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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Big Russian mistake |
| 2005-01-23 |
| Posted by:gromgorru |
| #8 I'll bet that Putin is ousted within six months of the next 25%+ decline in oil prices. Maybe by mid-2007 (these crashes always seem to happen in August). |
| Posted by: lex 2005-01-23 11:54:02 PM |
| #7 beware of going on the mat with an opponent who is less skilled or weaker than you. Hurray! I just knew my several virginally white belts would come in handy some day. ;-P Seriously, rkb, you raise good points. Wild flailing makes Putin/Russia's recent moves understandable to me, coupled with lex's analysis. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2005-01-23 11:49:50 PM |
| #6 The obvious conclusion from the events of the past ten months (YUKOS, Beslan, Ukraine) is that Putin's not really in charge. No politician with any handle on reality would have compiled such a miserable string of disasters. Screwing the pensioners in the midst of an oil and commodities bonanza shows an especially nice touch. The Russian people are desperate for political stability and a firm hand to cleanse the state of corruption, and Putin is giving them instability and still more corruption. He can't be that stupid. A more likely explanation is that Putin isn't calling the shots; it's the forces behind that bogus company that won the YUKOS "auction", ie FSB elements in league with mafiya groups, who are driving policy now. |
| Posted by: lex 2005-01-23 4:21:51 PM |
| #5 Futures market, anyone? I'll put odds on Putin's ouster as follows: by end of 2005: 20% by end of 2006: 40% by end of 2007: 70% |
| Posted by: lex 2005-01-23 4:15:34 PM |
| #4 Putin's own power base may be shaky. There are a lot of ex-Soviet generals who are unhappy about the peeling away of ex Soviet republics towards the US and the West more generally. Putin put a lot on the line in Kiev and lost - publicly (at least in the short run). His submarines are sinking, his economy is in really bad shape yet he and his people remember when they were a superpower. Not a good combination ... it tempts one to try to recover glory days quickly. There's an old principle I learned from my aikido sensei years ago: beware of going on the mat with an opponent who is less skilled or weaker than you. S/he will do unpredictable things that may get you very hurt. Weak opponents collapse or attack at unexpected and disadvantageous times and if we're not careful, we'll end up falling badly. That's one reason I worry about Putin and Russia right now. |
| Posted by: rkb 2005-01-23 4:11:38 PM |
| #3 Putin's showing yet again his miserable political judgment. Not to mention weakness: Russia doesn't gain any "clout" in the middle east by cozying up to a second-right ba'athist backwater like Boy Assad's regime. If he were making overtures to the Saudis and to Iran at teh same time, and showing some dexterity in doing so, then we could view this as part of an intelligent, well thought out strategy for restoring Russian influence with states that matter in the region. As it is, this is yet another clumsy effort by a ruler whose power in his own land is rapidly diminishing. I'll bet that Putin is pushed out of power before his current term ends. He's a witless puppet of the security forces. |
| Posted by: lex 2005-01-23 4:10:40 PM |
| #2 However, by pandering to regimes such as Assad's, not only will Putin not have restored Russia's clout, he will convince people that he has learned nothing from his Soviet predecessors' downfalls. Putin defends the indefensible. Why put time, effort, and resources into relationships with nutcase regimes like Syria and Iran? The only thing Iran offers is cash for building reactors. But a cash-rich MM govt poses a threat to Russia by exporting radical Islam. Putin needs to look at the big picture. When there are so many positive opportunities in dealing with the West and Japan, e.g., the energy sector, why hang out with losers? But now with the high levels of corruption in Russia, investors are being scared away. It's like Russia is a grown-up abused child acting out behaviors it grew up with. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2005-01-23 2:58:59 PM |
| #1 Despite Russian denials, the timing of this meeting adds greater suspicion. |
| Posted by: Captain America 2005-01-23 1:48:28 PM |