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| Los Angeles Times poll shows Kerry, Bush in dead heat |
| 2004-07-23 |
| The presidential race is a virtual dead heat between President Bush and Democratic candidate John Kerry as the Democratic convention approaches, according to a Los Angeles Times poll released Thursday. Kerry leads Bush by 2 percentage points nationally in both a two-way race and in a three-way contest including independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to the poll posted on the newspaper's Web site. In a three-way contest, Kerry led 46 percent to Bush's 44 percent, with Nader at 3 percent and 7 percent undecided. Kerry's lead is within the poll's margin of error and smaller than his advantage last month in a Times poll. While 51 percent approved of Bush's job performance and 48 percent disapproved, the survey included some narrow majorities unhappy with the direction Bush has taken the country. Fifty-four percent said the nation is moving in the wrong direction, down from 58 percent in last month's poll, and 51 percent said the war in Iraq was not justified. One-third of voters said they don't know enough about Kerry to decide whether he would make a better president than Bush. The paper's June poll had similar results. Asked who is more likely to flip-flop on issues, 43 percent named Kerry and 31 percent picked Bush. Kerry's selection of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as his vice presidential candidate was well-received by those surveyed. Fifty-nine percent described the pick as excellent or good, while 26 percent saw it as fair or poor. The telephone poll surveyed 1,529 registered voters nationwide from Saturday to Wednesday. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. I ususally avoid polls because I think they are 'fuzzy' math when it comes to the elections. However if the LA Times says the race is a dead heat, you can bet the Bush has a lead between 5 to 10 points. Just prior to the recall election the LA Times said the recall measure was a 'dead heat' and that Arnold/Cruz were in a 'dead heat'. We all know what happened on election day. |
| Posted by:Cyber Sarge |
| #12 Question for all Rantburgians: Has anyone here EVER been polled? |
| Posted by: Brett_the_Quarkian 2004-07-23 10:44:28 PM |
| #11 Cyber Sarge - I was going to say that if the LA Slimes says Bush and Kerry are in a dead heat, Bush must be way ahead, but you beat me to it! ;-p I sometimes wonder why the leftist 95% of the media don't worry about losing what little credibility they have left when their lies are exposed in November, but then I remember they have no sense, and less conscience. |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2004-07-23 10:29:04 PM |
| #10 Too funny! The fact that Kerry isn't leading, but in a "dead heat" with Bush in Liberal-heavy LA, according to the LATimes is hilarious! Remember, this is the paper that predicted that the CA recall wouldn't happen. Then when it did, they predicted that Ahnold wouldn't win. Then, they tried to make that happen with those (made up) Arnold sex abuse stories. |
| Posted by: GreatestJeneration 2004-07-23 7:36:02 PM |
| #9 Bomb, People who vote 'for' Kerry are not voting 'For Kerry' as much as they are voting their hate: 'Against Bush'. All the Democrats trying to 'get out their vote' I've seen around here (Downtown Seattle) always say 'get rid of Bush' and never say 'Elect Kerry'....... Anyone else notice that? |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2004-07-23 7:20:19 PM |
| #8 Forget SF thats a lost cause. A dirty bomb could go off in the middle of the financial district next week and contaminate the whole downtown area with Al Qaida taking full credit for the act, and SF would STILL vote overwhelmingly for Kerry in November. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2004-07-23 4:33:58 PM |
| #7 A nationwide sample size of 1,529 seems awfully small to me. I dont care how 'carefully' the respondants are selected - especially, like people have mentioned, with cell phones, caller-id, skewing their results. |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2004-07-23 4:25:13 PM |
| #6 Ship/CS, I'd love to be called by one of these pollsters, just for the fun of messing with them. However, I've got caller ID and a answering machine. If we don't recognise who's calling, we let the answering machine pickup. About 75% of those calls hang-up as soon as the machine answers. I'll wager they are telemarketers and pollsters. I've heard that pollsters are having a big problem with this as caller ID becomes more common. |
| Posted by: Steve 2004-07-23 4:21:23 PM |
| #5 My point exactly Shipman. The sound that someone hears when they call my house and ask for "The Man/Wife/Voter/taxpayer of the house" is the phone being hung up. Only those people who have the time or lack any sense of belonging participate in these polls. But if the Al La Times says the race is close you can bet that Bush had a significant lead in their research. I still say that California is still in play and that Bush has GOOD chance of getting a victory here. A trip to Sacramento, LA, and San Diego right before the election might do the trick. Forget SF thats a lost cause. |
| Posted by: Cyber Sarge (VRWC CA Chapter) 2004-07-23 4:09:39 PM |
| #4 I'm interested in the (near) death of polls. Is there any decent research on the effect of cell phones and the general fuck off attitude that seems to have developed amongst the midder class? I don't see how a sample can be qualified now. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-07-23 3:28:57 PM |
| #3 So much B.S. A general sample across states has no meaning. They need to sample every single state, with a statistically relevent sample in each, as the election is decided by electoral votes and you need to determine how each states electoral votes will be awarded. An intelligent pollster might decide which states are definitely going to one candidate or another and just poll the too close to call states to make a "guess" about the outcome. |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2004-07-23 11:15:00 AM |
| #2 Jon Carroll polled several of his friends and colleagues... |
| Posted by: mojo 2004-07-23 11:12:37 AM |
| #1 Jon Carroll polled several of his friends and colleagues... |
| Posted by: mojo 2004-07-23 11:12:13 AM |