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| Egyptians warming up the toaster for Hamas? |
| 2002-06-28 |
Craig Schamp links to this UPI piece that says the Soddies have agreed that the Egyptians can dispose of Hamas.Under the guise of helping the Palestinian Authority with their reforms so called Egyptian experts will begin to appear in the West Bank and Gaza. Only they'll be intelligence operatives, and soon designated suicide bombers and their support teams will begin to disappear. The United States has extracted a promise from Egypt not to station forces permanently in the Palestinian enclave. "(The Egyptians) are absolutely ferocious" one U.S. intelligence officer says admiringly.If Hamas ever goes away, it will probably be something along these lines. Yasser's gunnies don't appear to have the strength to control them, as evidenced by Yassin's waltz out from house arrest to be the caller at the party hoedown. The House of Sod might regard them as being out of control, which would be why they'd be willing to sell them down the river. They're not the most reasonable bunch, even by Arab standards and the control seems to be vested in Syria so it's no skin of the Sods' nose if they go down — as long as they get something in return. |
| Posted by:Fred Pruitt |
| #3 I tend to agree with you. An important operation that got blown at this stage would be very unusual. It has happened, but I'd much more tend to suspect that a leak would be intentional. I'd be more inclined to the belief that somebody's "sowing grass" - planting so many blades of information that the Bad Guys aren't going to find the real ones until it's too late. To check for this, keep an eye out for an impending stream of info on plots and plans, some reasonable and some bordering on the outrageous. If the Egyptians assassinate all the Hamas and IJ ops, that's fine with me. If it's all cover, and the eventual solution to the problem involves a Greek priest inviting them all to a "peace dinner" and then poisoning all of them at once, that's okay, too. But I do think somebody, either at CIA or Mossad or some other Agency Which Cannot Be Named is working on it. |
| Posted by: Fred 2002-06-29 12:59:08 |
| #2 This is either a brilliant operation by the CIA whose cover has just been blown, or a brilliant Mossad operation whose purpose has just been served. I suspect the latter. Let me explain. Israel has become increasingly concerned about Egypt in recent months, not just because of what's emanating from its media but because of steps being taken in the WMD area and the acquisition of missiles. During recent Gaza incursions, the Israelis keep finding tunnels from Gaza to Egypt, used for smuggling (or evacuating) men and arms. The Egyptians don't seem to be doing much about this on their end. They don't seem to want to. So, a story like this is perfect. The Islamic Jihad and Hamas types, who already have reasons to be suspicious of the Egyptian government due to its treatment of their brethren in Egypt, now have to doubt any Egyptian they know. Distrust is a very effective way to disrupt the links so necessary for 4GW Netwars to continue. And if Israeli groups start making Hamas types disappear, the pre-leak diverts attention to the Egyptians and buys the Israelis time and cover. Now, let's look at the other side. What this story is about, is involvement in assassinations. Which are still a big no-no to many in Congress - the executive order against them has been "reinterpreted" but not overruled or cancelled. Against Al-Qaeda or Saddam, no-one would argue. Against Hamas and Fatah, even via proxy, means entering the war directly against the Palestinian leadership. That's a major shitstorm the Americans really can't afford right now, and if the Egyptian public believed this Mubarak would be in serious trouble. America can wash their hands, but entering the conflict on Israel's side is off-limits (and hugely foolish at this stage, given the proper priority of Iran and Iraq). As for the Egyptians, if this really was true I'd be volcanically furious at the leak. It's not an exaggeration to say it could endanger Mubarak's life if widely believed. This juxtaposition of tremendous benefit and convenience in one scenario, vs. strategic foolishness and serious political controversy in the "official" scenario, makes me damn suspicious of the official scenario. |
| Posted by: Joe Katzman 2002-06-29 09:18:28 |