"In Syria the plot is king. Even if Ghazi Kanaan did commit suicide, most Lebanese are going to jump to the conclusion that he was murdered.

"His death seems to kill two birds with one stone. The Syrian regime can now use Kanaan as a scapegoat over the UN investigation into the assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. It also eliminates a potential challenge to the current regime and the presidency.

"Kanaan was a very powerful figure from the Alawi sect which is at the core of the Syrian regime. After 21 years as the effective ruler of Lebanon he went back to Damascus and the following year was made Interior Minister. "He was one of the old guard from the time of former president Hafez Assad, whose son, Bashar, has slowly got rid of his father's generation. Now there are only a couple left. Kanaan was nonetheless a very powerful figure.

"He was a strong-willed man, very sharp and intelligent, who had weathered many crises over the years from the mid-1970s throughout Lebanon's civil war. He dealt with the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in the 1980s, the chaos and disorder, and he was able to survive all this and come through unscathed.

"He was a very capable figure and it doesn't make much sense that at this stage in his life he would kill himself just because he might be implicated in Hariri's assassination. That wasn't very likely anyway. He had a good relationship with Hariri, after working with him for a number of years. "Like Hariri, Kanaan opposed extending by three years the mandate of the pro-Syrian Lebanese President, Emile Lahoud.

"He was one of the old regime figures who were more realistic and correctly foresaw that extending Mr Lahoud's presidency would cause problems. He warned that Syria was in enough trouble with the US as it was.

"Kanaan was seen as a potential alternative to President Bashar al-Assad, which made him something of a threat. There have been rumours for some months that Kanaan was going to be kicked out of government.

"I have just been talking to a very prominent Damascus analyst, who predicts that Kanaan will be blamed for the Hariri assassination.
"This would lift the international pressure off the Syrian regime, and avoid the risk that Kanaan might launch a coup backed by the US and take over the presidency."