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"Here in Basra they are clearly blaming Sunni Iraqis, not foreign fighters, for the attacks... If that is the case, people say, there will be some kind of Shia reaction, and the calls for calm and no revenge attacks from Shia leaders will not hold."
- Shehab Ahmad, Journalist in Basra |
Fears of civil war in ethnically divided Iraq have again been voiced after the twin attacks on Shia cities Karbala and Najaf on Sunday. Tension is building in the run-up to the election at the end of January, because the vote is expected to be dominated by Shia leaders. The tactical thinking behind attacks on Shia Muslims by suspected Sunni militants is clear. The aim is to stir up and strengthen sectarian divisions, by provoking violent Shia reaction to attacks. The attackers hope to make Iraq ungovernable through a civil war along religious lines.
Engrained in the Wahhabi Sunni militancy that has emerged in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein, of which Jordanian Abu Musad al-Zarqawi is believed to be the leader, is a deep hatred of Shia Muslims. Less driven by religious hatred are the insurgents believed to be linked to the regime of Saddam Hussein. They have seen their traditional dominance of Iraqi politics evaporate, and the election can only set this in stone. They therefore see the undermining of the electoral process as in their interest. Violence and the lack of government control some in mainly Sunni areas, and the threat of attacks on polling stations, have raised fears of serious Sunni disenfranchisement in the 30 January election. ... |