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Iraq

Iraqâs economy declines by half - BBC Corespondent is dumbstruck

2003-10-11

EFL
The scale of the task facing the United States and ~~several other countries~~ the international community in Iraq has been highlighted by the first detailed figures since the conflict ended on the state of the Arab countryâs economy. Iraqâs economy will shrink 22% this year, having fallen 21% in 2002 and 12% in 2001, the United Nations and the World Bank have estimated.
Thatâs amazing. Where are the productivity numbers for March and April? Why are they so low?
The figures, which have been published ahead of a major meeting of donor nations, suggest that reconstruction work in Iraq will be slower to take effect than originally hoped.
Based on projections obtained from Mrs. Greenâs eight grade mathematics class in Racine, WI. — they are covering story problems.
Average income in Iraq fell from $3,600 per person in 1980 to between $770 and $1,020 by 2001 and will be just $450-610 by the end of 2003, the UN and World Bank said.
Check the divisor on that one. I expect there are fewer people in the country currently as opposed to 2001.

1980 was also just before Sammy decided to use all the country's money for an 8-year war with Iran, followed by Gulf War I, followed by sanctions. Did anybody think his economy was going to grow?

Even by the end of 2004, the two organisations estimate that average income could be lower than in 2001.
Estimates provide by CBE (Crack Baby Entreprises) and the independent firm (MLEBSS inc) My Lucky Eight Ball Says So.
Plans to restore oil and gas production, refining, and pipeline capacity remain unclear.
Its pretty clear to me what the new capacity of the pipeline to Syria is - 0.0 gpm

So they're saying that without new oil and gas production, income's expected to fall? That'd certainly be the case in Soddy Arabia. In Iraq, with a free market economy, if such a dip (actually a continuation of decline) took place, it'd be temporary.

Posted by:Super Hose

#3 Where did the older figures come from? Perhaps they come from a dictatorial government with an iron hand on everything? Perhaps that goverment -- like all the others of its type before -- inflated the figures to make things look better than they really were?

No, no... that can't be it.

Posted by: Robert Crawford 2003-10-11 10:32:14 PM

#2 Ain't our fault they keep blowing up their own pipelines.

Posted by: Tom 2003-10-11 7:30:23 PM

#1 Even by the end of 2004, the two organisations estimate that average income could be lower than in 2001.

It is worth noting the high income figures in 1980, was just prior to the first of Saddams military decisions, and the lowered numbers more than likely reflect the oil 'embargo' in addition to decades of war, internally and externally.

It is also worth noting that neither the UN nor the World bank have any basis for these numbers: they are just guesses and given the sources are more than deserving of the scorn they should be receiving.

A nation usually collects economic statistics from just a few points and extrapolates for the rest of the economy as to the condition of the economy 'as a whole.' The number are accurate from the base, but the extrapolation may be way off.

I suspect if the US lets Iraqis themselves determine how their economy will go ( they leave businesses and producers alone, that is) Iraq will most likely embarass the living sh*t out of both these sorry organiations.

It is something to hope for at least.

Posted by: badanov 2003-10-11 3:04:58 PM

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