The report of a major operation against Al Qaida’s No. 2 Ayman Zawahiri was another bad bill of goods sold by Pakistan President Musharraf to the United States or, more specifically, to Secretary of State Colin Powell. Despite numerous appeals, the United States continues to make do with Pakistan’s promises while being denied access to the tribal areas where Bin Laden and Zawahiri are located. Simply put, only a few score U.S. intelligence agents are on the Pakistani side of the border. Their role is limited to observing the operations by Pakistani troops in the tribal areas along the Afghan frontier. When a Pakistani unit commander pulls his troops out of one village, saying nobody was found, CIA liaisons can do nothing but nod.
Here’s the basic force structure of the attempted pincer operation against Bin Laden and Zawahiri: There are about 2,000 U.S. Special Forces and 500 British commandos and Afghan troops, the latter serving as liaisons and interpreters. About 7,000 army and paramilitary troops are on the Pak side. But Western forces cannot cross the Pakistani border. The Pak force and the U.S.-led forces are not linked by a command and control facility. Information from the CIA and the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency flows to Musharraf. This means the Pakistanis know everything the U.S. knows about Bin Laden, but Washington doesn’t know exactly what the Pakistani forces are doing. The Pakistani Army operation appears impressive in its scope and efficiency. But the army has little intelligence in the South Waziristan, where Al Qaida leaders are believed to be hiding. Local police and paramilitary forces have a lot more intelligence, but they are regarded as corrupt and thoroughly aligned with tribes that benefit from Al Qaida’s presence. The Pakistani Army can’t even understand the Pashto dialects without plenty of local help.
But the biggest problem is that the Pakistani military hasn’t even found the considerable foreign security force protecting Bin Laden and Zawahiri. Nobody has yet seen evidence of the 055 Brigade, the large and mostly Arab force composed of Egyptians, Saudis and Yemenis that guards the leadership. The only foreigners being uncovered are Chechens and they are so integrated into the local community that any attack on them would be an assault on the entire tribal infrastructure. Pakistani troops, which sustained heavy casualties in attacks by tribal fighters, aren’t ready to pick another fight. The bottom line on the search for Bin Laden: Don’t hold your breath. |