After the Pakistani army's failure in its recent operation in the South Waziristan tribal area to deal a significant blow to foreign resistance fighters poised for action in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the United States have concluded that they have no alternative other than to undertake "mission impossible:" the capture of the "Shawal" base that straddles the border. To date, US-led forces have respected the Durand Line that separates Afghanistan and Pakistan, waiting for Pakistani forces to drive foreign militants, Afghan resistance fighters and Taliban into their hands from across the border in a "hammer and anvil" approach.
| That's worked well, hasn't it? |
This has proved ineffective, and security forces have told Asia Times Online that, with great reluctance and trepidation, Pakistan and the US will soon launch operations designed to secure the Shawal area. As Asia Times Online has described, "Technically speaking, Shawal falls on the Afghan side of the Durand Line that divides Pakistan and Afghanistan. (Editor's note: The border area inside North Waziristan is also called Shawal.) In reality, Shawal is a no-man's land, a place no one would want to go to unless he were as tough as the local tribespeople, a guerrilla fighter taking on the US, or, perhaps, Osama bin Laden. Shawal is a deep and most dangerous maze."
| "It's the kinda place where the cops'd only go in by the platoon, if there were any cops..." |
The Shawal area has for centuries given protection to people, explains Senator Syed Murad Ali Shah, one of the most low-profile Jamaat-i-Islami leaders, though he has been a major player in the region of Afghanistan and Iran since 1967. "The reason why descendents of the Prophet Mohammed's family are found in huge numbers in Afghanistan and along the Indus river has an historic background. After the assassination of Husein in Karbala [in 680] and subsequent clashes between members of Prophet's family and the Umayyads [Husein's killers] several members of the family fled into what is now Iraq, and they also took refuge exactly in this area where Pakistani troops are fighting to arrest foreign fighters. The Arab armies failed to access the area, and later on the Afghan tribes struck a deal with Abu Mosa Ashari that these 'foreigners' under their protection would not move anywhere. The foreigners married into the local population and spread all over the region along the Indus," the senator explained.
| Yeah, yeah. All those beturbanned goobers are descended from The Prophet. That's why they're so holy... |
Now US commanders believe they are capable of seizing this natural fortress of Shawal, where thick jungles and mountains can swallow many dozens of people without a trace. A blueprint for the Shawal action has, according to those close to the planning who spoke to Asia Times Online, has been chalked over several meetings between Pakistani President and Chief of Army General Pervez Musharraf, the vice chief of army ataff, General Mohammed Yusuf, and top US commanders, including General Abizaid, commander of the US Central Command. The Shawal targeted in the present campaign is situated in Afghanistan, but the controversial part of the plan is realization that it would be impossible for US troops not to transgress into Pakistani territory in hot pursuit of targets if the mission is to have any success. It is near impossible for any army to conduct "search and seize" operations in the jungles of Shawal. Therefore, US patrols will disappear into the jungle, and attempt to track down fugitives with satellite technology backed with helicopters. As admitted by Musharraf, few of the foreign fighters have the equipment needed to jam communication systems.
| Jammers also present a certain value to the guys with the helicopters as targeting beacons... |
According to the Asia Times Online sources, Pakistani authorities are deeply concerned over the losses incurred in the last operation in South Waziristan. Officially, the government has admitted to the death of about 50 soldiers. But independent sources and witnesses reckon the number could be as high as 800, including both military and paramilitary forces. Yet as the situation stands now, Pakistan can be expected to incur more losses. Already troops have been ordered to take up positions around the Shawal area, but in Pakistan territory. The locals are unhappy about this presence. They will be a lot less happy when US troops show up on their doorsteps. |