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| Iraq-Jordan |
| Islamists do well in preliminary results in Shiite areas |
| 2005-02-04 |
| Preliminary election returns released Thursday by Iraqi authorities showed that 72 percent of the 1.6 million votes counted so far from Sunday's election went to an alliance of Shiite parties dominated by religious groups with strong links to Iran. Only 18 percent went to a group led by Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite who favors strong ties to the United States. Few votes went to Sunni candidates. Although the early votes were drawn only from Baghdad and from five southern provinces where the Shiite parties were expected to score strongly, and from only 10 percent of the 5,216 polling stations, the scale of the vote for both religious and secular Shiites underscored the probability of a crushing triumph and a historic shift from decades of Sunni minority rule in Iraq. The scale of the lead held by the Shiites and the possibility of their coalition with the Kurds seemed certain to cause anxiety among Sunnis, who largely boycotted the election and remain deeply suspicious of the emerging Shiite dominance. But signs also emerged on Thursday that some Sunni leaders were ready to involve themselves at least in a limited way in the political debate. The leaders of 13 mostly Sunni political parties that stayed out of the election had agreed Monday that they would take part in writing the constitution, the next step in the establishment of a new Iraqi state. Election officials emphasized that the results were preliminary, and pleaded for caution in extrapolating from them. They noted that there were no returns from the Sunni heartland and that the returns were primarily from Shiite neighborhoods of Baghdad. And in a turnabout, the officials said they would not announce a figure for the overall voter turnout until all votes were tabulated next week. |
| Posted by:Paul Moloney |
| #17 Rooting around I came found this vote so far : I combined the partial inside Iraq results with the expatriate results and found this: Per IOCV 265148 people voted outside Iraq. New accounts give only who number %ages of that vote : Sistani 36% Kurd 30% and Allawi 9%. Inside Iraq wirh no Kurdish provinces, and 3300000 votes counted : Sistani 67%, Allawi 17% "independendent Cadres" (?) 1.3% Commies, Islamic Radicals, and al-Yawer List 1% each. No reports on Kurd vote inside Iraq yet. This would give a popular vote of about : Sistani 2.3m Allawi 520k Kurds 80k (all outside Iraq) "Independent Cadres" 43k Commies 30k al-Yawer 30k Others 550k Meaningless until some Kurd Provinces are heard from... |
| Posted by: BigEd 2005-02-04 5:17:37 PM |
| #16 Wouldn't surprise me, actually. The Shiites are grateful that we got rid of Saddam for them. But they have their own agenda, which isn't necessarily our agenda. This is why I believe we will need to make sure that non-Shiites are represented in the government - to rein in the Shiites. The alternative is partition, which I have no real issues with. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2005-02-04 12:43:14 PM |
| #15 Everyone knew from the get go that the Islamists Party of Sistani was going to be the big winner. Also we know that Sistani has demonstrated a willingness to support a Democracy and not a Theocracy. He was living in Iran and I am sure he has learned from their mistakes. I could be wrong, but I heard that most Shia do not want to emulate Iran. A recent poll showed that most want a goverment modeled after the UAE. The UAE is considered very moderate even liberal by arab standards. The Federal Goverment style would be a nice fit into ethnic division that is Iraq. |
| Posted by: Cyber Sarge 2005-02-04 12:40:30 PM |
| #14 The main this this election did was select the group that will create the permanent constitution. If three provinces fail to ratify the constitution, it doesn't fly. Let the shi'ites do whatever they want. If they can't swing the deal with the Sunni and the Kurds to establish a constitution, they become an appendage of Iran, the Sunni go to Syria and Kurdistan gets an outlet to the sea through northern Syria. That alternative is ugly enought to the Shia that they will have to make a deal that goes down well for the Sunni and Kurds. And if they're too dumb to do that, I don't find the alternative all that unappealing. Kurdistan just becomes our mole instead of Iraq. |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2005-02-04 11:43:42 AM |
| #13 More MSM bullshit. Extrapolating from heavily shi'a districts only and then screaming about a win for Iran and a loss for Bush is like projecting a massive Kerry landslide based on early returns from Vermont and Massachusetts. |
| Posted by: lex 2005-02-04 11:33:57 AM |
