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Iraq-Jordan
40,000 Iraqi troops throughout Baghdad to target terrorists
2005-05-27
BAGHDAD — Deepening the speculation about the severity of battle injuries to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, his followers Thursday squabbled on the Web over naming a new leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, exposing rifts and raising questions about how the insurgency may change.
May has seen one of the bloodiest waves of violence to date in Iraq. More than 620 Iraqis and 60 US troops have died since the Shiite-led government was formed April 28.

Analysts say the insurgency can probably carry on for now with or without Mr. Zarqawi's guiding hand, pointing to the high level of bloodshed that killed at least 13 more people Thursday. But it is under increasing pressure from numerous US offensives in western Iraq, the loss of two-dozen top lieutenants, and intelligence from Zarqawi's captured computer. Iraq's budding government is also tightening its grip, announcing Thursday that it would launch a new offensive with 40,000 troops and set up 600 checkpoints in Baghdad.

"These operations will aim to turn the government's role from defensive to offensive," said Iraqi Interior Minister Bayan Jabor. Mr. Jabor said he is "not sure whether [Zarqawi] is dead, but we are sure that he is injured."

The long-term impact on a driving force behind the multifaceted insurgency may depend on whether Zarqawi dies or recovers enough to become "spiritual leader" of the group. "It won't make a great deal of difference if he has a more backseat role, but he will be more vulnerable," says Magnus Ranstorp, head of the Center for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St. Andrews University in Scotland.

"If he dies, it would be a blow," says Mr. Ranstorp, contacted in Copenhagen. "It may atomize the insurgency, and different centers of gravity would emerge. He is a unifying factor for them."
So, okay, he dies.
Those divisions already appear to be taking root, with competing claims Thursday on the Web about the appointment of an interim leader of the group. A website that frequently posts statements by Al Qaeda in Iraq wrote: "The leaders met after the wounding of our Sheikh Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, may God heal him, and decided to appoint a deputy to assume the leadership until the return of our Sheikh safely."

According to that statement, the chosen man is Sheikh Abu Hafs al-Qarni - a Saudi militant who is believed to be Zarqawi's military adviser. He is "renowned for carrying out the most difficult operations" chosen by Zarqawi, on whose head Washington has placed a $25 million bounty. But shortly afterward, a new statement was posted, refuting the first and signed with the name normally attached to statements by Al Qaeda in Iraq. "We deny all that has been said about appointing the so-called Abu Hafs or anyone by any other name," it read.

Information about Zarqawi's condition is surfacing as several trends buffet the insurgency. US and Iraqi forces, which have launched three major offensives in the volatile western Anbar Province this month, report a rapid increase in intelligence they get from Iraqis weary of the violence, as well as from senior detainees.

The intense violence of May has also hidden the fact that fewer attacks have taken place against US and Iraqi government targets, according to US officials. They say that the current surge - 118 car bombs since mid-April - was ordered by Zarqawi at a meeting last month in Syria.
Posted by:Steve White

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