| Submit your comments on this article |
| -Short Attention Span Theater- |
| Hurricane Rita now Cat Two |
| 2005-09-20 |
| AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM..NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DIRECTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REACHED 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. Latest projected track here. Computer models here. Tending west, looks like Corpus Christi - Houston area |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #12 Fox had a NOAA forecaster - unfortunate name of Bastardi - who put it on the table - Cat 5 by Galveston. Crap....tie down if you can't get out, Texas! |
| Posted by: Frank G 2005-09-20 23:10 |
| #11 Guess I'd better tank up tomorrow morning on the way to work instead of waiting until Friday as I normally do. (Noticed it was $2.68 this afternoon when I was out.) |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2005-09-20 21:30 |
| #10 Yeah, the models are starting to converge on Texas coast. Likely landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston, all depends on how soon that big high pressure area sitting over me moves east. |
| Posted by: Steve 2005-09-20 16:15 |
| #9 Which do you prefer? Models are usually too skinny, but that's just me. ;-) |
| Posted by: .com 2005-09-20 15:49 |
| #8 Whoops, make that four. |
| Posted by: Anon4021 2005-09-20 15:46 |
| #7 Also http://www.thestormtrack.com/images/Rita_091905_11pm_track.png c/o http://thestormtrack.com/ I got three models coming at me. :( |
| Posted by: Anon4021 2005-09-20 15:44 |
| #6 Man, and just when Gas prices are going down. Models have it going for Houston area. That's going to suck. Galveston/Texas City/Houston. That's like a High-value Target, econ-wise. :( I hope it just hits the King Ranch or something. After Katrina, everyone is freaked out. I just need to get more beer and more ammo and I should be good to go. :( |
| Posted by: Anon4021 2005-09-20 15:33 |
| #5 Maybe if we all blow at the same time we can get this one to go to Vera Cruz. |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2005-09-20 11:34 |
| #4 Rita has become the ninth hurricane of the 2005 season. Data from Doppler radar from Key West...satellite and reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Rita has become a hurricane. Doppler radar peak winds at 5 to 10 thousand feet have been oscillating between 90 and 95 knots with an isolated peak of 100 knots...and dropsondes in the eyewall support an initial intensity of 75 knots. The pressure has decreased to 982 mb...and the satellite presentation has improved with very deep convection and well-established outflow. Both the upper-level environment and the ocean below Rita are conducive for additional intensification. The official forecast gradually brings the winds up but...it does not include the distinct possibility of rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico since it is difficult to forecast. Rita will have plenty of time over the Gulf of Mexico to go up and down in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. Rita is moving westward or 270 degrees at 13 knots since it is already south of a deep layer mean ridge. This pattern is forecast to persist for the next 24 to 48 hours. Therafter...the high is expected to move eastward leaving a weakness over the western Gulf of Mexico. This forecast pattern should eventually force Rita toward the northwest toward the Texas coast. This is one the cases of relatively high confidence in the track forecast since most of the reliable guidance are tightly clustered. For those who follow just the skinny black line...it is always good to remind them that 3 to 5 day forecast errors can be large. Forecaster Avila |
| Posted by: Steve 2005-09-20 11:24 |
| #3 I've been away from home for a little over three weeks now. I've decided to think of this as just a really, really bad business trip. |
| Posted by: Matt 2005-09-20 11:13 |
| #2 I topped up yesterday...oil futures up $4.00/barrel |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2005-09-20 11:07 |
| #1 Top off your gas tanks. If Rita hits Texas, a lot of refineries will shut down and gas prices will shoot up. |
| Posted by: ed 2005-09-20 10:54 |
