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Home Front: Economy
Oil Prices Surge Above $55 a Barrel
2005-04-24
Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel Friday as global supply concerns were stoked by a terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia and refinery snags in the United States. Light, sweet crude for June delivery jumped $1.19 to settle at $55.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gasoline futures climbed 3.23 cents to $1.653 per gallon, reflecting pre-summer supply worries amid a rash of refinery shutdowns, including a decision by Valero Energy Corp. to reduce output at its St. Charles refinery in order to perform maintenance. Heating oil futures rose 1.11 cent to $1.5451 per gallon. In London, Brent crude for June delivery was up 96 cents at $54.97 per barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

"There is a general fear in the market that gasoline supplies will be very tight heading into the summer and glitches at U.S. refineries further exacerbate that issue," said Adam Sieminski, an oil price strategist at Deutsche Bank in London.

James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Fla., disagreed. He said U.S. supplies of both oil and gasoline are "more than ample" and that the stubbornly high price of crude reflects broader concerns about demand growth in China and the ability of OPEC to keep up. "This is a global rally," he said. "If we were just to focus on U.S. inventories, we wouldn't be at $55."

Global demand is expected to average more than 84 million barrels a day in 2005, while spare output capacity is believed to be about 1.5 million barrels a day, most of it in Saudi Arabia.

The Department of Energy said in its weekly petroleum supply report Wednesday that the U.S. supply of crude oil stood last week at 318.9 million barrels, or 8 percent above year ago levels. Gasoline inventories stood at 211.6 million barrels, or 5 percent above year ago levels.

In Saudi Arabia on Thursday, suspected militants linked to al-Qaida clashed with security forces, prompting fresh fears of a supply disruption from the world's largest exporter. Two extremists and two policemen were killed. "Terrorism definitely factors into prices," said Tetsu Emori, energy analyst at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo.

The U.S. government's weekly supply report has been a major factor influencing prices. "People are looking at inventory data, especially gasoline. But if you compare the stocks with last year's levels, it remains quite healthy," Emori said.
Posted by:Steve White

#7  Nuclear f---ing power, NOW. Let's get the projects underway asap and quit dithering over whether oil will drop again. We've wasted decades and have no more time to waste.
Posted by: thibaud (aka lex)   2005-04-24 9:01:04 PM  

#6  Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel Friday as global supply concerns were stoked by a terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia and refinery snags in the United States.

So what is it? Increasing consumption by China/India, or terrorist attacks and refinery snags? It seems ther have been a hundred different reasons given, and each one rotated accordingly.
Posted by: Bomb-a-rama   2005-04-24 7:50:09 PM  

#5  That's true SPoD, course they might not sell much.
Posted by: Shipman   2005-04-24 7:32:07 PM  

#4  Only if they keep taking your money Shipman. If they decied to swap to Â¥ or € we are screwed.
Posted by: Sock Puppet 0’ Doom   2005-04-24 6:27:32 PM  

#3  You can think of oil as a tax on economic activity that is applied everywhere. Like any tax, its effect is to depress the level of whatever is taxed more or less equally. China is growing at 10%+ pa, the USA 3to4%. Europe 1to2%. So China's economic activity has to be depressed by much more than Europe's to go into recession. The USA is between the two. Although once a major and coordinated recession starts other factors come into play, like debt levels and quality, which may be more of a problem for China.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-04-24 6:24:09 PM  

#2  Why would economic growth continue in China but not the US? Energy input per unit GNP is lower in the US isn't it? Meaning to say, the US is in a better position to buy 80 bucks a barrel oil than China is.
Posted by: Shipman   2005-04-24 6:08:42 PM  

#1  Global demand is expected to average more than 84 million barrels a day in 2005, while spare output capacity is believed to be about 1.5 million barrels a day, most of it in Saudi Arabia. This is a particularly ignorant piece of reporting. What is relevant to the spare capacity is the rate of increase in demand, not the average over some arbitrary period. The latest figures I could find shows production in February was 84.2 mbpd. Demand is increasing at between 2.5% and 3.5% per annum. So the increase in demand this year alone is around twice the spare capacity. We run out of supply before the end of 2005. What happens then? The oil price rockets and economies crash (bringing demand back down). There will no global economic growth until significant alternate energy sources are brought online, i.e. nuclear, at least 5 years. No growth for years or even worse growth concentrated in China and a few other places in Asia and prolonged contraction especially in Europe will bring severe social disruption. Terrorism causing supply disruptions merely makes it happen a few months sooner.

If anyone has an alternate scenario, I'd be interested in hearing it.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-04-24 5:53:36 PM  

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