AUSTRALIA faced a growing risk of a terror attack in the leadup to the federal election because al-Qaeda perceived the recent Madrid bombings influenced Spain’s election outcome, a leading United States intelligence analyst said. Dr George Friedman, chairman of private sector intelligence company Stratfor, said Australia was at risk of a terrorist attack because of its involvement in Afghanistan; Iraq had not increased that risk, he said. Dr Friedman said Australia was a target because it was perceived to be an ally of the US and because there was a large enough local Muslim population to allow terrorists to move freely. He said Australia was also a soft target with no tradition of high security. "Al-Qaeda is very rational and very thoughtful. It has succeeded immensely in Spain," he said. "Its read of the Christian world remains intact which is that Christians can no longer take casualties. They are weak and corrupt. That has been confirmed in Spain from their point of view."
| Australia's got lots of land, an entire continent's worth. Lots of room there for pious men with turbans and automatic weapons to build lots of mosques. |
Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the March 11 terrorist attack in Madrid in which 10 bombs exploded on four peak hour commuter trains killing 191 people. "They (al-Qaeda) are looking to isolate the US from its allies. You have an election coming. They have now noted what they can do to an election. I think, lacking any specific intelligence, Australia would be foolish not to take it seriously." Dr Friedman, visiting Australia for business, also warned that Australian troops could end up fighting in Afghanistan and Pakistan by year’s end as the US pursues its endgame against al-Qaeda. He said that military commitment would be a down payment on the free trade agreement with the US.
I sure hope there is more to it, than that. The majority of Australians value the US alliance, as was demonstrated again this week, when polls show the majority rejected the opposition’s call for withdrawing troops from Iraq
"If the US goes into Pakistan it will want as many allies with it as it can have," he said. "Australia has been taken to the mountaintop and shown what a free trade agreement could look like. It has also not been given it yet. Come November, if Bush wins or even if Kerry wins all of this is going to come to a head and Australia can come away with a very sweet deal. But it won’t get it if it won’t participate. A crisp clear decision has to be made on a particular policy - what will the position of the Australian government be on Afghan security and on committing special forces, the SAS particularly, to operations in Pakistan. You have a decision coming very soon."
This is sounding like stand-over tactics. Not a good tactic with Aussies.
| This is the first I've heard of this. It sounds like opinion to me, though I'd certainly be in favor of free trade with Oz — not as payment for services rendered, but because the two countries are close enough that we don't have to do things on that basis. |
Dr Friedman said Australian Special Air Service (SAS) troops proved indispensable to the US in operations in Afghanistan in 2001. He said there was no question the US wanted them back because it had insufficient of its own special forces trained for long range reconnaissance. "What the Australian SAS brings to bear is trained, skilled and experienced personnel now," he said. "You’ve got them, we need them, we’ll pay for them."
| No we won't. We'll ask our friends. They'll help if they can. |
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