| Filed in the Rantburg archives under 'F'ing duh'. |
| Which GWB was smart enough to realize would never happen. |
The declassified papers for the most part present detailed assessments of Iraqâs political, military and economic strengths and weaknesses over nearly three decades. They also show that US intelligence had an early understanding that overthrowing the Iraqi dictator would lead to instability that could pull the country apart. Saddamâs removal âcould usher in an extended period of instability in Baghdad. His successors probably could not maintain Saddamâs system of tight control and any post-Saddam regime is almost certain to fall into factional fighting,â said a 1985 CIA report on Iraq.
The report said that such infighting raised the chances of an Iran-backed fundamentalist Islamic regime coming to power â a widely anticipated possibility since the US invasion which toppled Saddam in April 2003. And a December 1993 analysis of Husseinâs survivability, while giving him an even chance of being overthrown within three years, also foresaw that if Saddam fell, âthe Kurds, for example, might be tempted to declare independence, while the Shias in the south would likely escalate their rebellion.â
Similarly, the recent political infighting over the new Iraq constitution has focused in a large part on Kurdish and southern Shia pressures for a large amount of political and economic autonomy.