The coming oil scare...from within.
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| Home Front: Economy |
| Oil slides again, dips below $52 |
| 2004-10-28 |
| Anticipation of slowing demand from China complements build in inventories to pressure prices again. Oil prices tumbled again Thursday as traders anticipated lower demand from economic powerhouse China on the heels of an unexpectedly large rise in U.S. crude inventories. U.S. light crude for December delivery dropped 74 cents at $51.74 a barrel in early trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest price in two weeks, extending the previous day's $2.71 slump. London Brent crude sank 95 cents to $48.50 a barrel after peaking at a new high of $51.95 Wednesday. Light crude reached an all-time high of $55.67 a barrel Monday. ... However, global demand might slow after the Chinese central bank lifted its interest rates for the first time in nine years in an effort to gently cool its red hot economy, Mueller noted. Oil is nothing if not voilatile. Interesting timing none the less. Be even more interesting to see how far down it goes. |
| Posted by:Mrs. Davis |
| #16 The coming oil scare...from within. |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-10-28 8:18:18 PM |
| #15 Seafarious. The al-Qa'ida monster the Arabian Wahhabi oil clan created will get hungry once again. If the enemy really wants to cause a world-wide economic panic, the removal of Saudi oil from the world market would do the trick overnight. See link on the largest oil field in the world, Arabia's Ghawar field, well within range of Iranian missles.... |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-10-28 6:32:27 PM |
| #14 True German Ally & .com, right on observations. They should be asking the question, is there an abundance of (cleaner) 'light sweet crude oil', the type Nigeria produces. We in here know the answer ,,it is a resounding no! Here is a quote: "Oil shortage or surplus? Ask shortage of what oil? Many refineries are not set up to process abundant heavy crude oil because it is more difficult, expensive to refine into products." http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=11417 In relation to a few days of oil trading trending up or down, when prices have either hit rock bottom or have attained dizzying record highs. The old standard rule is what rockets up plunges down and the reversal. Market charting gravity. In addition, the root supply causes of the energy complex' dramatic climb are still with us. Will the world's most booming economy, Communist China, begin to cool off some, due to higher imported energy costs? If so, to what degeee? |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-10-28 6:23:00 PM |
| #13 Well, I know how to model peripheral flooding and banking (sand, not money, heh) and top-drive rigs and the effects of the ultimate heat-sink (the ocean in offshore drilling) on the caking of hot muds in the return annulus - but I don't know dick about the markets, heh. Went right over my pointy little head, bro. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-10-28 6:06:51 PM |
| #12 I'm guessing the True Believers chasing the Infidel engineers out of SA doesn't help with the oil prospects either... |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2004-10-28 6:06:46 PM |
| #11 A little lighter on the call side, on paper, but not on the put side ;) Hop on to the petrol-roller-coaster. .com A friend England, with vastly superior knowledge than I & most others, timed this ongoing oil reversal so, so perfectly at the beginning of this week, that by tomorrow he shall most likely reach his downside target. Check out the linked news. The best expertise during the last couple of weeks has been & shall be geared in the currencies, What a ride it's been...thus far. Your comment on the oil being lifeblood of the world is so true. Maybe soon you too can test the waters so to speak. Winter as yet to knock at the door.  The Hub is once again the center of the universe! :) |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-10-28 6:01:28 PM |
| #10 TGA - The stories about the 6 main fields declining are true. Not alarmingly precipitous, but it's there, alright - I know this from the engineers who manage the operations planning for their refineries. As for new finds, I'll bet Mark knows more than I do. I wonder about that - because they have largely shifted focus to their natural gas finds. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-10-28 5:56:59 PM |
| #9 I should clarify the 40$ mark. Oil might drop below that but not for long. The 30$ is history. |
| Posted by: True German Ally 2004-10-28 5:51:53 PM |
| #8 The current high prices are certainly partly caused by a speculation bubble but the fundamentals speak against oil ever returning to under 40$, let alone under 30$ a barrel. Unless demand drops significantly (unlikely, even if China cools down a lot) or significant new ressources are found and exploited (possible but not in the near future) oil will stay up. The real trouble will start when we learn about the true figures concerning the Saudi reserves... How much oil do they really have? |
| Posted by: True German Ally 2004-10-28 5:49:27 PM |
| #7 For the last 80+ years, oil has been the NO-SHIT lifeblood of the world. It paid my bills for the last 30 years - and all I did was write software - a mere voyeur in the game. What, exactly, is the problem with Mark having bona-fide oil market expertise, lex? |
| Posted by: .com 2004-10-28 5:28:35 PM |
| #6 a bit lighter these days, Mark? |
| Posted by: lex 2004-10-28 5:20:18 PM |
| #5 What soars so quickly on speculation can not be sustained unless the underlining causes continue. 'Profit taking Friday' could extend the bearishness. This is a classic example of energy profit taking prior to the next storm. |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-10-28 5:16:25 PM |
| #4 Volatility, Mrs D? Check this out for oil volatility history. |
| Posted by: Tom 2004-10-28 2:57:14 PM |
| #3 Maybe Soros is running out of money to game oil derivatives. Also, note that another famous billionaire-against-Bush, Warren Buffet, has followed Soros' game-book and been betting billions against the dollar since early this year. |
| Posted by: Kalle (kafir forever) 2004-10-28 2:40:12 PM |
| #2 Just mention the word "fears" along with "supply concerns" and watch the price shoot back up. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2004-10-28 2:33:00 PM |
| #1 John F'ing Kerry : C'mon, baby, STAY UP, STAY UP! |
| Posted by: BigEd 2004-10-28 1:48:01 PM |