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| Iraq-Jordan |
| Post-election politix ready to begin in Iraq |
| 2005-02-14 |
| The good news out of Iraq on Sunday: Election results, after two long weeks of counting, confirmed a large turnout. Despite insurgents' threats, 8.5 million Iraqis, 58% of eligible voters, cast ballots. The better news: The cleric-led Shiite group dominated, as expected, but fell well short of the two-thirds majority needed to control parliament. So it will have to work with other groups. Therein lies the key to Iraq's stability — and the hoped-for U.S. withdrawal. The test for Iraq's new government is not how much it looks like the U.S. Even Vice President Cheney now concedes that it won't. It is whether the Shiites can create a secular, representative government stable enough for the U.S. to withdraw but not leave behind a terrorist haven. Signs were promising after the vote count was completed Sunday. Shiite leaders went out of their way to assure the country's minorities that they would have a place in the new government. But the path ahead is challenging, particularly among Sunnis, 20% of the population. Sunday's results confirmed that unlike the Shiites and Kurds, the Sunnis barely voted. They have only a handful of seats in the new 275-member assembly. They are angry at losing the power they enjoyed for decades under Saddam Hussein and others. And they are the insurgency's main supporters. The Shiites have to convince Sunnis they won't use their new power to exact revenge for past torments. Most immediately, they have to find imaginative ways to include Sunnis in the next steps that will lay the foundation for the new Iraq — choosing leaders, drafting an inclusive constitution. That process will begin almost immediately as political groups horse-trade in choosing leaders endorsed by the new parliament. Will a Sunni get one of the top jobs? Will Sunnis get key advisory posts even though they weren't elected? Before the elections, Shiites in the victorious group promised to follow top cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. He envisages a secular government guided by Islamic principles, not a repressive theocracy as in neighboring Shiite Iran. But other ayatollahs have made worrisome statements about a government guided by Islamic law. For the Sunnis, meanwhile, the choice is whether to continue to be spoilers and fan the insurgency. Or be coaxed, as some Sunni leaders want, into the government. Much depends on how the Shiites handle them. The U.S. has little to say about any of this, but the stakes could not be higher. Success could drive a wedge between the Sunni and al-Qaeda elements of the insurgency, leading to more stability for Iraqis and an exit for Americans. Failure could produce civil war or ally Iraq with Iran. For now, though, the news could not be much more encouraging. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |