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Home Front: Politix
US business confidence seen at 20-year high
2004-04-06
More bad news for the Democrats.
Confidence among US business leaders is stronger than it has been for 20 years, according to a long-running measure of boardroom attitudes, as rising profits finally encourage companies to start hiring. The quarterly survey by the Conference Board confirms last week's official employment data suggesting concerns about a jobless recovery may be waning. In recent quarters, companies have been wary of hiring staff, preferring to make greater use of existing capacity, but continued growth and record profitability appears to be convincing managers that productivity improvements alone may not be enough to meet rising demand. Half the chief executives who responded to the Conference Board's lastest poll said they expected employment in their industry to rise, compared with just 12 per cent who predicted a fall - the most optimistic response on jobs since the research group began its analysis in 1976.
Posted by:Steve White

#17  BTW, I think that the labor statistics are inaccurate because they us an index of companies to determine the unemployment rate. Employment has shifted away from big companies into smaller companies that are not covered by the index. The internet and computers have facilitated this change in the job market. As an analogy the labor stats are like the S&P but the marketplace is better estimated by the NASDAQ.
Posted by: Super Hose   2004-04-07 4:15:17 AM  

#16  If I held an MBA and was out of a job, was hopeless and without prospects, I would have wasted my money getting the MBA. Holding a Masters in Business Administrations should give you a leg up in starting your own business.
For instance, I read an article in TCS the other day about how doctor's have trouble providing health care because they have so few employees that the Insurance Companies charge inflated premiums because there is so much extra paper associated with a customer that only has one or two employees - i.e. the cost of doing business cannot be effectively spread over more heads like it can be for customers with lots of employees. An MBA could team with a lawyer and form a co-operative between group of doctors and dentists. If you're an MBA and can't recognize and capitalize on that type of obvious opportunity than you should have just sent away for a Sally Struthers course in Gun Repair.
Posted by: Super Hose   2004-04-07 4:10:43 AM  

#15  I worked a "low tech" job before the e-boom (the pay was pretty good), I worked the same job during it (the pay became magnificent), and I'm working it still (pay is back to the "pretty good" level). Sure, I had friends in the tech industry who were certain that they were on the short road to easy street. I took a good hard look at switching jobs back in 1998, learned a bit about the "new economy," and kept right on doing what I was doing.

The American economy has always been cyclical with busts following booms. So what? Nobody's starving, nobody with 1/2 a wit has lost their home, and nobody's kids are going without shoes.

The recession has hurt me, though. I can't buy that Ducati 916 I wanted so I'll have to get a Kawasaki GSXR 600 instead.... oh woe am I!

Posted by: Secret Master   2004-04-06 9:14:35 PM  

#14  NMM I thought the job market in Raleigh was good? Or are you still at the call center?
Posted by: Shipman   2004-04-06 6:50:28 PM  

#13  The unemployment issue leaves me perplexed. Both before, during and after the supposed recession, my office has been unable to fill its field engineering positions. Our requirements amount to an engineering degree and a good head on your shoulders. We bring in engineers from our foreign offices every fall and spring because we can not find permanent American hires. When we do find someone, the new hire often collapses once he figures out how hard he will work. From my vantage point, well paying jobs are available, but the average American candidate does not want the work, only the lifestyle that comes with the money.
Posted by: Zpaz   2004-04-06 6:03:18 PM  

#12  Who said I was flipping burgers? Being a little presumptuous, aren’t you? For your information, I work in the financial services industry. However, I totally emphasize with those who have lost their jobs due to “downsizing” and outsourcing because it happened to me. And it was very, very difficult to get something else afterwards. It still is and the quality of work out there is nowhere near as good as before and I don’t know when things will get back to where they are before.

As for going to university to “learn”, that’s a crock of shit today. Most go because they feel it will enhance their qualifications to earn a better income in the future. That’s why I went. I saw it as an investment for the future. So far, it hasn’t paid off. And I know I’m not the only one who feels this way.

