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| World warms to Kyoto, but research will save the day |
| 2005-02-17 |
| If you are not thoroughly bored with Kyoto and climate change, this is a thoughtful view from a research scientist published in USA Today. I particularly liked the conclusion. One small step for man, one giant leap backward for mankind. That's how Wednesday's official start of the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty that aims to limit global warming, should be greeted. In 2001, the United States refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol over concerns that it will limit economic growth and put an unfair burden on developed countries, while rapidly developing countries — such as India and China — get a pass. Democrats and Republicans in Washington have been strangely united in opposition. And they're right. Kyoto is unusual in that it is, in effect, an agreement to restrain economic growth. By using regulatory fiat instead of market forces, it punishes the production of energy that drives modern life. Its emissions reduction targets are so modest that they will have little effect on future global warming, no matter what you believe that warming to be. Instead, the Kyoto Protocol is seen as a "first step" toward reductions in greenhouse-gas production. But even this first step will hurt the economies of most industrialized countries that participate. What the U.S. is doing: This week, the United States reminded the world that it isn't sitting idly by as the Earth melts. "While the United States and countries with binding emissions restrictions under the Kyoto Protocol are taking different paths, our destination is the same," said Richard Boucher of the State Department. He said the U.S. will spend about $5.8 billion this year alone on research into climate change and potential technology to fight it. Former Energy secretary Spencer Abraham said last year that the United States is investing more in new or clean energy research over the next five years than any other country. Hydrogen, clean coal, nuclear, fusion and renewables such as solar and wind are among the areas being aggressively researched. Though the Department of Energy admits these efforts will take years to decades to bear fruit, research — not minor and economically damaging cutbacks in carbon-dioxide production — is what will solve the problem. No doubt, some countries have signed on to the treaty for political reasons. Russia had strongly opposed the treaty. Then in May, the European Union told Russia that if it wanted to be part of the World Trade Organization, it would have to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Suddenly, late last year, Russia became a supporter. Also, the majority of the countries participating in Kyoto are undeveloped, and many of those stand to receive large payoffs by selling carbon credits (basically, a right to pollute) to industrialized countries. This is the economic shell game of the treaty. What about the science? And what of the global warming science that the Kyoto treaty is built upon? The Earth has indeed warmed in the past 100 years by about 1 degree Fahrenheit, although it is unknown how much of that is because of man's activities. Though a majority of climate researchers believe we now have enough understanding of how the climate system will react to a small increase in the greenhouse-gas concentration, this is an example of the scientific overconfidence that has contributed to a public distrust in scientific predictions. A minority of scientists, myself included, believe that the climate has as yet poorly understood stabilizing mechanisms that limit the amount of warming that will occur. After the self-congratulatory applause subsides, it will be interesting to see how many participating countries meet their Kyoto emissions targets. The United Kingdom has already asked for, and was denied, a reprieve from the EU. Action, not good intentions, will eventually solve the energy problem. In the coming years, the U.S. will continue to invest in research that will, once again, save the day. Roy Spencer performs government-sponsored climate monitoring research at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. |
| Posted by:phil_b |