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| Terror Networks | |
| More from Pepe Escobar, after Jakarta | |
| 2003-08-08 | |
| More "interesting" stuff from Pepe THE ROVING EYE Jihad virus attacks Pentagon logic By Pepe Escobar BANGKOK - Pentagon spin, via Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, has it that "Iraq now is the central battle in the war on terrorism." Al-Qaeda’s No 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, aka The Surgeon, has proved Wolfowitz, the Pentagon’s No 2, wrong. Proved? Al-Zawahiri had warned "the American people" that what they had seen so far were only the "initial skirmishes" of a war. Two days later, a devastating bomb at the Marriott Hotel in southern Jakarta killed at least 16 people and wounded about 150, most of them Indonesians, not Westerners. The International Islamic Front, or call it the al-Qaeda global franchising business, was just waiting for an opening. The Bush administration’s logic in its "war against terror" is that security does not exist unless martial hygiene is fully imposed. What is "martial hygiene" Military showers? Security is arguably much tighter in the United States and Europe after September 11, 2001. But how do you secure a huge archipelago like Indonesia, spread out over the sea like a string of pearls for more than 5,000 kilometers? Answer: You dont defend. You attack. Pressure on the government of President Megawati Sukarnoputri is useless. Pressure to do what? And why is it useless? The United States cannot have it both ways. After faithful military servant Suharto had outlasted his usefulness, I seem to recall he fell after an economic crisis Washington said it wanted democracy in Indonesia - but with no resurgence of Islamist sentiment. But there are various degrees of Islam in Indonesia, from the tolerant, tropical, soft Southeast Asian version to the kick-out-the-foreigners-let’s-bring-the-caliphate-back brand of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). Whats the point?that we cant accept moderate Islamist sentiment in Indon - obviously we can. Everybody for the moment seems to agree that Jemaah Islamiyah is behind the Jakarta bombing as it was behind the Bali bombing of last October 12. The timing of the Jakarta bombing may be related to the fact that this Thursday an Indonesian court is to deliver its verdict on Amrozi, the first person to go on trial over the Bali bombing. And the trial of Abu Bakar Bashir, the alleged leader of JI, is also due to reopen. But the most important fact is that Hambali, aka Riduan Isamuddin, is still on the loose. Hambali is the de facto, No 1 in JI. He is No 1 on Southeast Asia’s most-wanted list. And he is also a senior al-Qaeda operative. The administration of US President George W Bush still has not understood that jihad - this worldwide anti-American jihad - is not an enterprise. Its broader than one enterprise, but tends to operate through a number of enterprises, many of which are linked. Jihad is based on individual commitment. It operates as a nebula. How does a nebula operate? It spreads like a virus. Al-Zawahiri sends a signal on tape and a cell somewhere with strike capability seizes an opportunity. They have to have money and training. We can stop that. And if they lose in enough places, that can change the AQ claim to success and divine favor, and thus can impact recruitment. Intelligence agencies repeat that dozens of plots have been foiled these past few months. But not all of them. This is news? Indonesia will always be a prime target - a fragile link in security terms, crammed with US interests. Crammed? In his tape, al-Zawahiri says something crucial: "We are saying to America one thing: What you saw with your eyes so far were only initial skirmishes, for the real battle hasn’t even started yet. Therefore it is upon the American people whose armies have killed our women and children, if they care about their future and their future generations to come, to start relying on their mind and logic before it is too late to repent." How is this crucial? European intelligence sources in Brussels have told Asia Times Online that the US strategy in Iraq is something like a Spanish bullfight. By showing a red rag - in the form of an occupation force - the Bush administration expects to attract all manner of hard-to-find Islamist bulls. According to this logic, it would be easier for the Islamist bulls to attack American soldiers than to attack Americans around the world. The flypaper strategy. Ive seen it cited as defense for the otherwise stupid "bring em on" remark. Maybe its true. But its hardly the main strategic justification for going into Iraq. The problem is, the bulls are not playing the game. There’s no hard evidence up to now - and not a single arrest - of jihadis attacking the Americans in Iraq. Of course, as the occupation drags on there’s a strong possibility of Afghan-trained jihadis increasingly relocating to Iraq. But the jihadi virus is global. It manifests itself in attacks in Africa one attack in the last 2 years, in porous Indonesia 2 attacks in the last 2 years, the first of which resulted in rolling up a large part of JI - this second attack doesnt look like its bringing down the Indon state, but turning it harder against JI, in the daily attacks in Afghanistan despite which, the central govts authority slowly grows. in the presumedcapacity of JI to strike sooner or later in Thailand, Malaysia or even fortress Singapore. Paul Wolfowitz and the Pentagon will have to revise their logic. Martial hygiene is not working. The Bush administration’s first reaction to September 11 was to try to destroy al-Qaeda. But Osama bin Laden could not be captured. Ayman al-Zawahiri could not be captured. Mullah Omar, the Taliban leader, could not be captured. thats cause we havent dealt with pakistan yet. So the screenplay had to be changed, to Wolfowitz’s original idea: smash Saddam Hussein. Evil metamorphosed from Osama to Saddam. Saddam may be gone, but al-Qaeda remains, and on top of it the US now faces a national liberation struggle not according to most iraqis in Iraq that is led neither by remnants of the Ba’ath Party nor by al-Qaeda, but by Iraqi Sunnis and Shi’ites alike. Then why is the Shiite region so quiet. And why are all the captured guerillas Baathists? And why are there tactics so militarily sophisticated? Only a long-term, carefully elaborated political strategy would be able to contain this worldwide anti-US jihad. Yes, thats true, but Iraq is part of that political strategy. Democratization and modernization. Which go hand in hand with the military strategy. What’s Pepe’s political strategy? There’s no possible military solution. You can’t kill a virus with a barrage of TOW missiles. But you can kill the thugs who stop you from administering vaccines. And, according to al-Zawahiri, "The real battle hasn’t even started yet."