Lots of people go into nursing, but many Americans aren’t hired because hospitals can bring in a plethora of Filipinas at a fraction of the cost instead. As far as engineering goes, well, a lot of these jobs are on their way to India now. Guess the requirements for engineers are only good if you live in the Punjab.
Posted by: ANON   2004-04-06 5:20:33 PM  

#11   This somewhat defeats the purpose of going to university and obtaining advanced degrees to "better oneself", doesn't it?
Is that why you did it? No wonder you're only good to "flip burgers". I went to LEARN! I had a hunger for information, and college was the place where I was supposed to be able to get it. The first few years were great! The teachers were knowledgeable, they imparted more than just the stuff in the book, and they made what they were teaching INTERESTING. It was hard to find that kind of teacher by the late 1980's, though. By then, half my classes were taught by TAs, not Professors. Most of them knew only slightly more than I did, and had a hard time even getting that across. I learned more by reading the textbook, reading a couple of outside references, and - where I could - talking to a few people in that field. Today, "University" is a racket, designed to separate parents and students from as much money as possible, while providing as little as possible in the way of product. Quite a few companies have developed "lists" (can't call them "blacklists" - that might express a prejudice) of schools they won't hire graduates from, because degrees from those campuses are worthless.

Another major problem with "getting a degree" is the number of people getting degrees in fields that are already glutted. There are far more openings for nurses than there are for English Literature majors, but guess which one has the higher graduation rate. You can't blame the labor market when people get degrees in social sciences, and the requirements are for engineers.
Posted by: Old Patriot   2004-04-06 4:51:42 PM  

#10  f*ck yeah they should, least they have a job. My mom worked a bunch of shitty jobs raising us, never bitched once about it, was happy to have the work & stayed off the dole. Most people in the U.S. ain't seen hard times yet. Too many whiners, work two jobs if you have to.

Oh really? This somewhat defeats the purpose of going to university and obtaining advanced degrees to "better oneself", doesn't it? I'm sure if a lot of these advanced degree holders knew that they'd be destined to flip burgers they probably wouldn't have wasted all that money for school to begin with!
Posted by: ANON   2004-04-06 4:18:32 PM  

#9  "all those underemployed MBAs and IT professionals should feel "privilieged" flipping burgers ar Wendy's?"

-f*ck yeah they should, least they have a job. My mom worked a bunch of shitty jobs raising us, never bitched once about it, was happy to have the work & stayed off the dole. Most people in the U.S. ain't seen hard times yet. Too many whiners, work two jobs if you have to.
Posted by: Jarhead   2004-04-06 4:04:12 PM  

#8  Hi NMM! How about those Huskies! Too bad about Duke, thought they'd win it all.
Posted by: Shipman   2004-04-06 3:45:28 PM  

#7  please keep in mind that a job is a privilege, not an entitlement. Life is tough, and anyone who fantasizes that it is otherwise is walking through a wilderness of mirrors.

Sooo...all those underemployed MBAs and IT professionals should feel "privilieged" flipping burgers ar Wendy's?
Posted by: ANON   2004-04-06 1:47:34 PM  

#6  Steve, thanks for posting this. I needed to see this (am off to a job fair today)! And good luck to all the Rantburgers out there looking for work, too!
Posted by: Desert Blondie   2004-04-06 12:59:57 PM  

#5  I lost my IT job about a month after 9/11. I don't blame Bush. To do so would be stupid. No, I blame the asshole I worked for, may fleas infest his genitals. Took me nearly 5 months to find a new job, overall my new job is much better than my old one. I make a lot more money and actually work less on average.
Posted by: AllahHateMe   2004-04-06 11:07:43 AM  

#4  But... But... But... SKerry said these numbers were 'fixed' and it was all a fraud by Fat Cat rich people.... (like Kerry himself...).
Posted by: CrazyFool   2004-04-06 10:14:36 AM  

#3  While I sympathize with anyone who has lost his job through downsizing and “outsourcing,” please keep in mind that a job is a privilege, not an entitlement. Life is tough, and anyone who fantasizes that it is otherwise is walking through a wilderness of mirrors.

I have during the past few years increased my income through hard work and dedication to the task at hand. But I have not once changed my standard of living. Why? Because I believe that any moment I may be unemployed (or that the privilege of employment may be revoked). To believe that the job we now have we will have in the near distant future is to look through just one of many not-so-gentle-kind mirrors.
Posted by: Dragon Fly   2004-04-06 8:27:51 AM  

#2  1.3m jobs lost is still pretty bad. I was one of those affected and it sure as hell wasn't easy to find another one. I'm working now, but i have to say the quality of work available pales in comparison to what was there before.
Posted by: ANON   2004-04-06 1:50:07 AM  

#1  Econopundit has a couple of graphs up, and a link to the bls which wonders if their job loss numbers were off by about 50%.

Can you imagine loss of 1.3m jobs instead of 3.2m?
Posted by: Anonymous2U   2004-04-06 1:30:32 AM  

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