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| Axis of Evil |
| Russia plans coup against Saddam |
| 2002-11-11 |
| Daily Times (Pakistan) and IslamOnline Russia is said to be working in tandem with some Iraqi generals to oust President Saddam Hussein, as it believes that if the Iraqi leader stays in power, the US will launch an invasion of the country, which could destabilise the entire region and make the Muslim masses everywhere rise in protest. The Russian intelligence services are believed to be active in pursuit of this objective, namely the removal of Saddam Hussein in a coup. According to sources, Russian President Vladimir Putin has discussed the matter with US President George W Bush. I guess Putin suggested giving doing it on the cheap a try. Likely somebody will end up hanging on a meat hook — whether this is a true report or not. Can't afford to take any chances, y'know. Heh heh... However, there are two problems with this scenario. First, the only Iraqi leaders powerful enough to oust Hussein are his own relatives, they being the only generals Saddam trusts. The US would not accept a regime in Baghdad that keeps members of the Hussein family in power. The successor, on the other hand, could be dislodged much more cheaply, couldn't he? Secondly, Moscow wants to ensure that the future regime in Baghdad will remain pro-Russia. According to Stratfor, a strategic news and analysis service, so far Putin’s pro-Western strategy has yielded few dividends from Washington. To secure the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Moscow gathered and shared crucial intelligence with US commanders and was influential in securing the cooperation of the Northern Alliance with US forces. It even contributed troops, which suffered casualties in the fighting but there has been little appreciation by Washington of Russia’s contribution. I'd say that's simply not a true statement. Though I would like to see a more definite statement of opposition to the Chechen thugs, and I'm sure Putin would, too... Moscow has no guarantees that Washington will safeguard Russia’s interests in Iraq once Saddam Hussein is out of power. Moreover, Putin fears that Bush will not look kindly on a Russian-organised coup in Baghdad, perceiving it as an attempt to steal a US victory. If Iraqi generals backed by Moscow succeed in replacing Hussein with one of his relatives, that alone would not eliminate the likelihood of a US attack. Nope. Not at all. But it would be an indication of really close cooperation between the two. The Russers have the successor to the KGB, which, for all its ruthlessness, was damned effective in the area of operations like this. It's also not hamstrung by congressional resolutions and tight oversight, like the CIA is. It would make a good proxy in a specialized situation like this, and sharing out the spoils of Iraq isn't as complicated as some would like to make it out. |
| Posted by:Fred Pruitt |
| #4 The ruskies have three good reasons: Any puppet government they set up will pay them money owed. Secondly, that government would honor contracts Hussein signed in a desperate bid to buy a UN Security Council Veto that never came. Thirdly, the ruskies have to keep control of the Iraqi Oil wells out of US hands. Otherwise, the US would pump up production, smash OPEC, and drag the price of oil down so low, the Ruskies couldn't make money on their oil (which is paid for in hard currency). |
| Posted by: Ptah 2002-11-11 11:50:39 |
| #3 If I were an Iraqi general(and thank God I'm not),it would make more sense for me to wait for the Americans rather than risk my life and health.Plus Saddam probably has their families as collateral somewhere. |
| Posted by: El Id 2002-11-11 11:16:50 |
| #2 Well, the key difference from Kosovo is that this time (if one can believe the source - I'd double- or triple-check anything from a source like ummahnews.com), the Russians are consulting the US on what they're considering. Truthfully, I've heard a lot of worse ideas in my time than turning the KGB's successor loose on Saddam. As Ptah noted, the Russians have several good reasons to want Saddam out, all of which, in the end, come down to economics (just as the French have good reasons to want to maintain Saddam, all of which come down to economics). All in all, I'm just a bit more sympathetic to the Russian desire to keep oil prices at a level where they can make some money than I am to the French desire to keep selling Iraq assorted implements of destruction... |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2002-11-11 18:47:54 |
| #1 Didn't they try something close to this in Kosovo when they commandeered the airbase under Nato's nose and that wrinkled British general didn't want to start WW3 over it. It wouldn't surprise me if the Ruskies try to pre-empt our bad medicine routine with a "patient is cured" strategy. |
| Posted by: Jack 2002-11-11 09:40:16 |