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Arabia

Fahd clinically dead... rumors 're rife, but then, he was not much alive lately either

2005-04-30

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah's visit to the United States this week to discuss oil matters with President George W. Bush, took place amid growing speculation back home that the bed-ridden King Fahd's condition has worsened with the monarch slipping out of conciousness. Speculation is rife among Riyadh's ruling elite of Fahd's clinical death - but even if this were true, any official announcement would delayed until a final decision on Fahd's successor has been taken.

If Suha shows up, we know it's true...

"Where's the damned KRUGERRANDS!?!?!"

Sources close to the Saudi royal family told Adnkronos International about the "suspicious" disappearance of King Fahd from public scene in the last ten days. At the same time, the sources have noted frantic activity involving the Seven Sudaris - the seven sons of King Abdul Aziz's wife, who hailed from Saudi Arabia's Sudari tribe, around whom the succession question revolves - King Fahd and Defence Minister Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz are two of the most powerful Sudari sevens. Crown Prince Abdullah - who is Fahd's half brother - has long been touted to ascend the throne, but well placed sources maintain that there is resistance from other Sudari sevens members who favour closer ties with the West, something which Abdullah, who is very popular among Saudi religious circles, seems reluctant to cultivate. However, past efforts to promote the more Western-friendly defence minister Prince Sultan as Crown Prince instead of Abdullah failed because of division among the Sudaris.

Abdullah seems likely to remain the main beneficiary of internal Sudari squabbling, and already three years ago, he set up a Royal Council including all the 65 sons of the late King Abdul Aziz to settle all disputes related to the monarchy.

65 sons! Old goat like that?

It is believed that Abdullah is more acceptable to the majority of the Royal Council members than any other candidate. Hower, the succession is unlikely to be smooth and a new phase of conflict could start in oil-rich Saudi Arabia, also a strategic hub in the war against terrorism given the Saudi origins of most of the September 11, 2001 hijackers, and Osama bin Laden is thought to have many supporters in the country's military and religious establishments.

Posted by:Sobiesky

#9 Steve - in this case, I'd WANT the world to know. I would shout it from the rooftops - you mess with the US, you end up hanging from a lamppost. If it means taking out half the population of a country, we're mean, evil, wicked, bad, nasty, cruel and heartless enough to do it. I'd want every nation in the world to know that if you kill American citizens, if you make war against the United States -economically, politically, culturally, militarily, or clandestinely - we will stomp you until you learn to "play nice", or there's no one left to stomp. That's been one of the major problems with the State Department since Truman - no one has the cojones to stand up to the petty dictators and remind them of Germany and Japan, and what we can do when we get riled. It's a lesson long overdue.

Posted by: Old Patriot 2005-04-30 11:16:15 PM

#8 OP, much as I dislike the Wabs, we had to stomp Saddam first. No way, no how could we deal with the Wabs, protect the oil and establish the Republic of Eastern Arabia with Sammy sitting there ready to undo everything and fund every terrorist we shook loose.

Lampposts? Nah. Traffic accidents in the desert. The princes should get involved in a 100-car wreck in the Empty Quarter. The world will still get the message, and it's much more fun to smile gently with plausible deniability: "who, us?"

Posted by: Steve White 2005-04-30 8:39:45 PM

#7 Does it really matter? In the end, the United States is going to have to stomp the living cpar out of all of them, establish an interim government, and kill all the Wahabbis in order to end the 'war on terror'. I personally think we should have done THAT first, then go into Iraq. We also need to do some SERIOUS house-cleaning in the State Department (as the Bolton appointment illustrates) if it's going to work in the best interest of the United States, rather than Saudi House of Bribes. Personally, I'd like to see all seven of the Sudaris hanging from the same lamp post - in Brooklin. I think the world would get the hint.

Posted by: Old Patriot 2005-04-30 2:55:34 PM

#6 Quana's got the questions, anyone with an answer? Was the King complete PVS?

Posted by: Shipman 2005-04-30 1:02:18 PM

#5 maybe if they loosen the fan belts he'll have some brain waves

Posted by: Frank G 2005-04-30 12:02:22 PM

#4 Have to agree with .com on this one.

Nayef does appear to be the strongest among the Sudaris in terms of slyness and behind-the-scenes machinations. It appeared that Sultan got his spanking three years ago with the questionable-circumstances deaths of the princes. (I've forgotten how many, one died from a heart attack, another from a car wreck and a third died of "thirst" in the desert-although his companions were reported to have survived).

My question is "why now?" As I understand it, Fahd's been clinically dead for years. So what is the impetus for his "dying" now? Has he reached some agreed upon expiration date for which belief in his "aliveness" can no longer be suspended? Has something else occurred in the deep labryinths of Saudi (for lack of a better word) "politics" that has flown by under the radar?

Are the battle plans set? Princes in their positions? Warriors up on the blocks? Is it a "GO" for civil war? Has OIF finally pushed the Saudis into the first phases of their fall from power?

As for the oil, I think I'll have butter. Yeah.

Posted by: Quana 2005-04-30 11:41:58 AM

#3 .com -
FWIW, while I was over there, we were always under the impression that Prince Sultan would have been the guy who told us "Thanks for coming, now go home." He is probably the most westernized of the princes, but as you said, given his record that doesn't say a hell of a lot. I don't believe that any of the princes in the possible line of succession are hard-core Wahabbis, but not a one of them will lift a finger to rein them in. Remember that both sides have their own private armies - the House of Saud in the form of the Saudi National Guard, and the Wahabbis in the Mutaawa. Watch what those two groups do.

Mike

Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2005-04-30 10:29:21 AM

#2 Oooh. What fun... Speculation, heh.

I find the article's speculation that Sultan is the strongest of the Sudaris odd... I believe that Nayef is the strongest among them. I guess we shall see, heh. Whether CP Abdullah gets it or not is the main issue, IMHO.

Nayef as King would be the long-awaited public declaration of war against the West, IMNERHO. I don't think he's the most hardcore Wahhabist, exactly, just the highest ranking of the truly anti-West faction(s). I would expect a deterioration of the small showplace cooperative efforts (FBI, banking reforms, etc) to follow.

Sultan should be less virulently anti-West -- I think. He spends far more time working directly with the West, particularly the US Military and contractors like SAIC (who developed their C&C system and have run it for almost 20 yrs). So he should have fewer illusions about the West in general, and the US in particular, than Nayef. I have no idea what he would do, specifically, but his denial of US use of bases on multiple occasions, such as the Iraq War, does not exactly bode well, now does it? He's a hardcore muzzy... Dunno if that really means hardcore Wahhabi.

Abdullah, no lover of the West, is, however, very pragmatic and would certainly continue things much as they are now - with only window-dressing changes, I'd bet, except where he was forced by the demographics-driven decline in the economic health of KSA.

The real action will be in all of the other positions, after a winner is declared. They've all positioned sons, nephews, supporters in as many spots as they could manage. Some of those who backed a loser, will have to be removed by the winner to consolidate power.

Popcorn is called for just because it's Prince on Prince. Butter optional.

Just my take.

Global Security's background on the Saudi Leadership is very interesting reading, for those so inclined.

Posted by: .com 2005-04-30 1:41:18 AM

#1 Wow, a literal Brotherhood. Sounds like Abdullah better watch it near elevator shafts and such.

Posted by: Snump Javiling7225 2005-04-30 1:06:05 AM

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