ali) who is a small chap with big ambitions. The bigger chaps in the neighborhood dismiss him as a midget, bully him whenever they can, and never offer him a seat at the table in the teahouse that is their haunt. So what does Ali Golabi do? He goes around waving a big knife, making a big noise, breaking a window here and there, and, occasionally, even strangling a street cat to show his strength. His agitations annoy the big chaps who want to sip their tea, puff their hookahs and play a game of backgammon in peace. Nevertheless, Ali knows where and when to stop. As soon as the big chaps come out of the teahouse to confront him, he declares that he has already done whatever he had wanted to do and is now ready not to do it again. This helps ease the tension and gets Ali off the hook — until the next showdown. So, if our analysis is right, the next step for the Islamic republic would be to announce that, having done what it wanted to do, it has now decided to stop doing it for a while as a gesture of goodwill. Tehran has less than two weeks to do that before the April 28 deadline set by the United Nations Security Council. I may be wrong but I think that the Ahmadinejad announcement provides the first opportunity to stop the crisis from spiraling out of control. The Iranian climb-down, if it has not already happened by the time this column is published, is sure to come soon. The reason is that Ahmadinejad has achieved his tactical goals and has no reason to provoke a confrontation at this point. His first goal was to discredit his two predecessors, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Muhammad Khatami, by portraying them as weaklings who had given in to pressure and agreed to stop uranium enrichment in the first place. Ahamdinejad has succeeded in developing a macho image, built around the myth of his “austerity and purity”. His claim is that Rafsanjani was vulnerable to pressure by foreign powers because of his business interests, while Khatami craved attention from Western leaders and media. Ahmadinejad, however, is proud of being poor, and demands attention from no one but the “Hidden Imam.” The freak is obsessed with bed-time stories. His second goal was to appear to be acting from a position of strength, and, once again, he has succeeded. The Mash’had announcement came as the denouement of a series of dramatic events. These started in February with the biggest ever show of military power that Tehran has seen. Then followed the military maneuvers conducted in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. Next came the testing of what was claimed to be “the world’s fastest underground anti-submarine missile”. In between something called “the flying boat” was thrown in and presented as “a miracle in military technology.” Ahmadinejad also highlighted his radical credentials by promising to “wipe Israel off the map.” It would be hard for anyone to accuse him either of weakness or a lack of revolutionary zeal. Having developed its image as a major military power that cannot be bullied by anyone, the Islamic republic is now in a position to show “magnanimity” in the service of peace and understanding. This would not be the first time that Pear-shaped Ali has helped get the Islamic republic off the hook. In August 1988 the Islamic Republic launched its biggest-ever military operation in the eight-year-long war against Iraq as a prelude to announcing that it has accepted a UN-brokered cease-fire that it had rejected for years. Thus what was a humiliating retreat was presented as a great triumph for “Islam and the Revolution.” If the US and its European Union allies play the roles assigned to them in the Ahamdinejad script, the current crisis is likely to be defused soon. We have quite a different story in mind, Mahmoud. Tehran will announce a new moratorium on uranium enrichment, probably for period of two years that could later be extended to 10 years. It would also agree to submit the additional protocols of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) to the Islamic Majlis for approval at an unspecified date, and invite the IAEA to resume inspections in Iran. Since enriching uranium is not illegal under the NPT, there is nothing that the US and its allies could do in response to what Pear-shaped Ali says he has already done but won’t do again. But while all this might provide yet another respite, the crisis generated by Iran’s refusal to accept the new emerging status quo in the Middle East will not be dissipated. The outside world will never be sure that the Islamic republic is not developing a nuclear bomb. Nor can anyone be sure that the Islamic republic, casting itself in the role of the leader of a new “Islamic superpower” in a global “Clash of Civilizations” will always retain Pear-shaped Ali’s proverbial prudence. And no-one but Russia and China will believe in this pear-shaped psychotic. |
| Posted by:Thinemp Whimble2412 |
