| Submit your comments on this article |
| China-Japan-Koreas |
| The Japan Cards |
| 2005-02-22 |
| If China's anger does not translate into action against North Korea, expect the "Japan cards" to begin falling one by one. First, Japan will announce that it is accelerating the process of rethinking Article 9, a process begun in wake of 9-11 and originally planned to last several years. If China still fails to act, Japan's next step will probably be a formal abandonment of Article 9, which would mean for all intents and purposes that Japan's military is no longer just a force for self-defense. Tokyo could, and presumably would, project its forces wherever they might be needed. The last thing China wants is a resurgent Japanese military. The balance of power in Asia would shift away from Beijing and toward Tokyo overnight: Japan, with the world's second largest economy and access to American technology, would quickly become the region's dominant military power. But China may still allow North Korea to run on its long leash. In that case, the next Japan card would probably be an announcement that Japan and the United States will begin to manufacture military hardware on Japanese soil. With that would come a range of benefits to Japan, from the importation of expertise to a renewed capability to construct the military of its choosing, to an even closer relationship with the US. The actual hardware involved would likely be something that could benefit both Japan and Taiwan, again signaling to China that it must act on North Korea or risk losing its "renegade province" for good -- submarines or fighter aircraft fit the bill nicely. Missile defense cooperation might be an additional component of the hardware card. Should that card fail, the world is a short way from seeing what would have been unthinkable a few years ago: Japan becoming a nuclear power. Because of its sad history with the atomic bomb, Japan has long forbade the US from basing nuclear weapons on its soil and has never pursued building such weapons of its own. But it could build nuclear weapons at any time. At present, experts estimate that Japan is roughly six weeks away from producing a nuclear weapon. All it has to do is decide to do it, and the fact of a North Korean nuclear weapon sitting atop a No Dong missile capable of striking Tokyo combined with Chinese inaction would make that decision an easy one. Japan would go nuclear. |
| Posted by:Mrs. Davis |
| #4 The island of Japan is an aircraft carrier. Besides, the Japs don't want our old junk. They'd build their own aircraft carrier at massive expense. And a Japan with its own real military would be a heck of a lot less responsive to U.S. needs. (yes, technically Japan is four islands) |
| Posted by: gromky 2005-02-22 9:43:57 PM |
| #3 We should set a firm deadline for an agreement to be reached with regards to Chinese arms sales to Syria and Iran. If they do not agree, on the next day, sell an aircraft carrier to Japan for $1. |
| Posted by: cog 2005-02-22 8:14:59 PM |
| #2 We should set a firm deadline for an agreement to be reached with regards to Chinese arms sales to Syria and Iran. If they do not agree, on the next day, sell an aircraft carrier to Japan for $1. |
| Posted by: cog 2005-02-22 8:13:48 PM |
| #1 For future reference, I have heard this described as "The Four Doctrines". (1) The removal of Article 9 *and* its supporting legislation, bureaucratic regulation and legal precedent; (2) The creation of a Japanese Military-Industrial Complex, based on the American model; (3) The creation of a Japanese nuclear ballistic missile paradigm, to include Security Council membership; and (4) The establishment of a Japanese-Taiwanese-American Sphere of Influence with several other countries, much like NATO, but *not* SEATO. This just insures that any aggressive military buildup performed by China would be prohibitively expensive. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-02-22 7:11:46 PM |