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| Iraq-Jordan |
| Debka predicts Iraqi election results |
| 2005-01-28 |
| Despite the Iraqi Sunni boycott, al-Zarqawi's imprecations against the general election, and the unprecedented level of bloodletting, an certain number of the 40,000 polling stations across the country will almost certainly open on time Sunday, January 30. That was one of the starting points on which Gregory Hooker, chief analyst of CENTCOM, the American command running the war in Iraq, presupposed his detailed forecast of election results. This forecast, commissioned by CENTOM commander General John Abizaid, was first revealed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 190 on January 21. The second premise was that orderly vote-counting would likewise take place notwithstanding threats of sabotage. The Hooker forecast is essentially a simulation exercise based on US and Iraqi intelligence data gathered in the last six months, together with estimates of opinion openly canvassed in towns up and down the country. The level of participation and the results of this pivotal election will bear strongly on the Bush administration's second term Iraq policy, the tasks facing US armed forces, the chances of the elected national assembly taking up its responsibilities, including the drafting of a new national constitution, and the prospects of an elected government exercising authority. Altogether 111 political entities — parties, individuals or coalitions — are running for the 275 National Assembly seats. • A total of 7,785 candidates are registered on the national ballot • Eligible voters in Iraq: 14.27 million • Eligible voters outside Iraq: 1.2 — 2 million (only one-quarter of whom registered). • More than 130 lists were submitted by the December 15, 2004 deadline for registration. Nine were multi-party coalition blocs while 102 were lists presented by single Iraqi parties. • There are two major political blocs — Shiite and Kurdish: The Shiite Unified Iraqi Alliance list submitted 228 candidates representing 16 Iraqi political groups including the dominant Shiite factions. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq — SCIRI, heads this list, followed by Ibrahim Al-Jafari, head of the al-Dawa Party. • The two Kurdish parties headed by Masoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani decided to run together on the Kurdish list. • Both the Iraqi interim prime minister Iyad Allawi and Iraqi president Ghazi al-Yawar submitted their own lists of candidates. Allawi's party, the Iraqi National Accord — INC, submitted a 240-candidate coalition, while al-Yawar leads an 80-member slate representing the Iraqi Grouping. Projected Results For elections held now, Hooker projects the following figures: The Shiite Unified Iraqi Alliance list — 43.8% = 120 national assembly seats. The Kurdish list — a surprising 36.4% (more than twice their 16-18% proportion of the general population) = 100 seats. The Iraqi National Accord — 8.1% = 22 seats. (A formula is being actively sought to retain him as premier even if his showing is low.) The Iraqi Communist party (the best organized) — 1.6% = 5 seats. All the Assyrian, Turkomen and Yazdi minorities together — 4 seats. All the rest — 5 seats. The first conclusion reached by our analysts is that, while the leading Shiite UIA bloc can expect to be the big winner of the election, the real victor will be the Shiite cleric who assembled and founded the alliance, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and his inner circle. The slate he drew up of candidates to the legislature reflects his political aspirations and cunning: of the 120 registered, the first 60 are independents with no parties behind them and will therefore be totally dependent on Sistani himself for support. Al-Hakim's SCIRI will get no more than 14 assembly seats, while al-Jafari's al Dawa must be content with 12. The former rebel cleric Moqtada Sadr's following will match al Dawa with 12 places in the legislature. The slate he assembled also pushes pro-Tehran and Iran's chosen men down to the unrealistic bottom. Sistani wants to see non-clerical ministers in the post-election government but will insist on incorporating Islamic law as the basis of the national constitution. The Kurds owe their projected big win to three prime causes: 1. The union of the two principal lists, which will help them carry districts in which each faction is fragmentary, like Iraq's second largest town of Mosul and certain quarters of Baghdad. 