| So the future holds rule by gerontocracy. The House of Sod is going to be in a similar position to the Soviets under Andropov. |
Rumours about the health of Saudi Arabia's ailing King Fahd frequently prompt uncertainty and speculation, but diplomats expect a smooth succession that will not challenge stability in the world's leading oil exporter. The script calls for Crown Prince Abdullah, King Fahd's half-brother and a cautious reformist, to ascend the throne, and for Prince Sultan, currently the defence minister, to become crown prince in his stead. "The succession will be smooth, easy and simple," one Saudi official told Reuters. "There won't be a great deal of change." But while most diplomats predict a smooth transition in the immediate future, they believe the kingdom may face difficulties once a younger generation of princes vies for power. They say there is no clear successor from the younger generation. Since the forming of the modern Saudi state in 1932, the king and the royal family have named succeeding monarchs on the principle of "an heir and a spare". Saudi kings assume the throne after oaths of allegiance by a family council of 18 princes, a custom in the kingdom whose constitution is the Quran and the traditions of Prophet Mohammad (PBUH).
The bai'ah (oath of allegiance) process could be completed in a day but in line with custom an appointed council of ulemas (Muslim scholars) must declare the transfer of power legitimate. Abdullah, 81, has been managing the daily affairs of the kingdom since the king was incapacitated by a stroke 10 years ago. Although he has sometimes been seen as more pan-Arab nationalist and less open to the West than his stricken brother, sources say this is more a difference of style than substance. He is a known quantity expected to solidify Saudi Arabia's strong relationship with Western allies, principally the United States, Britain and France. At the same time, he has forged strong ties in the Arab world where he commands wide respect. "Once king, the crown prince won't change the policies of the kingdom. He would not rock the boat," one Western diplomat said. "King Fahd and the crown prince have different personalities but not different policies."
Abdullah is one of 44 sons fathered by the founder of modern Saudi Arabia, King Abdul-Aziz al-Saud - Ibn Saud - who reigned from 1932 until his death in 1953. Unlike King Fahd, Abdullah is not a member of the powerful Sudairi Seven - the seven sons of Ibn Saud's favourite wife Hassa al-Sudairi. His powerbase is the 57,000-strong US-trained National Guard and the backing of the influential tribes. His daunting task has been to salvage a US alliance damaged by the Sept 11, 2001, attacks carried out mainly by Saudi hijackers loyal to al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. At home, his biggest challenge came from militants waging deadly attacks to oust the House of Saud and force the kingdom, the cradle of Islam, to sever links with the "infidel" West.
As with many of the Arab world's elderly rulers, concerns over King Fahd's health surface occasionally, most recently last month. According to diplomats the origin of the rumour was that the 82-year king, who only appears in public on doctor's advice, was not seen at last month's official haj rituals. Diplomats say despite fresh rumours there is no evidence suggesting an aggravation of King Fahd's health. Under the informal rules of succession, the new king will also choose a third brother in line. The choice, diplomats say, would likely be between Prince Nayef, 72 and current interior minister and Prince Salman, 69, who is governor of Riyadh. "All indications point to Salman but politics does not always work on a rational basis," one diplomat said. "Salman is more popular than Nayef and could be third in the troika. He has charisma and a statesman's style. Nayef is structurally more powerful since he is the interior minister but is regarded as more of a hardliner," he added. Reformists, analysts and diplomats play down hopes that once on the throne Abdullah will push through bold reforms that he has not pursued as de facto leader. "Prince Abdullah is popular but it will be a troika rule ... King or no king his policy will be the same - slow and steady and no great deal of change," one diplomat said.