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| Peters: Need to focus on Indian Ocean Theater |
| 2006-04-06 |
| The Cold War is over, and the 20th century is over. Our willingness to extend the presence of substantial U.S. forces in northern Europe while slighting the Greater Indian Ocean (GIO) (apart from the Middle East) makes no strategic sense. The future lies below the Tropic of Cancer, in the emerging postmodern empire built overnight by post-apartheid South Africa, in the enormous potential of Indonesia to pioneer a more successful, modern path for Islam, in the awakening capacities of India — and even in the enduring importance of Singapore, perhaps the most vital city-state since Athens. The GIO harbors terrible threats, as well (and not merely that possible, but unlikely, military confrontation between the U.S. and China): Nuclear-armed Pakistan is a Hamlet among nations, unsure of its identity and unable to decide on a decisive course of action. As in the play, the last act could litter the stage with bodies. Bangladesh, a human disaster, is prey to Islamist militancy. Beyond the familiar struggles in the Horn of Africa, the growing tension between jihadi Islam and the African Church Militant has already resulted in regional bloodlettings, from Sudan west to Nigeria. Saudi Arabia is doomed — its violent collapse only a matter of time, be it years or decades. And Iran remains a powerful short-term threat, but is also a potential U.S. ally in the longer term (Persians are a friendless, proud, hated people in a very nasty neighborhood). For now, the world continues to gulp Middle-Eastern oil, creating an immediate set of problems. Tomorrow, a diminished appetite for oil and the implosion of bankrupt regional states may generate other challenges entirely. No other region of the world offers such potential — and presents so many intractable problems. How might the future of the GIO look, if the United States thinks clearly and acts deftly (admittedly a tall order)? We should strive to build a new regional alliance aligning the United States with, in the first rank, Australia, Indonesia, Singapore, India, Iran (in the out-years) and South Africa. Desirable secondary allies would include New Zealand, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Kenya (if its government can be reformed), the islands with flags, and, perhaps, Tanzania, Mozambique and Malaysia. The challenge, of course, is for all of these governments, including our own, to move beyond the past century’s prejudices and petty bickering to grasp our commonality of interests. A greater Indian Ocean strategic alliance could be to the 21st century what the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was to the 20th: A military alliance that prevents a catastrophic war and fosters regional cooperation. But we need to have the vision to see beyond yesteryear’s divisions of the world — and to grasp that command of the Indian Ocean will be decisive to the global future. |
| Posted by:Nimble Spemble |
| #4 For some reason it reads as if Peters is trying to immitate Victor Davis Hanson's style but isn't really as good with the metaphors. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2006-04-06 15:27 |
| #3 The future lies below the Tropic of Cancer, in the emerging postmodern empire built overnight by post-apartheid South Africa, Ralph is right. Rantburg has been urging this for months. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2006-04-06 12:26 |
| #2 The Chinese are establishing a line of bases along the east coast, primarily Burma. The Indians are building bases in the Nicobars and other local islands. |
| Posted by: Chuck Simmins 2006-04-06 11:43 |
| #1 Yeah, thank god for such scintillating originality and clarity of thought. Bush ought to consider doing some kind of nuke deal with India. Glad I thought of it. |
| Posted by: Perfesser 2006-04-06 11:31 |