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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| The future of Uzbekistan |
| 2005-06-02 |
| To assess the nature and likely development of terrorist threats to Uzbekistan in the wake of the Andijan massacre, we must determine what exactly happened there on May 12-13 and place this massacre — which may have taken as many as 1,000 lives — in context. [1] Uzbekistan, China, Russia, and other Central Asian governments quickly blamed the uprising on Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT), the Taliban and other Islamist movements outside of Uzbekistan. This, of course, is the standard response by all these regimes to any disturbance within the CIS and it is not just an ignorant pro forma response that is exculpatory, but it is also utterly self-serving. Hizb ut-Tahrir, not surprisingly, proclaimed that the events in Andijan had nothing to do with it and were a provocation by Islam Karimov's government intended to discredit it, an equally exculpatory and self-serving response. Many foreign analysts, human rights organizations and local reporters tend to discount claims of HT involvement and accuse Karimov's regime of overreacting to the demonstration. While they are correct, their analysis too is clearly incomplete. However, we can place what is known of events there in a context that can explain how and why they occurred and their significance for the future. First and foremost, the demonstrations that prompted the violent reprisal were only the latest in an increasing and apparently escalating series of attacks and popular demonstrations against the regime, its economic misrule, and repression. In 2004, there were at least four episodes of either terrorist bombings or popular unrest directed at the regime and its notoriously corrupt police. All these events highlighted the erosion of popular support for the regime, the hatred of the police, the pervasive corruption of the regime, and the real possibility of growing support for groups like HT. In all cases, the government blamed HT for these events. In a further sign that popular discontent with the Karimov regime is growing, on May 3, 2005 demonstrators marched in front of the U.S. embassy in Tashkent against the regime only to be forcibly dispersed. While all these cases show a rising tide of disaffection, not least due to the widespread economic misery and corruption of the regime, it is also quite likely that HT's influence is growing. Many observers and foreign experts believe that particularly in the Fergana Valley, where Andijan is located, HT and IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) influence is growing due to the repression of religion, dissent, and the regime's economic autocracy. Certainly for the last two years press reports indicate a growing fear among Kyrgyz officials, both before and after Kyrgyzstan's revolution, of HT's rising influence and presence. Similarly, neighboring governments like Kazakstan and Kyrgyzstan have expressed rising concern about Karimov's policies and their potential fallout for their own government. For example, a trial in Kazakstan of 16 men who are accused of some of the bombings in 2004 in Tashkent is currently taking place, indicating the spread of Uzbek-based terrorism to Kazakstan. [2] |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #1 last! |
| Posted by: muck4doo 2005-06-02 23:58 |