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China-Japan-Koreas
Calculating Chinese Capabilities
2005-01-27
I never underestimate the capabilities of the calculating Chinese...
January 27, 2005: Department of Defense intelligence analysts are having a hard time figuring out when China thinks it will be ready to make a grab for Taiwan. The recent surge in the construction of short range amphibious ships, and constant movement of more ballistic missiles to within range of Taiwan, indicate something may happen sooner rather than later. Taiwan is only 300 kilometers from China. There are about 600 DF-15 missiles (with a range of 600 kilometers) aimed at Taiwan now, and by next year, there may be 800. Moreover, it is suspected that these missiles, and their half ton warheads, are being equipped with precise GPS navigation systems. Such systems could cripple Taiwan's air force and air defenses. China has been training its marines and army troops for amphibious operations. Because of all this, it is believed that China would be ready to make a run at Taiwan by 2010. By then they would have several hundred modern warplanes, dozens of destroyers and submarines, bombers equipped with anti-ship missiles and a long standing declaration that they would regain control of Taiwan one way or the other.

But other analysts point out that China has always done poorly in the early stages of a war, and that their program to create a large force of professional troops, and modern equipment, will take longer. Only small portions of the Chinese armed forces are getting trained and equipped to Western standards. Over 90 percent of the Chinese military are beset by decades old equipment designs and corrupt or incompetent leaders. Only with highly trained and well equipped troops, would they have a chance against Taiwanese and American forces. To produce a large force like this would take another ten or twenty years, at least. In the meantime, the Taiwanese have noted the Chinese preparations, and have suddenly for modernization fever. Until recently, Taiwanese legislators were keen to cut their defense budget. No more.
Posted by:Steve

#11  300km is not like crossing the English Channel on D-Day. Conventional amphibious troop carriers would take a day or more, they would be sitting ducks. Night vision and radar makes this a 24hr sitting duckfest. As the saying goes, you cannot get there from here.
Posted by: john   2005-01-27 6:57:24 PM  

#10  USMC-Issue Rat
http://www.rightwingnews.com/archives/week_2005_01_16.PHP#003369
Posted by: mojo   2005-01-27 3:56:43 PM  

#9  Mines, lotsa mines, cheapest show stopper of 'em all.
Posted by: Shipman   2005-01-27 3:29:05 PM  

#8  Europe GPS Project
Posted by: Duke Nukem   2005-01-27 3:12:40 PM  

#7  Davis, so right. Moreover, the $200M Chinese investment in Europe's GPS project, >"US Could Shoot Down Euro GPS Satellites If Used By China In Wartime: Report."
Posted by: Duke Nukem   2005-01-27 3:11:53 PM  

#6  Loral's.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2005-01-27 2:30:57 PM  

#5  Moreover, it is suspected that these missiles, and their half ton warheads, are being equipped with precise GPS navigation systems.

Yeah? So....who's system are they using?
Posted by: Bomb-a-rama   2005-01-27 2:26:56 PM  

#4  LH, the U.S. wouldn't be threatening the exchange, the article states the Chinese would be initiating that threat. My contention is such a threat might be moot in 20 yrs due to our advancing technology. Or, are they really willing to threaten the exchange w/us over Taiwan either way?

Your right wrt amphib capability, boats is not enough. Amphib planning is the most tedious thing (according to many of our pubs) a modern mil can undertake. The USMC has some great books on amphib planning that the hard core buff may like but pretty dry for anyone else. The biggest problem imho is coordination of fires, maneuver, air assets that can give you vertical envelopment capabilities, and follow on logistics. Decent weather also helps. If they were planning an invasion of Taiwan we'd pick up on their troop movements and massings pretty quick. Not sure we'd cut them off in the straits but we could get there quicker then they'd like. Plus, whose to say that in 20yrs the chinese political/economic/socio situation may have changed and this is no longer a viable goal for them.
Posted by: Jarhead   2005-01-27 1:36:01 PM  

#3  glen - theyd ride for a long time on the glory from the military win. Theyd let the next gen of chicoms worry about legitimacy with the Taiwan issue gone. I mean when youre a system fundamentally in decline, why worry about the long term if you can buy 10 or 15 years?

JH - I cant see the US threatening a nuke exchange over Taiwan.

Ive always assumed theyd be repelled, and that a blockade against Taiwan would be the optimal strategy. Amphib makes sense if they think they have to win fast, before a US counterblockade begins to hurt. Still pretty hard to pull off, I think, even with them finally getting some amphib capability - and of course theres a lot more to amphib capability than just getting the boats, right JH? Not too many modern militaries have managed an opposed amphib landing - its not easy, IIUC.

I suspect building up capabilities is more important as part of the dance of threats with Taiwan. I mean if its 90% sure the Chicoms will fail, and youre a Taiwan leader, do you really take the chance they'll succeed for some symbolic jesture towards independence?
Posted by: liberalhawk   2005-01-27 1:17:51 PM  

#2  More like, what happens when they are repelled into the sea? They'd be crazy to threaten a nuke exchange w/us. Within 20 yrs we may have a fully functioning anti-missile defense sheild. If they were to somehow take Taiwan I believe it would be a very pyric victory.
Posted by: Jarhead   2005-01-27 1:04:18 PM  

#1  What happens after the ChiComs take Taiwan? Then they won't have that issue to blame for their governmental shortcomings?
Posted by: glenmore   2005-01-27 12:41:14 PM  

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