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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Russian Expert Says Flu Epidemic May Kill Over One Billion This Year
2004-10-28
The world is on the brink of a major flu epidemic — one that could claim more than a billion lives, the head of the Russian Virology Institute, Academician Dmitry Lvov said at a press conference organized by the RIA-Novosti news agency on Thursday. "Up to one billion people could die around the whole world in six months," Lvov said. The expert did not give a timeframe for the epidemic, but said that it is highly probable that it will start this year. "We are half a step away from a worldwide pandemic catastrophe," the academic said.
The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic killed a estimated 50 million people. World is more crowded now, airlines fly everywhere overnight, and millions already have compromised immune systems due to HIV.
The Russian expert said that U.S. researchers possessed data suggesting that if a pandemic hits, up to 700,000 people will fall ill in the United States. He said that the population of the United States can be roughly compared to that of Russia and thus the number of cases will be approximately the same.
Our medical system would be pushed to the limit, but the death toll would not be as bad as 1918. Can't say the same for the third world.
The academician said the pandemic was most likely to be caused by the so-called bird flu stem. "The death rate among those who contract this type of flu reaches 70 percent," Lvov said.
Did ya know China has reported bird flu has jumped the animal-human species barrier?
The expert called for the Russian authorities to prepare for the epidemic. The country will need a reserve of at least 300,000 hospital beds if an epidemic breaks out, he said.
Posted by:Steve

#11  So will this cure Global Warming?
Posted by: tu3031   2004-10-28 10:55:02 PM  

#10  Kerry hasn't blamed this on Bush yet? What gives?
Posted by: Raj   2004-10-28 9:36:01 PM  

#9  He meant one billion chicken (à la Kiev).
Posted by: Kalle (kafir forever)   2004-10-28 6:59:15 PM  

#8  One billion - that would tend to take a good chunk out of China. If this spreads like SARS then we should start seeing problems in China and Southeast Asia real soon.

I for one do not dismiss the Spanish Flu as an idle curiousity. It would be a tremendous biological weapon, and maybe the Russians have such a weapon tucked away in their storehouse of nasties.
Posted by: Douglas De Bono   2004-10-28 6:05:44 PM  

#7  One billion, eh?
A curious number, just almost like the count of mooselimbs...

I have an idea... 'll be back.
Posted by: Conanista   2004-10-28 5:23:13 PM  

#6  A knew a man (born 1900) horribly traumitized by the Spanish flu. Among the people he knew, he estimated that between one and two dozen had died. It was unique that the most susceptible group was of otherwise healthy young men, an odd demographic, who had also been severely culled by WWI and, in Europe, by the still undiagnosed "Brain Fever" epidemic, that killed tens of thousands and left many survivors violent paranoids. When the Spanish flu ended, there was a mass effort to forget it, relegating many of the dead to "non-person" status, and it was forbidden as a topic of conversation. This man, in the 1980s, still had severe emotional trauma from it.
Today, quietly, the US government has been in an utter panic about influenza since the mid-1970s, with the expectation of a lethal pandemic at any time (we are very past due for one, which seem to come in a cyclic fashion). President Ford was advised that the Swine Flu was characteristic, and even though the CDC had carte blanche to produce and distribute vaccine, it was unable to do so in time. Fortunately, the Swine Flu mutated to a less-harmful strain just before its arrival in the US. Since President Clinton, the ability of the US pharmaceutical industry to produce vaccine has severely declined. For updated information about influenza, see FLUSTAR at flustar.com
Posted by: Anonymoose   2004-10-28 5:01:59 PM  

#5  I thought a lot of the deaths from the 1918 epidemic came from the fact that a LOT of soldiers were deployed in less-than-sanitary conditions, with less-than-adequate rations, and as a result had compromised immune systems.
Posted by: Phil Fraering   2004-10-28 4:58:28 PM  

#4  "The country will need a reserve of at least 300,000 hospital beds..."

Any guesses about what business enterprises Academician Lvov is into?
Posted by: Matt   2004-10-28 4:45:17 PM  

#3  "The expert called for the Russian authorities to prepare for the epidemic."

Good idea. Before the ground is frozen solid.
Posted by: .com   2004-10-28 3:55:36 PM  

#2  Didn't the Red Sox last win the WS in 1918? Hmm....
Posted by: Seafarious   2004-10-28 3:50:06 PM  

#1  I think I'll go wash my hands now.
Posted by: trailing wife   2004-10-28 3:48:16 PM  

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