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Terror Networks
Hamid Mir sez Binny's got nukes
2004-03-21
Osama bin Laden's terror network claims to have bought ready-made nuclear weapons on a Central Asian black market, the biographer of al Qaeda's No. 2 leader was quoted telling an Australian television station. In an interview scheduled to be televised Monday, Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir said Ayman al-Zawahri claimed "smart briefcase bombs" are available on the black market. It was not clear when the interview between Mir and al-Zawahri took place.
November, 2001. Apparently the writer was too lazy to look it up. But I don't write for a major news service, so I could find it in under a minute.
U.S. intelligence agencies have long believed al Qaeda attempted to acquire a nuclear device on the black market but said there is no evidence they ever succeeded. In the interview with Australian Broadcasting Corp. television, parts of which were released Sunday, Mir recalled telling al-Zawahri it was difficult to believe al Qaeda had nuclear weapons when the terror network didn't have the equipment to maintain or use them. "Dr. Ayman al-Zawahri laughed and he said: 'Mr. Mir, if you have $30 million, go to the black market in Central Asia, contact any disgruntled Soviet scientist and a lot of ... smart briefcase bombs are available,'" Mir said in the interview. "They have contacted us, we sent our people to Moscow, to Tashkent, to other Central Asian states and they negotiated and we purchased some suitcase bombs," Mir quoted al-Zawahri saying. Al-Zawahri's boast would not in itself prove the al Qaeda has actually succeeded in acquiring nuclear weapons.
What part of "purchased some suitcase bombs" doesn't fit with that thesis?
Al Qaeda has never hidden its interest in acquiring nuclear weapons. The U.S. government indictment of bin Laden charges as far back as 1992 he "and others known and unknown, made efforts to obtain the components of nuclear weapons." And in 1998, a Russian nuclear weapons design expert was investigated for allegedly working with bin Laden's Taliban allies. It was revealed last month Pakistan's top nuclear scientist sold sensitive equipment and nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea, fuelling fears the information could have also fallen into the hands of terrorists.
If al-Qaeda has nukes of any sort, I'd expect them to have come from Abdul Qadeer Khan, ready-made, just light the fuse...
Mir describe al-Zawahri as "the real brain behind Osama bin Laden." "He is the real strategist, Osama bin Laden is only a frontman," Mir was quoted saying during the interview. "I think he is more dangerous than bin Laden."
Posted by:Dan Darling

#12  If they had them, I think we'd already know. The hard way...
Posted by: tu3031   2004-3-21 11:30:12 PM  

#11  Shouldn't these suitcase a-bombs be detectable? If it's possible to detect medical radioactive waste in a garbage truck (there's a lot crossing the border into Detroit from Canada), it should be possible to detect a suitcase bomb.
Posted by: Rafael   2004-3-21 10:12:29 PM  

#10  Having the raw materials and knowing you can make a thing go boom, versus actually making a nuclear explosive device - those are two nearly completely different things.

I agree, but just exploding a device that contains some Uranium would be enought to cause major panic. If they were smart, then would then announce this was a demonstration of a capability to deliver a nuclear bomb. Also if they were smart they would do it in a European capital. Doing it in the USA would almost certainly result in shutting down nuclear facilities in Iran, Nork, etc. by force.
Posted by: phil_b   2004-3-21 6:30:38 PM  

#9  I am sure Old Spook knows far more than me about how nuclear devices are built than I do. However, I do know something about electronics. Atomic bombs were built before the invention of the transistor, and what we understand today by electronics. Prior to this time computers used big, hot and very unreliable valves, which certainly would not be used in building a bomb. Therefore is possible to build a bomb with just fissionable material and explosives. The radio-active material may well hose up the explosives but that would take some time, and means you would take a just-in-time approach of incorporating the explosives near to the time of detonation. Safety is hardly an issue to suicidal jihadis.

It is dangerous to assume that because a particular way of doing something is the standard or usual way, it is therefore the only way.
Posted by: phil_b   2004-3-21 5:36:05 PM  

#8  You guys took the words outta my mouth. It is highly unlikely that AQ could maintain a nuke even if they were to get one. In addition there is no way for them to test a nuke without detonating it so most likely if they did actually buy something from the russians it was suitcases full of radioative medical material.
Posted by: Damn_Proud_American   2004-3-21 5:26:33 PM  

#7  ..Old Spook speaks extreme wisdom. Even the simplest and most reliable warheads in the US inventory are - to put it gently - maintenance intensive. Without going into too much detail, they require fairly sophisticated storage and upkeep, none of which Al-Q is likely to have. A large portion of the old Soviet missile force was absolutely useless within a surprisingly short period of time after the collapse - if Binny and the boyz have suitcase bombs (not impossible, but unlikely for a bunch of reasons, and they would be fairly hefty suitcases, not briefcases), all they are is expensive doorstops.
And re the gasbag I mean, Hamid Mir, let me give a quick logic test: If it was possible to get these things into the US to explode one - not bluster about hidden bombs and capabilities - why hasn't it already been done? I'm very sure OS knows the answer to that, and it's not hard for anyone else to figure out in a general manner.

Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski   2004-3-21 10:38:00 AM  

#6  One overlooked thing:

These suitcase nukes were put together in the late 1970's and early to mid 1980's, at best.

That means they are all approaching 20 years or more in age.

Nuclear weapons decay. They hose the electronics up. They eventually hose up the detonator explosives since they are in close proximity wih the radioactive core. And eventually the decay makes the pit (core) "less pure", possibly to the point where it will not sustain fission.

Thats why the US has big plants to reprocess the warheads on our nuclear weapons.

Also, not to be overlooked, is that nuclear weapons are based on easily and readily replicated scientific facts, but extrememly difficult engineerign problem, and requires intricate & robust electronics and machine-work.

Having the raw materials and knowing you can make a thing go boom, versus actually making a nuclear explosive device - those are two nearly completely different things.
Posted by: OldSpook   2004-3-21 10:13:05 AM  

#5  I guess a "Smart Briefcase Bomb" delivers itself?
Posted by: Frank G   2004-3-21 9:35:16 AM  

#4  I believe that Al Qaeda bought and paid for suitcase nukes. I don't believe that they work. Remember the old Russian proverb, "Trust, but verify?" Hopefully, there are Russian scientists having a good laugh at their seaside villas bought with Al Qaeda money.
Posted by: Anonymous   2004-3-21 8:32:38 AM  

#3  what i last read on the subject of suitcase nukes suggested that Russia during the cold war left 100 or more 'suitcase nuke' in American cities so if there was ever a 3rd world war they could detonate them in sneaky first strike. I understand that the ex head of the KGB (i think) actually publicly said/says around half of these suitcases have gone missing - no one knows what happened to them according to him> Hes on record as saying all this.A good bit of googling should dig up more details. From memory i think the suitcase nukes are said to use the components from soviet 230mm (i think) nuclear artillary shells.Scarey stuff but i'm not convinced binny and his buddies have one and even if they did i'm not sure they'd be able to use it,i'd imagine thier 'locked and coded' as such to prevent meddaling.
Posted by: Jon Shep U.K   2004-3-21 5:13:51 AM  

#2  more arab camelshit braggadocio--why use civilian planes if you have a suitcase bomb-its more likely al zawahiri's head turns up in a suitcase carried by taskforce 121 to be delivered to the pentagon than aq has a suitcase A bomb
Posted by: SON OF TOLUI   2004-3-21 1:19:02 AM  

#1  I thought the suitcase nukes were supposed to be a myth?
Posted by: Paul Moloney   2004-3-21 1:18:54 AM  

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