| #36 Happy Easter :-) |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-04-15 23:42 |
| #35 2b, I like the Brits. Used to travel there once or twice a year. But there is a segment that are so deluded by Marxism that they will destroy British society and hand it over to the P.S. Happy Easter All. |
| Posted by: ed 2006-04-15 23:35 |
| #34 ok... I feel bad now. Most British people I have met are very polite - it's doesn't take many to make you feel very uncomfortable. I still think Ed's comment is spot on, though. |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-04-15 23:25 |
| #33 *snicker* I guess the British gentleman is a disappearing species as well. Good thing it migrated west back in the 17th Century so that the species lives on. |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-04-15 23:15 |
| #32 How nice. Taking your little frustrations of powerlessness out on lone defenseless women. Notice the article identified none of you harassing American men. You pussies. Congrats, you British leftists pansies. By taking it out on women, you are halfway to becoming muslims. Act upon your pedohillic tendenies, and you will be full fledged flaming Mohammedans. Get a head start and memorize the Koran now. A mullah job, on the outside chance you may actually gave a gonad, may even be waiting for you. |
| Posted by: ed 2006-04-15 22:57 |
| #31 She would bug the crap out of me if she pranced around the bus like that. Oh admit it, you just wanna get in her pants. |
| Posted by: Rich Saudi 2006-04-15 22:25 |
| #30 It's always better to be underestimated. true, very true. You have succeeded!! Well done. |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-04-15 22:04 |
| #29 It's always better to be underestimated. IMHO. Then you have an advantage. Maybe that bird in the story is just very annoying. She would bug the crap out of me if she pranced around the bus like that. |
| Posted by: intelligent one 2006-04-15 21:53 |
| #28 I saw that news article too Sad but true. I dont have any probs with you folk stateside but it looks like some folks do... I wonder what the racial demographics are, she doesn't say.... |
| Posted by: Bravo7 2006-04-15 21:49 |
| #27 mommy and daddy call him that? |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-04-15 21:39 |
| #26 I have to wonder at the mindset that would choose the moniker "intelligent one". Obviously, anyone who sees that immediately thinks you are not intelligent. Unless you are a total dipshit, you would realize that. So it must be snark. But the moniker doesn't fit your snark. I suppose you could be that you are so flaming arrogant that you make Aris look modest - but - then even still - the moniker just causes one to think you are not an intelligent one. So, I'm curious, why did you pick that? |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-04-15 21:29 |
| #25 Geez, I-one, as an Ameican in London I get treated royally, simply because we stupid colonials tip at the bar. Why don't you throw down a few alms for your loyal barmen (and bar women), wanker? |
| Posted by: Capsu 78 2006-04-15 21:22 |
| #24 that's why we're counting on you, Raphael :-) |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-04-15 20:57 |
| #23 They are all around you. And to the north of you! ;-) |
| Posted by: rafael 2006-04-15 20:49 |
| #22 Been riding the Underground lately? Must be thrilling to place your life into another's hands just for the priveledge of going to work and paying taxes so they can collect the dole and plot your death. Yes stud, you are kicking the muzzie asses. We just know you are on the job, cause the native's No GO areas are expanding rapidly. Go out and kick some more ass. After all, Elton, Saturday night's the night for fightin'. Just follow the sounds of the muzzein calls. They are all around you. |
| Posted by: ed 2006-04-15 20:38 |
| #21 Fake but accurate? |
| Posted by: rafael 2006-04-15 20:30 |
| #20 Oh that's not nice! accurate, tho. |
| Posted by: anon 2006-04-15 20:18 |
| #19 You mean, like guarding your northern shore against incursions? It's a start. How many Chinese have landed there lately? Less than the number of Americans. Got a real solution yet? yes, it's called NATO. But seriously, if it wasn't for those nasty fishermen clubbing them to death, we'd have a whole division of SEALs. Get it? LOL, seals. Or is it just going to be one single bureaucrat issuing nasty letters to every warship sailing through the Northwest Passage? That's until we really get pissed off. After that, we call you. Ever get your helicopters fixed? No. We're getting new ones. (Thanks Mr. Harper!) How about your submarines? Ooooo. Don't know about those. But I'd rather put the money into something that goes a little faster to scare off those Spanish fishing vessels on the Grand Banks stealing our fish! Dammit. Or did y'all put the money toward the dole for your 'international guests' in Toronto? We treat all our guests with courtesy, including Americans. We don't put them on the dole though. That's not nice. How's that little problem with the Danes working out? Plan B says we re-take Hans Island sometime around the Spring thaw. You've got good troops. But far too few and far better than the rest of you smug, magnificently stupid, buggers deserve. Oh that's not nice! Do us a favor - send a few more real comedians down here. Okay sure. But why would you want more Democrats? We, at least, can pay them real money. Have you checked the exchange rate lately? |