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| Posted by:liberalhawk |
| #5 "Like a virus", is it? So how do you stop a virus? You first trace, and then break the vectors by which it spreads, then eradicate the infestations. With luck, the hosts survive... |
| Posted by: mojo 2003-8-8 9:17:18 PM |
#4 to start relying on their mind and logic before it is too late to repent So, do we rely on our minds and logic--which is telling me to kick your asses until you can wipe your butts through your nostrils--or do we go against rational, humanistic, logical thought, and subjegate ourselves in front of your god and "repent" for whatever you imagine to be our sins, al-Zawahiri? ****** Jesus. Obvioulsy there is not a word in the jihadi vocabulary for irony, oxymoron, or self-contradictory. *com: Thanks for the good read. |
| Posted by: Celissa 2003-8-8 6:13:32 PM |
| #3 *com- Boo Yah! |
| Posted by: Craig 2003-8-8 5:16:19 PM |
| #2 Pfeh. Pepe's full of Pepe. It is more than obvious that AQ has been hurt, splintered, and scattered by efforts thus far. The most effective AQ-specific were the military demolition of the Taliban and the ongoing efforts to track down and remove access to funding. A number are in custody in various locations - and except for those held by Iran - they are obviously out of action for now, if not actively singing their little shrunken hearts out. It's hard to see this story as anything but a paid-shill's attempt to demoralize anti-AQ efforts. He thinks he's got Wolfowitz's number - which is pretty funny. I would suggest that Wolfie's a coupla hundred times smarter that Pepe on his best day. Several statements are factually incorrect, such as "no hard evidence up to now - and not a single arrest - of jihadis attacking the Americans in Iraq" - refuted in several reports by military interrogators. LH points out others, such as the claim that the Shi'a and Sunnis are united in a liberation struggle against the coalition. Bullshit - all the action is in the Ba'athist buttwipe triangle. He wants readers to believe that only some political accomodation (read: appeasement) will ameliorate, not solve, the "worldwide anti-US jihad". Bullshit. First we won't play that game anymore. It didn't work throughout the 90's - things only became worse. The jihadis are NOT viruses, they are men. Their beliefs are NOT going to prevail - unless we just give up. Their abilities can be greatly hampered by intelligence - to stop funding and arms and freedom of movement. A HUGE step can be taken if we either pressure or force other Govts to stop giving them cover - via all the means that nations can support them - and sabotage our efforts. When located, they can be killed - or better yet - sent to Gitmo (Oooooohhhh!) and wrung dry. If we are willing to bite the bullet and root out where they can hide (Iran, Saudi, Egypt, SyrLeb, Indo, Malay, Paki, etc) and stop their seditious activity in the West, right under our noses, we can stop this idiocy. We will have to deal with these "countries" - whatever it takes, and we will have to deal with our own laws so our freedoms are not used against us. We will have to deal with the Pepe Escobars, too, and ascertain their motivations and their purposes, for subversion and sabotage can come from mere words and access to media outlets. Scary? Yep, you damned right it is - to everyone. It will hurt and it will be costly and it will frighten many. Such is the nature of war. And this is a war of survival. We can do it intelligently or stupidly with a heavy hand, but do it we must as it is about survival - and that includes the survival of the shitheads who are the tools and fools of the enemy. We just have to get smarter every day and tougher every day and persevere. We have to get down, dirty, and bloody - and kill this pathogenic threat to freedom. |
| Posted by: ·com 2003-8-8 3:50:37 PM |
| #1 Crap journo for Asia Times who makes Robert Fisk look like a professional.Fell for the "Al-Qaeda Nuke Hoax".Jihadunspun is more fun. |
| Posted by: El Id 2003-8-8 3:30:14 PM |