2. Major concessions by Sistani in Kirkuk, where he endorsed the transfer of tens of thousands of Kurdish voters into the city. Quietly underway at this moment is the largest demographic transformation in Iraq since the war began, an abrupt reversal of the population displacement conducted by Saddam Hussein. Sunni families are being pushed out of Kirkuk to the Sunni Triangle and replaced by incoming Kurds. Turkomen, Assyrians and Yazdis gnash their teeth but have not the power to interfere in the Kurdish takeover of the mixed city. 3. Another key Sistani concession was his consent to local elections taking place in Kurdish regions for a Kurdish national assembly at the same time as the general election. In return, the Kurdish leaders have granted Sistani a powerful tool of government, a promise to join his Unified Iraqi Bloc in a coalition administration. The Shiite cleric has little to fear from this alliance. He knows the Kurds are only interested in expanding their own self-government and will therefore not muscle in on the central administration with power-sharing demands. Their backing, however, provides insurance for stable Shiite-dominated government in the long term. The Sunni Muslim minority can hardly be expected to sit still as the Shiites and Kurds split up the post-war spoils of power. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #27 If a larger percentage of the Iraqi electorate vote - how will the MSM spin it? It will somehow turn into a Sunni tragedy story. Never mind the relative peaceful 80% of the country that were suppressed by the Sunnis for the past three decades finally get to participate in democratic election - lets pay attention to the people that hate Bush. Hating Bush is the true story for the MSM. BTW - Ted Kennedy is an idiot. |
| Posted by: JP 2005-01-28 9:00:14 PM |
| #26 actually latest poll I saw says Iraqi Communist Party will not do all that well. But theyre actually rather moderate - they are firmly supportive of democracy and elections, and very opposed to the insurgency. They are also firmly secularist and moderately socialist. They apparently learned quite a bit in their years of persecution by Saddam. Iraq could do far worse than them. They have already had a minister in the Allawi govt, and he served responsibly, IIUC. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2005-01-28 5:31:21 PM |
| #25 I expect the Iraqi communist party to do much better than suggested above. I hope you are wrong. lh. Well it didn't take long for one bad element to rear its evil head once the lid's come off the garbage can. The Communist Party is evidently the oldest party in Iraq, which I had not realized until today. Saddam forced the party to go under ground while he was in power.The Communist Party's slogan is:"A free country and a happy people." It makes me want to throw up. And I thought there was a danger posed by a Shiite theocracy - ha, ha -communism, just what Iraq needs in its government -like a cancer on the body politic. The communists have 275 candidates on its slate with over 90 being women. Sad. http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200412/s1263114.htm |
| Posted by: 2xstandard 2005-01-28 5:08:40 PM |
| #24 11A5S - One son starting working at a Frys. His main complaint? "Dad, most of these guys are really stupid." Me ... "Son, most people are stupid... deal with it. Oh, and, by the way, most are earning more than you are." I will wait a few days before teasing him again. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2005-01-28 4:44:52 PM |
| #23 I think that I tried buying some memory from #2 at Fry's. |
| Posted by: 11A5S 2005-01-28 4:15:49 PM |
| #22 has murat been hitting the hookah extra hard today? |
| Posted by: Jarhead 2005-01-28 3:38:38 PM |
| #21 You blog paraplegics morons what is the need to.. Your POST is pathetic. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2005-01-28 1:48:36 PM |
| #20 chuck - kinda silly of them, dont you think? IIUC the IRaqis will be using paper ballots, which will take awhile to count. Also, IIUC, the counting will be done centrally, not at each polling place and being called in, like is done here. There really WONT be any returns for several days, and I would consider exit polls (yes, I know you were joking) worthless here. At most theyll be able to report turnout. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2005-01-28 1:12:59 PM |