| Posted by: rafael 2006-04-15 20:16 |
| #18 Make far too many assumptions too... Fatal flaw that, get your head shot right off if you aint careful. Gee, you guys are hot on the old reverse DNS etc. Just as well I am way hotter with my firewalss and virtual connections eh. FYI I am in the UK, pay my taxes there and everything... I do laugh a little at Canada's military exploits in Khandahar. Caused more deaths/injuries through bad driving than anything else. But not to worry. I know they are kicking bad guys too. Read a story that Americans travelling abroad have to pretend they are Canadian to stop copping grief from the locals in the UK, or wherever else. Amazing, who would want to give Americans abroad grief? No, the Brits are the guys kicking lumps out the locals in Basra, eh. Varmints. Eh! |
| Posted by: intelligent one 2006-04-15 20:12 |
| #17 I prefer my taxes doing something constructive You mean, like guarding your northern shore against incursions? How many Chinese have landed there lately? Got a real solution yet? Or is it just going to be one single bureaucrat issuing nasty letters to every warship sailing through the Northwest Passage? Ever get your helicopters fixed? How about your submarines? Or did y'all put the money toward the dole for your 'international guests' in Toronto? How's that little problem with the Danes working out? You've got good troops. But far too few and far better than the rest of you smug, magnificently stupid, buggers deserve. Do us a favor - send a few more real comedians down here. We saber-wielding monkeys would appreciate a higher level of comedy than your drivel. We, at least, can pay them real money. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2006-04-15 19:35 |
| #16 Nevertheless, Ali knows where and when to stop. As soon as the big chaps come out of the teahouse to confront him, he declares that he has already done whatever he had wanted to do and is now ready not to do it again. This helps ease the tension and gets Ali off the hook — until the next showdown. I know this story. What happens is the big guys don't believe Ali and beat the shit out of him. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2006-04-15 19:33 |
| #15 The IAEA can go anywhere and look at anything and report on it in Russia or the US of A. Actually... no. The 5 NWS under the NPT together have less than 5 reactors under IAEA safeguards. IAEA activities are very restricted in a NWS. That is a priviledge of being a NWS. After all, what would inspectors be checking? The US and Russia build nuclear weapons. There is nothing for the IAEA to verify. Now Iran as a NNWS, and a signatory to the Additional Protocol, is obliged to let the IAEA perform intrusive inspections to ensure that no weapons activity takes place. |
| Posted by: john 2006-04-15 19:16 |
| #14 yep, agree with you SPOD. Westerners have been lulled into a false sense of security that they can talk or bribe their way out of it in the end. Easterners have lulled themselves into a false sense of security that we won't fight back. Unless Iran overthrows their madman - this one is gong to be the real thing. |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-04-15 18:36 |
| #13 "intelligent one" this is is not Rugby, Soccer or Jr Leauge Hockey. We are not going to "kick their asses." We are going to kill them if it is required. It is not a sport or game. Iran is not North Korea. It has been engaged in a self declared war against the "great satan" for 20+ years. The US of A has practiced self restraint beyond what is required under internation law in responning to Iran's provocations and acts of war against our country. The rattling of sabers is all coming out of Iran. All that has been said by our government is that Iran will not be allowed to posses weapons based on nuclear reactions, fission or fusion. This is the same thing all other sane governments have declared. No one has said they can not have nuclear power. We requested total transparency as the US of A and Russia have in their nuclear programs under the NNPT. The IAEA can go anywhere and look at anything and report on it in Russia or the US of A. Iran is a signatory of the NNPT as well. Iran is not living up to it's commitments under the NNPT. It is doing dangerous things and making regrettable statements about other nations which make Iran's intentions regarding the use of nuclear technology suspect. No one in our government has said we are going to engage Iran on a military basis. All sane nations are currently seeking a diplomatic resolution. These nations hope to get Iran to comply with it's NNPT obligations. If they do not get back into compliance there will be trouble. That trouble will likely entail death and destruction in Iran. It's not "sabe rattling" it's a statement of fact. The only rattling sounds you hear are comming out of the leadership of Iran. The ball is in Iran's side of the court not on the side of the US of A. |
