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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| The Eastern Question |
| 2005-03-26 |
| As Kyrgyzstan's ill-coordinated opposition politicians struggle to convert the abrupt triumph of "people power" into an orderly change of government, they have been freed of anxiety on one count. Vladimir Putin, who made no secret of his hostility to regime change in Georgia and Ukraine, has been swift to declare Russia's readiness to work with the new leaders of this small but strategically sensitive Central Asian republic. The gesture is doubly important because of the fugitive Askar Akayev's claim to be the country's unlawfully dislodged President, and his insistence that he intends to return. Mr Putin has understood the necessity, after Kyrgyzstan's almost accidental revolution, of minimising the dangers of continuing uncertainty in a poor and perilously disillusioned land where north-south divisions are already so acute that the country could, with destabilising effects on the whole of Central Asia, potentially split apart. Neither Russians nor Americans should have problems doing business with Kyrzyzstan, however. Foreign policy was not an issue in this revolution: proximity to China makes most Kyrgyz value friendly relations with Russia, which they have no difficulty in reconciling with closeness to the United States. The Opposition is largely composed of former Akayev allies — including a former Foreign Minister, police chief, and Finance Minister — who broke with him as his appetite for enriching his family eroded his credentials as a moderniser. Many have huge support in the increasingly radicalised Islamist south, but they consider themselves to be "Western" politicians. There is no reason to expect them to be any more amenable to Islamist terrorism, or to Afghan drug trafficking, than was the Akayev regime. Their ability to assuage the south's profound discontents, however, is in question. And it is its troubled south that makes Kyrgyzstan pivotal in the broader war on terror. The cities of Osh and Jalalabad, where the revolution first took hold, lie along the eastern rim of the Fergana Valley where Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan meet. The valley has served as a base from which terrorists affiliated to al-Qaeda have launched raids. The threat remains. That is one reason why what happens in Kyrgyzstan, a poor and moderately badly ruled country, matters more than its apparent isolation might suggest. The other is oil. The Central Asian "stans" are run by Soviet-era holdovers, strongmen who combine communist bureaucracy with clan-based authoritarianism reminiscent of the khanates. These regimes are sitting on the world's biggest untapped oil and gas fields, whose development is vital to the industrialised world, including China. Corruption and political risk hold back the foreign investment needed. If Kyrgyzstan can make democracy work, that will pile pressure on the dynasties of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. West and East are no longer fighting over these sweeping plains. It is in the interest of both that Central Asians should discover better ways to rule themselves. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #1 Article: Foreign policy was not an issue in this revolution: proximity to China makes most Kyrgyz value friendly relations with Russia, which they have no difficulty in reconciling with closeness to the United States. After giving up 1200 sq km (a little larger than NYC's five boroughs) to China in a recent border settlement, I guess they have reason to be nervous. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2005-03-26 12:59:49 AM |