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| Afghanistan/South Asia |
| The perplexing picure of Pakistani politics |
| 2005-04-29 |
| The abiding reality of Pakistan's politics is that the more it changes, the more it remains the same. Understandably so. The rules of 'power play' practiced by Pakistan's dominant power brokers, the Establishment, remain unchanged. After a coup d'etat they look for the 'best' and the most 'suitable' politicians to run the government in junior partnership with the Establishment. In 2002, through pre-poll political manipulation, the Musharraf government brought those people in power it then believed were the 'best.' Now some of those assessments have changed. For example the MMA is no longer the Establishment's favourite. Changes within the PML (Q) too cannot be ruled out. Currently, there is much political activity: the Establishment is engaging with the PPP leadership; on the ground PPP workers continue to be arrested; the PPP-PML(N) are uniting but with reservations; within the PML(N) there are those who believe there should be no engagement with the army or with the army supported PML(Q) while some believe otherwise; the Establishment seeks a 'political rollback' of the MMA it had helped to create and support in the 2002 elections; within the PML(Q) there are signs of an emerging power struggle with all eyes on the 2007 prime ministerial slot; the president himself has joined the political fray calling for a defeat of extremist political forces and hoping for a victory of the moderate forces; in Sindh the internal battle within the PML(Q) continues; the Establishment-favoured MQM and the MMA appear headed for a political showdown in the coming local bodies election. Much of this activity is restricted to new steps being taken by the Establishment and the political parties. It does not necessarily reflect any new thinking within the Establishment, which would want to divide the ARD and also rule out any possibility of MMA-ARD unity. The president himself has talked about PPP as a mainstream moderate political force which can promote "enlightened moderation." While the Establishment-PPP dialogue continues, no basis for their continued cooperation has yet been worked out. Still sections within the Establishment's main party, the PML(Q), are already insecure about the engagement. After all, the PML(Q) as yet is merely a paper party put together by the Establishment and survives because of its support. |
| Posted by:Paul Moloney |