#2 There is no evidence that a presumptive Kerry administration would be more sympathetic to punitive measures against Israel.
Oh really? Not even if that was a way he could rebuild ties with our "European allies", which he obviously ranks as one of his priorities? Think about it.
Kerry has boasted that he can rebuild alliances with Europe. This alliance will not come without a price. Because Kerry is no great persuader and because Europe feels it is time for America to step down and let it assert some power in international affairs (especially an affair in which they have a long and troubled historical role), he will end up realigning our Israel/Palestine policy to that of the Europeans. He will not antagonize Europe over this policy for the sake of a few blown up people in Israel.
By default, this forces him to accept Arafat as a negotiating partner, legitimizing Palestine's #1 terrorist. Modest relinquishment of American foreign policy will gain him favor in European public opinion (where anti-Semitism is on the rise, leading by principle is viewed as a naive American delusion, and a balanced approach to Israel/Palestine is non-existent). In the contest between a firm stance against Palestinian terror inside Israel and "rebuilding alliances" with our European partners, Kerry's preference is easy to infer. He will be a willing negotiator collaborator with Arafat, putting in motion the restoration of a (decaying) US/European alliance and facilitating the sanctioning of Israel. In Kerry, you may well see Israeli/American relations deteriorate and the Israeli state in real crisis.
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