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| Negative Bounce for Kerry says Gallup/USA/CNN poll |
| 2004-08-01 |
| EFL Posted 8/1/2004 1:20 PM Updated 8/1/2004 1:30 PM Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention By Susan Page, USA TODAY WASHINGTON — The Democratic National Convention boosted voters' perceptions of John Kerry's leadership on critical issues, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds. But it failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against President Bush. In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards trailed the Republican ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney 50% to 46% among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%. Before the convention, the two were essentially tied, with Kerry at 47%, Bush at 46%. Frankly, unstable results like this are usually a sign of a discontinuity of some kind in sampling, opinion elicitation methodology or something else. On the other hand, it could also be measuring something real. If so, its double plus ungood for the dems. |
| Posted by:mhw |
| #10 Shipman, I think you nailed an important concept: "Life is too weird now to package." I can only add, ..."or to poll." You are the Hunter S. Thompson of RB! |
| Posted by: GreatestJeneration 2004-08-01 8:17:39 PM |
| #9 democrats have an "admiration society", where they go around giving each other awards and blowjobs and stuff.....but outside of that, I think everyone else says FUCK 'EM & FEED 'EM FISH HEADS. If the democrats didn't have the media to trumpet their |
| Posted by: Halfass Pete 2004-08-01 8:04:40 PM |
| #8 The methodology discontinuity hypothesis looks stronger. I noticed that Scot Rasmussen, who uses the same method and same sampling each day (as I recall he uses auto dial machines and calls 300 people each day - my memory might be wrong on this) http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm has no discontinuity. His polls show Kerry picking up about 1 to 2 points during the Convention period. |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-08-01 7:55:26 PM |
| #7 I mean Jeeeezuuuus what would a pollster do with our friend M4D? LOL! Think of Mr Mucky in a focus group! LOL! Guns! Babes! And KFC for lunch. Hmmmmm. See what I mean? Life is too weird now to package. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-08-01 6:15:34 PM |
| #6 Polling via phone cannot be valid within 10 percent. My Goldie Hatifield told me that and I believe it. :) He's purdy quick. Tell me why I'm wrong and show me numbers. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-08-01 6:12:01 PM |
| #5 Heh. Try as I might to find an upside for the Clintons in a Kerry victory, I see none. Which tells me he isn't going to be allowed to win. |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2004-08-01 6:04:56 PM |
| #4 Sorry, Dave, I shudda hit 'refresh' before posting. But, it shows at least two of us think that way. |
| Posted by: GK 2004-08-01 5:57:55 PM |
| #3 I'm back to thinking that Rove has someone on the inside. Or perhaps, Matt, that insider is a Clinton plant to assure a clear field for her 2008 aspirations. Then again maybe there's no need at all for dirty tricks when an arrogant,lying asshole like Kerry is running. |
| Posted by: GK 2004-08-01 5:54:57 PM |
| #2 As well as the negative bounce in the opinion polls, Kerry's negative bounce in the election betting at www.intrade.com has now reached four points; Bush shares are selling higher than they have in several weeks. "I'm back to thinking that Rove has someone on the inside." Maybe a secret operative named William Jefferson Clinton? |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2004-08-01 5:50:02 PM |
| #1 That's the kind of bounce a watermelon gets when it's dropped from a ten-story building. Polls aside, Kerry has also given us just in the last week 1- The Teletubby photo (thank you NASA: if you guys want to send a manned flight to Alpha Centauri I'm with you); 2- The faceoff with a serving Marine sergeant trying to eat his lunch and instead having Lurch's finger shoved at him; 3- The sultry look at Edwards (Ingrid Bergman didn't do any better in Casablanca); 4- The Theresa won't kiss him photo; and last but not the least 5- The You Call That A Salute photo. I'm back to thinking that Rove has someone on the inside. |
| Posted by: Matt 2004-08-01 5:31:11 PM |