By reinventing himself as Osama bin Laden's top man in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is seeking to humiliate President Bush, exploit al Qaeda's militant "brand" and win more recruits for the Iraqi insurgency. In a change of tack this month, he first declared allegiance to bin Laden and then, in an Internet statement Saturday, renamed his movement as the Iraqi arm of al Qaeda. Security analysts said that while ostensibly pledging subservience and submitting his group to a "takeover," Zarqawi was taking on the mantle of al Qaeda's most active commander in order to boost his profile and rally support. | And since he hasn't seen Binny lately either, it positions him as heir apparent. (yes, yes, I know.."He's not a saudi, can't be in charge unless you're one of the master race!" As I've said before, maybe he has other ideas.) |
Singapore-based analyst Rohan Gunaratna said the Jordanian militant was seeking to exert authority over al Qaeda cells whose links with bin Laden had been severed since the United States launched its "war on terror." "He wants to be the de facto operational leader of al Qaeda. That is why he pledged allegiance to Osama, and now he wants to take control of the al Qaeda cells that are located worldwide," said Gunaratna, author of "Inside al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror." Iraqi analyst Mustafa Alani at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai said that while placing himself under bin Laden's authority, Zarqawi would still enjoy effective autonomy. "Al Qaeda as a headquarters and a nerve system is no longer functioning, so he knows bin Laden will not be able to boss him around," Alani said. | Perhaps he suspects Binny ain't functioning either? |
He said that by turning his own campaign into part of al Qaeda's struggle, Zarqawi could hope to recruit more bin Laden supporters from outside Iraq to join the insurgency. These could include militants from countries like Saudi Arabia where the opportunities for al Qaeda attacks appear to have diminished recently as the authorities have clamped down. | Well, clamped down on domestic attacks. We've suspected they are trying to go back to export mode. |
"There are a lot of mujahideen who are hesitating to join the fight in Iraq -- they don't know whether it's part of al Qaeda or not. Now they have a new base in Iraq ... I think this will encourage more people to join," Alani said. But many security analysts questioned such assertions and saw Zarqawi until now as an independent actor, which is why they see his declared shift of allegiance as significant. Alani said Saturday's Web statement, 10 days before the U.S. presidential election and several months before planned elections in Iraq, was partly designed to influence American public opinion. Zarqawi "hopes to influence the American election and to show that Mr. Bush was a failure -- a failure in Iraq, a failure in fighting al Qaeda and a failure in preventing al Qaeda from establishing in Iraq," he said. David Claridge, managing director of Janusian Security Risk Management which has clients in Iraq, said the intended message was that the United States was fighting the same enemy on all fronts, and losing. "It's about trying, in the public's eye, to give the impression that al Qaeda is building deep roots in Iraq," he said. "The more they can present to the wider world the message that the U.S. is fighting al Qaeda and it's losing, the more political impact that has." |