| #12 Whatever happened to the reports that the leading Shia party had signed on to a Islamic style secular government with no clerics? I never understood that to mean that no clerics would run for the Constitutional assembly or that islamic law wouldnt be enforced in the country by the government but there seemed to be some rumors that the Shia were open to the idea of religious equality and once the government was formed having no clerics be also elected officials in that Govmt. This has disappeared or are we just not hearing about from the MSM trying to scare us? I think the jury is out on the ol wizard BTW. Sure he's playing power games but he's smart and he seems to have some sense in that he recognizes what is good for Iraq to some extent. He may not be our man entirely but I don't expect him to be. I also have a hunch that he is not interested in a mullahocracy with him on top. He seems smarter than that and he has to have seen and be aware of how the mullahs across the way have failed. I'm not ready to write him off yet. He's laregly responsible for getting out the Shia vote and so therefore he is the force behind Iraq's first steps to some political maturity. |
| Posted by: peggy 2005-02-04 11:11:17 AM |
| #11 We dont know which areas, WITHIN these provinces these returns represent. I wouldnt make to many judgements yet. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2005-02-04 9:49:50 AM |
| #10 I'm suprized. |
| Posted by: gromgorru 2005-02-04 8:25:54 AM |
| #9 Er, the usually invaluable Paul Moloney gave this one the rather, uh, (needlessly) provocative title. The article itself is pretty innocuous. So Sistani's list won. We all knew it would happen. Word beforehand was that they'd weeded out most of the actual dangerous folk, while keeping the dangerous groups still nominally represented. Maybe, maybe not. Chalabi's back. All sorts of stuff going on. Too much uncertainty to start hyperventilating already. Incidentally, it's fortunate the ballots weren't counted on election day, since this "Islamist takeover" spin would undoubtedly have been all over the MSM in their attempt to crap on liberty's parade. |
| Posted by: someone 2005-02-04 4:03:09 AM |
| #8 |
| Posted by: .com 2005-02-04 2:54:47 AM |
| #7 phil_b - Here's another on a large scale... think Looking at this map, I can't help but conclude that Sykes and Picot were puffing some primo hash... |
| Posted by: .com 2005-02-04 2:41:01 AM |
| #6 The MSM's going crazy trying to come up with yet another discredit-Bush meme,.. Seems to me the NYT is trying extra hard... |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2005-02-04 2:10:17 AM |
| #5 The Kurds will be delighted to take any opportunity to split (The Turks are already major frothing at the thought - see Turkish news sites). The open question is what happens to the Sunni areas in the middle. My guess is Shiites will take a slice on the southern side, the Kurds will take a bigger slice on the Northern side. See here for Kurdish historic claims. Leaving a rump Sunni area mostly desert and no oil that possibly may join Jordan. A satisfactory outcome as far as I am concerned. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2005-02-04 2:09:02 AM |
| #4 Good advice, RbR... Maybe it will turn out dandy. Maybe it won't. We'll see. Regardless, I hope the Kurds are eventually unshackled from the Iraqi Arabs. They deserve better. |
| Posted by: .com 2005-02-04 1:12:33 AM |
| #3 Before everyone panics (like I did when I first saw this on the topic list), note the source of this article. The MSM's going crazy trying to come up with yet another discredit-Bush meme, and for now "run for your lives, the Islamist theocrats are a-comin'" will do just fine. |
| Posted by: Ricky bin Ricardo (Abu Babaloo) 2005-02-04 1:09:32 AM |
| #2 Hey, you'll get no argument from me - I've never trusted the freak. Talk to Lh and lex - they seemed to think he is a positive. Maybe, in the end, they'll be right... but I do remember he killed the first draft constitution because it stipulated a secular govt and has never been particularly helpful in anything, except when he bopped off to London so the Jarines and 1st Air Cav (?) could stomp Sadr in Najaf. In the Shi'a corner, I think the notion that the Iraqi Arabs will take direction from Iranian Persians is bullshit, I figure it will be their own gig, whatever form it takes. The shrine biz is what differentiates the turbans from the little people in Iraq. They make serious money from pilgrims and play the scholar role, emphasizing the importance of the religious game to propagate their power. Islam's a power scam. If they take over the Govt, too, well it's Iran, again. The poor Iraqi Shi'a will be screwed. Same old wine, new bottle, new label, methinks. And yep, the Kurds will split - and they should. The Sunnis? Mebbe they'll become the new dimwit "Palestinians" of the M.E. They've earned whatever happens to them - in spades. We shall see if Sistani & Co are just a new flavor of Khomeini & Co - or if they give a shit about their followers. |
| Posted by: .com 2005-02-04 1:08:36 AM |
| #1 If Sistani and his merry men try to set up a mullocracy like Iran, it will split the country into pieces. The Kurds won't tale this crap. This election and the setting up of a constitutional government is a one-time opportunity for Iraq to work through the spirit of horse-trading and compromise. The Iraqi people better not blow it. I have a bad feeling about Sistani. He will bide his time, then he will try to consolidate power and lay his trip on everyone and then there will be civil war. Am I overworried or what? |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2005-02-04 12:53:26 AM |
