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Syria-Lebanon
Iraq war shocks Syria to change
2003-07-15
So something is actually happening?
DAMASCUS (RTRS): The party with a stranglehold on power for decades suggests it will back out of politics. Schoolchildren, long uniformed as cadets in an army comprising the whole of Syrian society, are told to get new clothes. Both changes hint that the shock of seeing Saddam Hussein give way to US occupation in neighbouring Iraq could speed what many hope is a break with Syria's authoritarian legacy. But even optimists time the move with a calendar, not a stopwatch.
There are probably dictators who've given up power willingly. I just can't think of any after Cincinnatus off the top of my head...
The dilemma of President Bashar al-Assad remains — how to ease the militarism of Syrian society and remake the socialist economy he inherited from his father and predecessor, without undermining his own authority and unleashing chaos? "Was all this in the pipeline since the president took office and picked up speed because of Iraq?" asks Frank Hesske, head of the European Union delegation in Syria, of a decree by the ruling Baath Party vowing not to meddle in politics. "I would tend to say it was, but you still can't expect the head of state here to accede openly to US demands. There remains this almost philosophical problem of managing change without the fear of instability, with zero margin for error, which is what the government feels is its situation."
It's called "a rock and a hard place," damned if you do, damned if you don't...
The decree, lauded in the state press ahead of publication last week, was the latest in a string of gestures widely read to mean Syria has taken to heart US rhetoric about forcing change in the region, one way or another. After Baghdad fell and US hawks turned their attention to Syria — accusing it of supplying the dying Iraqi government with arms, sheltering fugitives and developing chemical weapons — the Education Ministry announced Syrian boys and girls would swap their military khaki shirts for blues and pinks.
That always helps...
More concretely, Damascus turned back or expelled Iraqis who crossed its border and steered clear of interfering with the occupation of Iraq, while making it plain that it did not want confrontation with Washington, diplomats say. Even as Syria protested last month over the detention of Syrian border guards wounded in a US attack on a convoy thought to be carrying aides of Saddam, Foreign Minister Farouq al-Shara stressed his wish for dialogue and "quiet diplomacy."
"Like, no gunfire, y'know? Us Syrians hate gunfire..."
Syria's tone after the fall of Baghdad has not gone unnoticed among those in Syria who saw the younger Assad's intentions for reform put to the test, with results that showed reform would be gradual and limited. His pledge of "modernisation" — understood to mean political and economic liberalisation — after taking office in 2000 spawned political debate clubs whose participants dared to demand an end to martial rule and criticise official corruption. Tolerated at first, the forums grew numerous and stridently critical of the Baath, until they were closed in 2001 and several leading participants tried and convicted on charges such as advocating insurrection and inciting sectarian strife.
Kind of "Let a hundred flowers bloom," only without... ummm... only with... ummm... only different.
They are back, on a smaller scale, with one recent meeting in a patrician Damascene home devoted to the question of what the US conquest of Baghdad could mean for Syrians who want less of their state, but none of Washington's. "It's despotism that builds the foundation for all such defeats," says one speaker, suggesting there was now an opportunity to advance the cause of political liberty.
Best way to do that is by advancing the cause of personal liberty. We haven't seen that happen in any Arab country yet...
Posted by:Fred Pruitt

#5  "Freedom is considered a disease in places like Syria and Iran."

An infectious disease, is the Wolfowitz theory, i think.
Posted by: liberalhawk   2003-7-15 3:15:26 PM  

#4  In Taiwan they had to wait for Chiang Kai Shek to die.
Posted by: Fred   2003-7-15 1:52:40 PM  

#3  Dictators that have given up power willingly: I think both South Korea and Taiwan had dictatorships that morphed into democracies. Somewhere in there someone had to give up a bit of power. Oh, and there is also General Pinochet, who gave up power willingly.

It is a short list and only includes Western allies.
Posted by: Yank   2003-7-15 10:46:36 AM  

#2  The first Gorby of the ME.

This should be very interesting.
Posted by: Anonymous   2003-7-15 12:51:03 AM  

#1  Freedom is considered a disease in places like Syria and Iran. If Syria does fall without the force or American arms, then the impact of the Second Gulf War is truly astounding.
Posted by: Douglas De Bono   2003-7-15 12:09:51 AM  

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