| #19 Oh, wow. Look's like #2's just graduated from the English As An Eighteenth Language program. Musta needed it to get his ISF electrician's union card. |
| Posted by: tu3031 2005-01-28 11:47:27 AM |
| #18 Did you see that all three American TV news anchors have gone to Iraq for the elections? As reported on CBS last night, exit polling will show that John Kerry will win by an overwhelming majority. |
| Posted by: Chuck Simmins 2005-01-28 11:39:23 AM |
| #17 Tibor: This guy makes mucky seem like Shakespeare. Dude, mucky *is* Shakespeare. I always click on mucky's postings because his pronouncements are as cryptic as Greenspan's, but more fun to read. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2005-01-28 11:34:36 AM |
| #16 Um, YSIP, what is my pro I? And what do you mean by well info? Ah, forget it. Dawn take you and be stone to you. |
| Posted by: Korora 2005-01-28 10:56:22 AM |
| #15 Don't annoy the pathetic, kid. Go somewheres else. |
| Posted by: mojo 2005-01-28 10:50:28 AM |
| #14 All your blog are belong to us! |
| Posted by: Dar 2005-01-28 10:37:14 AM |
| #13 LOL @ #2 You get my nomination for Anti-Poet Laureate 2005 . Before you post , learn to spell . |
| Posted by: MacNails 2005-01-28 10:34:34 AM |
| #12 This guy makes mucky seem like Shakespeare. |
| Posted by: Tibor 2005-01-28 10:25:59 AM |
| #11 "You blog paraplegics morons" I love it. I can see the headlines now. "MSM KILLED BY BLOG PARAPLEGICS" |
| Posted by: Poison Reverse 2005-01-28 10:01:55 AM |
| #10 The union of the two principal lists, which will help them carry districts in which each faction is fragmentary, like Iraq’s second largest town of Mosul and certain quarters of Baghdad. But the national election is NOT by district, its nationwide proportional representation. 2. Major concessions by Sistani in Kirkuk, where he endorsed the transfer of tens of thousands of Kurdish voters into the city. Quietly underway at this moment is the largest demographic transformation in Iraq since the war began, an abrupt reversal of the population displacement conducted by Saddam Hussein. Sunni families are being pushed out of Kirkuk to the Sunni Triangle and replaced by incoming Kurds. Turkomen, Assyrians and Yazdis gnash their teeth but have not the power to interfere in the Kurdish takeover of the mixed city. Transfering Kurdish votes to Kirkuk will impact local council outcome there - doesnt effect national result, since the same voters are just shifted around. 3. Another key Sistani concession was his consent to local elections taking place in Kurdish regions for a Kurdish national assembly at the same time as the general election. In return, the Kurdish leaders have granted Sistani a powerful tool of government, a promise to join his Unified Iraqi Bloc Yes, thats a big concession, but does NOTHING to explain the national outcome. Take this with even more salt than usual. While its possible many non-Kurds will vote for the Kurdish parties, id be very surprised if they do that well. OTOH, I expect the Iraqi communist party to do much better than suggested above. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2005-01-28 9:55:12 AM |
| #9 Target aquired. Proton torpedos locked on. Standing by....... |
| Posted by: Steve 2005-01-28 8:54:24 AM |
| #8 I am Engalish speak! 2 days Aligers! ISF is OWG! |
| Posted by: Manuel 2005-01-28 8:25:24 AM |
| #7 and it sounds like you drank the whole case of vodka your russian relative sent you. |
| Posted by: Jarhead 2005-01-28 8:23:45 AM |
| #6 "You blog paraplegics morons" I think I am be-ink insalted hear. |
| Posted by: TomAnon 2005-01-28 8:02:16 AM |
| #5 #2- now with new Izra superioty!! Mike |
| Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2005-01-28 7:33:08 AM |
| #4 ..i guess he *arted as he was publishing? |
| Posted by: PePe La Phew 2005-01-28 5:25:36 AM |
| #3 *snicker* |
| Posted by: .com 2005-01-28 5:02:22 AM |
| #2 You blog paraplegics morons what is the need to mention debka as a sorce of information? Is your pro I, have a Russian relative just emmigrated to Izra or your, I belive in the superioty of well info by a retired ISF electrician. Your site is PATHETIC >>>>>FRED> |
| Posted by: YOUUOR SITE IS PATHETIC 2005-01-28 4:01:49 AM |
| #1 If the Sunnis do Boycott, they deserve what they are going to get. But then again pay back is a bitch and I can not think of a better bunch of assholes to get force fed revenge than the Iraqi Sunnis.. |
| Posted by: Long Hair Republican 2005-01-28 2:15:36 AM |