| Posted by: SPoD 2006-04-15 18:27 |
| #12 Canada did help evacuate potential hostages...but that was before subservient one was even born, I'll bet |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-04-15 18:09 |
| #11 Well considering that "intelligent one" (soi disant) is posting from CANADA, I think his taxes are safe from exploitation by the nasty US military. |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-04-15 16:54 |
| #10 LOL! |
| Posted by: Snarky One 2006-04-15 16:32 |
| #9 "Iran must pay for it 20+ year war of pin pricks" Lol... You go and kick their ass then. I prefer my taxes doing something constructive. You lot are a bunch of sabre rattling monkeys. |
| Posted by: intelligent one 2006-04-15 16:30 |
| #8 This is just Amir Taheri spinning to keep anything from being done about Iran's nukes. |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2006-04-15 15:52 |
| #7 their fairy tales lack any sense of reason, like their current animated cartoons (ala : Al Jareeza) they just dont understand that they are not evolved as much as the rest of the Free world, they are like monkeys forever stuck in their simean bodies desperately telling everyone their human. |
| Posted by: bk 2006-04-15 14:34 |
| #6 Strange thinking.. Well strange to me. I don't buy it. Iran must pay for it 20+ year war of pin pricks against the nation of the United States of America and the resulting deaths of it's citizens. The clock has been ticking for some time now. The current Iranian "princes" are off their rockers. These "princes" are the force that has been driving and carrying this low intenisty asymmetric warfare aginst my Nation the US of A. It's coming to be the time for "the pay back" and all which that may entail. This "myth" has no meaning to me. It's just more "Iranian" falsity and misdirection. |
| Posted by: SPoD 2006-04-15 12:53 |
| #5 This fairy tale is more appropriate! |
| Posted by: 3dc 2006-04-15 12:23 |
| #4 I think Jupiter And The Bee is more apt: Long ago there was an industrious bee who had stored her combs with a bountiful harvest. One day, she decided to fly up to heaven and present an offering of honey to Jupiter. The god was so delighted with the bee's gift that he promised her she should have whatever her heart desired. "Oh great Jupiter, my creator and master, I beg of thee, give thy servant a sting so that when anyone approches my hive to take the honey, I may kill him on the spot." Jupiter was surprised to hear such a bloodthirsty request from such a humble creature. Becoming angry, he said: "your prayer shall not be granted in exactly the way you wish. But the sting you ask for you shall have. When anyone comes to take away your honey and you attack him, the wound shall be fatal. But it shall be fatal to you, for your life shall go with your sting." |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-04-15 11:47 |
| #3 Think this version of the story may have a different ending. After all, Little Red Riding Hood didn't have the US Marines on call. Ahamdinejad must worry every time a B-2 lifts off from Whiteman AFB. |
| Posted by: RWV 2006-04-15 11:39 |
| #2 This guy is telling Little Red Riding Hood but thinks Iran is the big bad wolf and we are Little Red Riding Hood. Little Red Riding Hood took off her clothes and got into bed. She was greatly amazed to see how her grandmother looked in her nightclothes, and said to her, "Grandmother, what big arms you have!" "All the better to hug you with, my dear." "Grandmother, what big legs you have!" "All the better to run with, my child." "Grandmother, what big ears you have!" "All the better to hear with, my child." "Grandmother, what big eyes you have!" "All the better to see with, my child." "Grandmother, what big teeth you have got!" "All the better to eat you up with." And, saying these words, this wicked wolf fell upon Little Red Riding Hood, and ate her all up. |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-04-15 11:13 |
| #1 OTOH, Mahmoud's plan could be to trade his compliance for a demand that Israel submit to a revelation of their nuclear abilitlites and weaponry - documented and inspsected. China and Russia would certainly get behind that. An islamic diplo coup for Mahmoud and an attack opportunity on Israel. |
| Posted by: Thinemp Whimble2412 2006-04-15 10:40 |