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| Terror Networks & Islam |
| Binny remains silent as Zarqawi widens his campaign |
| 2005-11-11 |
| Why has Osama bin Laden gone silent? While his lieutenant in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has not only stepped up the insurgency there but also claimed responsibility for three suicide bombs in Jordan this week, the al Qaeda leader has released no audio message since last December and has not been seen on video for over a year. Bin Laden's longest public silence since the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001 is unlikely to be because he has suddenly gone shy, U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld remarked ironically to German magazine Der Spiegel last month. Intelligence officials and security analysts see two explanations -- that bin Laden is so tightly holed up that he cannot smuggle out messages, or that he is biding his time and preparing a major announcement. "Some of the means he had to communicate have dried up," said a U.S. counter-terrorism official, who declined to elaborate. "He's isolated, and has difficulty communicating." He described this as an impediment to al Qaeda's propaganda. Western intelligence officials say such messages, usually shown on Arab television channels such as al Jazeera, have a significant mobilising impact on potential followers. In the absence of new material from bin Laden, widely believed to be hiding in inaccessible mountain terrain between Pakistan and Afghanistan, his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri has become the chief mouthpiece of the al Qaeda leadership, issuing one audio and five video tapes since the start of this year. "We have no indications (bin Laden) is no longer alive. We haven't seen any messages from bin Laden but we have seen messages from Zawahri," German foreign intelligence chief August Hanning told reporters this week. "I believe this whole communications channel that was built up in Pakistan by the al Qaeda structure is still quite effective and is functioning well." That may suggest that Zawahri and bin Laden are hiding at separate locations, said Mustafi Alani, a security analyst at the Gulf Research Centre in Dubai. Or it could be that bin Laden has deliberately delegated communications to his deputy in order to maximise the dramatic impact of his own rare appearances, like his video message just before last year's U.S. presidential election. According to this theory, "Osama bin Laden will appear when there is a major, major operation again ... This will have maximum publicity," Alani said. "This will give the impression there is some sort of structure still functioning within al Qaeda, that the leader will only appear when there is something very important, but the day-to-day dealing with the media is left to somebody else." Alani noted it was also Zawahri, not bin Laden, who in July purportedly wrote a long letter to Zarqawi which was intercepted by the United States and cited by Washington as evidence of splits between Zarqawi and the al Qaeda leadership. The letter questioned some of Zarqawi's tactics, including attacks on Shi'ite Muslims and the beheading of hostages, although it also thanked him for his "heroic acts" and invoked blessings on him. Zarqawi -- whose group denied the authenticity of the letter -- has not only cemented his reputation as al Qaeda's most ruthless and successful field commander in Iraq, but also struck in his native Jordan this week with the suicide bombings of three Amman hotels in which at least 56 people were killed. German spy chief Hanning said Zarqawi's highly visible campaign in Iraq and beyond was increasingly making him a model for militants in Europe as well as across the Middle East. But Alani said there was no prospect of Zarqawi supplanting bin Laden in influence. "He cannot compete with Osama bin Laden. Osama bin Laden is too big, too important ... When you say al Qaeda, inevitably people link it to Osama bin Laden and this sort of position will not be filled by a field commander like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi." While Zarqawi is the movement's top operational figure, Alani said bin Laden had long since assumed a mainly symbolic role as the original al Qaeda has become more fragmented and diffuse, with scattered groups and cells looking to him as a spiritual mentor. "The question of whether he is in the public eye or not apparently has minimal impact on operations," he said. "Al Qaeda has passed this stage. Al Qaeda can really operate without a bin Laden, without Afghanistan as a base and without a headquarters, command and control ... Now we have al Qaedas, rather than al Qaeda." |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #6 Coming soon to the Al Jihad channel Weekend with Osama. |
| Posted by: DMFD 2005-11-11 18:57 |
| #5 He's just taking a quick dirt nap. |
| Posted by: DMFD 2005-11-11 18:56 |
| #4 Time for serious around-the-clock surveillance of Al Jazeera offices where the next videotape might get dropped off or internet file delivered. A big order, but lets see NSA & CIA earn their pay. |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2005-11-11 15:26 |
| #3 And what's with that Duke professor with the throbbing erection pointing in my general direction? His wife's not doing the job at home or something? Does he know what we do to his type? |
| Posted by: Osama bin Laden 2005-11-11 14:05 |
| #2 I'm not dead; I'm just resting! |
| Posted by: Osama bin Laden 2005-11-11 14:02 |
| #1 "He's still dead, Jim." |
| Posted by: SR-71 2005-11-11 13:46 |