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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| EU puts Chinese arms embargo on the back burner |
| 2005-06-08 |
| If things had gone to plan, European and Chinese officials would be clinking champagne glasses about now. Back in December, the European Union said it would do its best to lift its 15-year-old arms embargo on China during the first half of this year. That means the last rites on the ban would probably have been read at a foreign ministers meeting to be held next Monday, with a statement of official satisfaction at an EU summit later in the week. It would have been the culmination of a campaign waged by French president Jacques Chirac and German chancellor Gerhard Schröder, both keen to improve ties and trade with Beijing. But although all 25 EU nations signed up to the plan, they failed to take account of three key factors: America, China itself and German public opinion. In fact, the Chinese embargo is set to stay with us for a good while yet. Take the American aspect first. President George W. Bush made clear his country's objections to any end to the embargo at an EU-US summit last June. Then the US stepped up its complaints, to the surprise of European officials. Then it repeated them, still louder. This was not something the EU was figuring on. Europeans complained that the current "symbolic" embargo did not work, that the US was in any case more concerned about transfers of technology rather than weapons, and that it was better to engage than to alienate Beijing. They added that the EU would toughen up its code of conduct on arms exports throughout the world. To no avail. The US Congress announced its plans to restrict technology transfers to Europe if the embargo was ever lifted and the Bush administration made clear it would not do much to help. That was setback number one, which was so serious that setback number two, when it arrived, was something of a relief. The second setback was China's own diplomatic clumsiness. Because the EU had originally imposed the embargo as a result of the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989, European leaders were understandably keen to see improvements in China's human rights record. They took care not to express their concerns as a formal condition Beijing doesn't like being dictated to. But the Europeans did indicate that a Chinese move, such as ratifying a United Nations covenant on human rights, would make it easier to lift the embargo. And what did China do? Nothing. No large-scale release of Tiananmen internees, no ratification of the covenant the EU wanted to see on the statute book, no gesture to help Europe on its way. Instead, Beijing passed an "anti-secession" law a move widely seen as contemplating eventual military action against Taiwan. Britain, always the most conflicted of the big powers over the Chinese ban, swiftly announced that lifting the embargo had become more "complicated" and then intimated that the whole project could be put on hold. Still, Beijing's hopes of an end to the embargo were not yet definitively dashed. All of the EU's countries are alive to investment opportunities in China and no-one wanted to be singled out for blame by Beijing. The UK wasn't alone in its objections - the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and the Czech Republic all had misgivings about phasing out the embargo, due to strong feelings about, variously, human rights and communist rule. But there was little doubt that if Britain rejoined the lift-the-embargo-now school, no other country would want to stand in China's way. And then came the third factor - the voters of North Rhine-Westphalia. The overwhelming defeat suffered by Mr Schröder's Social Democrats in the state poll, and his subsequent decision to hold a general election a year early, have transformed the landscape of European politics. The opposition Christian Democrats, way ahead in the polls, have long made clear their misgivings about lifting the embargo and Mr Schröder's Social Democrats are none too enthusiastic either. It now looks all but inconceivable that Germany can agree any change on the embargo ahead of the election, expected in September. It is difficult to see any rush after that. That does not mean that the EU will never lift the embargo, but such a step now seems further off than any point over the past 18 months. China may still believe that its arguments and the Europeans' mercantalist streak will ultimately prevail. France, now prepared to give legal force to the hitherto voluntary code of conduct, has also not given up hope over an end to the embargo. But with the EU now in chaos over in its constitutional treaty who knows when it will ever happen. Certainly not next week. we'll see. weapons sales are one of the ways Chirac can try to placate French demands that the welfare state stay plush. given France's willingness to go around their public commitments and the frothing-at-the-mouth, kneejerk desire to stymie the US I wouldn't bet the farm on them showing restraint now. |
| Posted by:too true |
| #3 The headline is misleading: It should read: EU puts lifting of Chinese arms embargo on the back burner |
| Posted by: True German Ally 2005-06-08 12:24 |
| #2 Nonsense. You're ignoring history. France/Chirac will do what's best for France/Chirac. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2005-06-08 10:56 |
| #1 i cant see Chirac doing anything that hurts Schroeder in the upcoming German election. I really doubt he wants to see Merkel in office. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2005-06-08 09:58 |